RELIEVERS: Buy skills upside not results downside

This week, we compare actual ERA and expected ERA (xERA) for year-to-date and also for the past 30 days, and pull 10 names at each end of the scale. The key to this exercise is that ERA and xERA in-season trend towards each other. Neither is particularly static. So you get the full first 12 weeks and you get the last four weeks to examine and draw conclusions. And there are some nice tidbits in here.

First, here are five relievers who have stellar actual ERAs and less stellar xERAs:

                          YTD             L30
                   =================  ==========
YTD                Sv Hd   ERA  xERA   ERA  xERA
=================  == ==  ====  ====  ====  ====
J.Kelly (BOS)       0  8  1.17  4.12  0.00  3.99
P.Baez (LA)    ...

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