(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Andujar, Givens, Perez, M. Gonzalez, and Bruce

Andujar produces profit... With playing time in 2018, Miguel Andujar (3B, NYY) provided a profit with a .297, 27 HR, 92 RBI, and 83 R performance and $28 R$. With a spot in the Yankees lineup and a top-100 selection in NFBC leagues, what can he provide in 2019?

Year   AB  HR    BA   xBA   vL    vR   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX  xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ==  ====  ====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  ===  ===  ====
2016^ 282   2  .255   N/A   N/A   N/A    7   84     N/A    30   N/A   57  N/A   N/A
2017* 488  18  .303  .283 1.333 1.600    6   84  57/14/29  33    97  103   81    0%
2018  573  27  .297  .295  .822  .869    4   83  44/20/36  32   110  133   99   16%
^AA MLEs
*Includes MLEs

Andujar can provide contributions in four categories: 

• While his xPX and 92.7 MPH exit velocity on FB/LD point to league-average power, increasing his HctX and FB% bode well for 2019. In September, he posted a 45% FB% with a 103 xPX. With pop vL (148 PX) and vR (127 PX), he has the power for another 25-28 HR in 2019. 
• His ct% and xBA support a batting average that can help fantasy rosters. Bank on a BA repeat in 2019. 
• He carried over his AAA-success vL (1.099 OPS) and improved vR (.769 OPS) in the majors. Andujar posted a 37% hard-contact rate vR and a 46% FB% vL. 

Continuation of his September FB% increase would help Andujar's chances for more home runs in 2019. With an above-average HctX and average xPX, count on 25-28 HR for now. Luckily, he hasn't traded ct% for the long ball, and his xBA supports a batting average that can boost a roster's BA. His four-category contributions and skills (77 BPV) are a fact, and they back a high-$20 repeat. 

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Givens is in line for saves... Although the Orioles will have a different lineup in 2019, Mychal Givens (RHP, BAL) is back after posting eight saves with a 2.94 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in the second half of 2018. After his  4.8 Ctl in the first half, Givens had a 1.8 Ctl and 4.1 Cmd in the second half. How do his skills look for 2019?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl   Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F   H%  S%  hr/f  BPV   LI
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  ==  ==  ====  ===  ====
2015   30  1.80  2.61  1.8  11.4  6.3  63%  13%  39/30/31  29  80    5%  174  0.79
2016   75  3.13  3.64  4.3  11.6  2.7  59%  15%  35/25/39  32  78    9%  104  1.10
2017   79  2.75  3.61  2.9  10.1  3.5  57%  13%  43/17/40  26  81   13%  125  1.13
2018   77  3.99  4.08  3.5   9.3  2.6  56%  12%  36/24/39  29  66    5%   99  1.34

His skills (99 BPV) leave him as a late-round closer option: 

• His SwK come largely from his four-seam fastball (11% SwK), but his slider (14% SwK) and change-up (14% SwK) also create swings and misses. He misses enough for bats for a 9.0+ Dom. 
• Missing the zone early with below-average FpK adds risk to elevated Ctl in 2019, as he won't be able to sustain his 1.9 mark from the second half. 
• While his 75% career S% vouches for slight improvement, his 2018 xERA casts some doubts on his ratios. 
• Rising LI says he had the trust to close in 2018, but Baltimore will have a new manager in 2019.    

Givens' below-average FpK will continue to add Ctl risk, and his xERA increase does not support a 2017 repeat. On the positive side, his SwK backs continued strikeouts. With an increasing LI, Givens should be clear for some save opportunities. Given his team context, the chances may be fewer, so bid on 20 saves and somewhere near his xERA. 

 

Perez sustains power... After improving his HctX and xPX in 2017, Salvador Perez (C, KC) sustained his HctX, xPX and FB% in 2018. Even with a .235 BA, his 27 HR, 80 RBI, and 52 R provided $12 R$ at a weak position. Can we target his skills for consistent power behind the plate?

