AL Central: The other Twins outfield prospect
May 28 2026
Photo courtesy of St. Paul Saints
When speculating on outfield talent in the Twins minor league system, most of the focus has been on Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Gabriel Gonzalez, and rightfully so—those three ranked 1st, 2nd, and 11th respectively in our Minnesota organization report this offseason, with Jenkins (#9) and Rodriguez (#49) both landing on the HQ100 as well.
Two months later, Jenkins and Rodriguez are both on the injured list, and while Gonzalez got a cup of coffee with the Twins over the weekend while Tristan Gray was on paternity leave, his .217/.294/.394 line at Triple-A suggests he still has a lot of work to do. But there is a less-heralded Twins outfield prospect who has been tearing it up in the minors this season who deserves to be noticed: Hendry Mendez.
Mendez is a 22-year-old who received a 7C rating in the Minor League Baseball Analyst. The Twins acquired him from the Phillies at the trade deadline in 2025, and he proceeded to hit .324/.461/.450 over 142 PA at Double-A Wichita for the remainder of the season. He followed that up by batting .300/.391/.500 over 23 PA in the Arizona Fall League, and .281/.363/.494 over 102 PA in his 2026 return to Double-A. But it's at Triple-A St. Paul that he's really taken off: he's batting .385/.500/.585 over 80 PA, with 15 walks to 10 strikeouts. That has also come with a massive 29% LD%, 91.3 mph exit velocity, and a 52.9% HardHit% that ranks in the 93rd percentile.
He's forcing his way into the Twins plans at a good time, too—with Jenkins and Rodriguez hurt, there's less competition for any major league roster spot that opens up, and there seems to be a way that could happen soon. Mendez's defense is considered to be pretty average, and he's not fast enough to play CF (he's stuck to LF and RF in the minors, and only LF, DH, and 1B for the Twins), so he could be a DH/1B option to take playing time away from a struggling Josh Bell (.221 BA, .628 OPS). And it's well past time for the Twins to give up on James Outman (.167 BA, .509 OPS, 56% ct%, 25 xPX, .175 xBA), so his roster spot could go to Mendez.
And even if that doesn't pan out in the short-term, Mendez is positioning himself to be a part of the Twins future at some point, be it later this season or in 2027. Keep an eye on his progress.
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In 2025, Kenley Jansen posted his best ERA (2.95) since 2021 while earning 29 saves for the Angels, but underneath that sparkling surface stat were some very shaky skills: the lowest K% (24%) and K-BB% (16%) of his career, the highest fly ball rate (57%) of his career, and the second-worst xERA (4.46). That was enough for us to close his commentary in the 2026 Baseball Forecaster with the following line: “May find new closer job in free agency, major risk of losing it mid-year.”
An ugly blown save by Jansen on Sunday against the Orioles (3 ER, 2 BB, 1 HR over 1 IP) might be bringing that risk to the forefront, as his 2026 ERA now sits at 5.02 (and 6.43 over the last 31 days), with a 4.19 xERA that indicates his poor performance hasn't been that fluky. He's walking more batters than ever (13% BB%), though his 35% Ball% and 61% FpK do suggest he could improve a little going forward. His fly ball rate is now 62%, and his HR/F is at a career-worst 20%; that mark is unlucky, but when you're allowing that many fly balls, you're going to give up your fair share of homers.
Jansen is with the Tigers on a one-year contract with a $12M club option for 2027 that Detroit seems likely to turn down, so the team doesn't have a long-term commitment to think about. And A.J. Hinch and the front office are undoubtedly feeling pressure to turn things around after a 21-34 start; changing closers would be an attempt to do just that.
Of course, Jansen has been helped by the fact that his two main competitors, Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest, haven't been turning in their best work either. Finnegan has a stellar 1.82 ERA, but 19 walks to 15 Ks, and the kind of lousy xERA (5.80) you'd expect to come with that. He has a litany of skills at career-worst levels: 5.80 xERA, 18% BB%, 14% K%, -3% K-BB%, 40% Ball%, 9.7% SwK. Even if the Tigers were to hand him the closer role—and they're probably as aware of these problems as we are—he'd be a riskier fantasy investment than Jansen.
Vest is sporting a 7.88 ERA and 1.50 WHIP that almost certainly eliminates him from save consideration, especially after he allowed five 8th-inning runs to lose a game Tuesday night. To be fair, he's been ambushed by a 45% strand rate, and his 3.71 xERA isn't so bad, but he'll likely have to bring his surface stats down before getting a shot to replace Jansen.
Beyond those two, there just aren't any clear candidates. From a skill standpoint, the next best option is probably Drew Anderson (29% K%, 18% K-BB%, 14.6% SwK, 3.33 xERA), but the Tigers have been keeping him stretched out as a long reliever and spot starter, and haven't really tested him out in high leverage situations (0.83 Leverage Index). Maybe a 1.80 ERA gets Brenan Hanifee a shot, but a 12% K%, 4.3% SwK, and 4.34 xERA make him highly unsuited to be a closer; he's not the answer. Tyler Holton does own a 26% K%, 13.9% SwK, and 3.18 xERA over the last 31 days, but his overall ERA is 4.56; still, his eight saves in 2024 might be enough to get him some consideration.
The lousiness of the entire Detroit bullpen might spare Jensen in the short-term, but without a skill turnaround, that major risk of losing his job mid-year still applies. If he's on your roster, it would be wise to prepare for that possibility. (Post-script: Wednesday night's Jansen injury now makes that possiblity a reality.)
Chicago's starting pitching depth has taken a hit recently, at a time when they could really use it. Noah Schultz was placed on the IL Tuesday with patellar tendinitis in his right knee, which is the same injury that caused him to miss most of the second half of 2025. The White Sox called up David Sandlin from Triple-A to take Schultz's spot in the rotation, and if he's able to pitch well, there is definitely an opportunity to stick in the majors for a while.
