Nola, K. Marte, Suzuki, Neris, McNeil

Nola has enjoyed a strong 1H … It was a disappointing 2023 season for Aaron Nola (RHP, PHI) as he finished with a 4.46 ERA in 193 IP. He has rebounded in 2024, sporting a 3.38 ERA through 119 IP. What’s behind the improved performance?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2021	181	4.63/3.48	5%/30%	5%	13.3%	41/19/41	33/62	14%	92.7	183
2022	205	3.25/2.94	4%/29%	4%	13.0%	44/20/37	30/69	10%	92.6	191
2023	194	4.46/3.80	5%/25%	5%	12.2%	43/20/38	30/66	16%	92.4	150
2024	119	3.38/3.44	5%/24%	6%	11.3%	44/20/33	29/73	15%	91.9	149

A dose of S% regression has been a big part of it:

• His 2023 ERA was inflated by S% misfortune, as evidenced by xERA. That has regressed in Nola’s favor in 2024. Notice his 2024 BPX is essentially the same as 2023.
• He hasn’t had a BB% higher than...

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