Under normal circumstances, Erick Fedde would be on his way out of the rotation by this point, as an 8-ER debacle in his most recent start now has his full-season ERA at 5.47, and his xERA at 5.27. Unfortunately, the most likely candidates to replace him are either injured or struggling:
- Shane Smith is still on the Triple-A injured list after suffering a rotator cuff strain back at the beginning of May. There have been no updates on his return, and given that he had a 5.27 ERA and 13% BB% over four Triple-A starts prior to his injury, it's unlikely that he would return to the majors right away when he does finally resume pitching.
- Tanner McDougal, the #4 prospect on our White Sox organization report, was pitching well through six starts at Triple-A (3.00 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 28% K%), but left his last start on April 29th after 13 pitches with forearm tightness, and there have been no further updates on his condition.
- Hagen Smith, the #6 prospect on our White Sox organization report, got off to a great start at Triple-A (1.38 ERA, 1.00 WHIP over 4 GS), but has struggled badly ever since: 6.53 ERA, 1.74 WHIP over 20.2 IP, with 22 walks to 28 Ks. It seems unlikely that Chicago would call him up during a rough patch like this.
- Jonathan Cannon has a 7.39 ERA and 1.83 WHIP at Triple-A.
- Drew Thorpe is still on the 60-day IL after Tommy John surgery in March 2025, and had an appendectomy that further delayed his return. He has yet to begin a rehab assignment.
- Ky Bush is still on the 60-day IL after Tommy John surgery in February 2025, and reportedly had a recent setback that will delay his return until sometime in the second half.
Sandlin's opportunity here might last at least a month, if not until the All-Star break. (Unfortunately, the same applies to Fedde.) The 25-year-old righty is a 7C prospect who posted a 0.75 ERA and 33% K% over four Triple-A starts, though a 12% BB% suggests he will have some control issues in the majors.
It has been just shy of three weeks since the Guardians blew up their catching situation by demoting Bo Naylor and trading for Patrick Bailey, a move that was motivated by a desire to improve the team's defense behind the plate, but also by Naylor's .143 BA and .438 OPS. Bailey has been doing his best Naylor imitation since joining Cleveland, batting .120 with a .465 OPS, which is still better than the .146 BA and .396 OPS he posted with San Francisco. And Austin Hedges is batting .239 with a .659 OPS, his best numbers since 2018, which sadly makes him the Babe Ruth of this bunch.
If the Guardians ever tire of the lack of offense from their catchers (or face an injury), they do have a pair of options at Triple-A who have actually been hitting: Cooper Ingle, a 7B prospect who ranked 9th on our Cleveland organization report, and 25-year-old Kody Huff, who is not considered a prospect, but is certainly hitting like one. Ingle is batting .337/.504/.618 with 7 HR and a 1.25 Eye over 121 PA (he missed some time in late April with a hip injury), while Huff is batting .307/.408/.523 with 7 HR and a 0.77 Eye over 179 PA. Ingle has played exclusively at C and DH, while Huff has put in time at 1B and 3B in addition to his work behind the plate, suggesting the team likes Ingle's defense a little better. And he's by far the more likely of the two to get a call-up in 2026. Also see Chris Blessing Ingle report in his latest Eyes Have It entry.
It's looking less likely that Naylor will be brought back to the majors, barring a miraculous turnaround in his performance. He was sent to the Guardians' spring training complex in Arizona back on May 10th for a reset without the daily rigors of game activity, and he has yet to be sent to Triple-A. At this point, he's probably fourth on the Cleveland catcher depth chart behind Ingle, and possibly even fifth behind David Fry, though it's pretty clear the Guardians don't view Fry as an everyday catching option. Naylor will be arbitration-eligible in 2027, which will make him a non-tender or trade candidate; at this point, getting a fresh start with a new organization might be the best thing that could happen for his career.
League-wide, the Royals' offense ranks in the bottom ten for runs scored and OPS, and some of the disappointment over that can be pinned on Vinnie Pasquantino, who has followed up a career-year (.264 BA, .798 OPS, 32 HR) with a career-worst season so far (.203 BA, .623 OPS). He has actually still been halfway decent against RHP (.237 BA, .718 OPS, 83% ct%, 0.91 Eye, 90 PX, AAd QBaB), with a 25% hit rate holding him back. It's against lefties that he has really fallen off: .113 BA, .289 OPS, 66% ct%, 0.17 Eye, 0 PX, FBf QBaB over 57 PA.
Manager Matt Quatraro sat Pasquantino against the last left-hander they faced, Connelly Early, on May 20th, only the second time that's happened all season. But considering his struggles against southpaws this year, it might start happening more often. Salvador Perez is always an option at 1B, but since the team sent Elias Díaz to Triple-A this week, in order for Perez to fill in at first, Carter Jensen would need to catch against a lefty; he has done that 50% of the time, but his .210 BA, .575 OPS, and 73 PX vs. LHP this year isn't helping his cause.
Instead, could Jac Caglianone could be the one to pick up some starts vs. LHP at 1B, his original position? Two weeks ago, we suggested that the Royals should give a surging Caglianone more playing time against lefties, and his power skills continue to look good in May: 126 HctX, 113 PX, 117 xPX. The production isn't there yet against LHP (.191 BA, .519 OPS), but a 98 PX and 90.6 mph exit velocity (up from 85.3 mph last year) against southpaws suggests he can improve if given the chance.
The Royals are scheduled to face MacKenzie Gore on Friday. If Pasquantino is out of the lineup for that game, we might be seeing a shift in his usage.
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