Year   AB  HR    BA   xBA   vL    vR   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX  xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ==  ====  ====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  ===  ===  ====
2014  578  17  .260  .265  .632  .710    4   85  39/21/40  28   115   95  106    9%
2015  531  21  .260  .268  .560  .775    2   85  42/21/37  27    88   99   87   12%
2016  514  22  .247  .246  .763  .710    4   77  35/18/47  28   105  116  107   12%
2017  471  27  .268  .266  .788  .794    3   80  33/20/47  28   123  121  142   15%
2018  510  27  .235  .255  .702  .717    3   79  35/20/45  25   133  115  149   15%

Perez's power is worth targeting: 

• He backs his mid-20's HR power with plenty of barrels, as his 8.1% Brls/PA ranked 29th in MLB in 2018. His above-average HctX and xPX support sustained power in 2019. With consistent FB%, he has enough power for another 25+ HR performance. 
• Even with a decent ct%, some poor fortune (25% h%) hurt his 2018 batting average. His HctX and xBA back a BA closer to league average in 2019. 
• Although it appears he slipped vR, a 24% h% hid a 120 PX and 46% hard-contact rate vR. 

When looking for power and consistency, Perez can maintain his mid-20s HR power with his HctX, xPX,  and FB%, and his Brls/PA and HctX support his current hr/f. Expect a few more points in batting average in 2019, as a poor h% affected his 2018 efforts. With four double-digit R$ seasons in the last five years, Perez's power and consistency are worth an investment. 

 

Gonzalez looks for at-bats in MIN... In 2018, Marwin Gonzalez (OF, MIN) couldn't match his .303, 23 HR, 90 RBI, and 8 SB final line from 2017. His .247, 16 HR, 68 RBI, and 2 SB performance only resulted in $8 R$ in 2018. With news that he signed with the Twins, what should we expect in 2019? 

Year   AB  HR/SB    BA   xBA  bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX/xPX  hr/f  Spd  SBO
====  ===  =====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  =======  ====  ===  ===
2014  285   6/ 2  .277  .253    5   80  52/18/30  33    92   92/ 68    8%   91   8%
2015  344  12/ 4  .279  .265    4   78  44/23/33  33   109  107/100   14%   94  11%
2016  484  13/12  .254  .253    4   76  47/21/32  31   102   94/ 99   12%   98  17%
2017  455  23/ 8  .303  .283   10   78  44/20/36  35   104  132/ 94   18%   82   8%
2018  489  16/ 2  .247  .246   10   74  42/23/36  30   105  101/123   13%   90   4%

While he lost skills (26 BPV) in 2018, he can still chase double-digit R$ in 2019: 

• If he can find the at-bats, his xPX and HctX support another 14-16 HR. His 93.4 MPH exit velocity on FB/LD ranked 123rd in MLB, but his hr/f from 2017 isn't returning. 
• Although his HctX stayed consistent, losing ct% and his xBA claim that his .300 BA from 2017 is not in the cards. WIth a 78% career ct% and his LD%, he can provide a batting average near his .264 career BA.
• A 37% h% vR propped up his .946 OPS vR in 2017, and his .722 OPS vR returned to his .740 OPS career vR. 
• With below-average Spd and a waning SBO, it's difficult to count on more than a handful of SB for 2019. 

For those owners looking for multi-positional players outside of the top 200, Gonzalez's eligibility at 1B, 2B, SS, and OF fits the mold. If owners find a HR total in the teens acceptable, his xPX and HctX say he has enough for a power repeat. Even though the .300 batting average from 2017 was a fluke, his HctX and LD% support a batting average bump from his five-year low in 2018. His Spd and SBO prevent us from counting on many steals in 2019, but he can provide enough counting stats to chase $10 R$. 

 

Bruce moves coasts... Injuries limited Jay Bruce (OF, SEA) to a .223, 9 HR, and 37 RBI performance in 319 at-bats in 2018, which halted a three-year streak of 26+ HR seasons from 2015-2017. In December, Bruce was traded from the New York Mets to the Seattle Mariners. With health, what do his skills suggest about returning to his previous power levels? 

Year   AB  HR    BA   xBA   vL    vR   bb%  ct%    G/L/F   h%  HctX   PX  xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ==  ====  ====  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ====  ===  ===  ====
2014  493  18  .217  .240  .556  .685    8   70  45/21/34  27    99  122  109   15%
2015  580  26  .226  .256  .666  .754    9   75  37/19/44  26   115  140  144   13%
2016  539  33  .250  .279  .678  .872    7   77  37/22/41  27   119  147  152   19%
2017  555  36  .254  .267  .718  .883    9   75  33/21/47  28   122  143  161   18%
2018  319   9  .223  .236  .660  .688   11   76  28/24/48  26    94   94  126    8%

If he's healthy, he can be a cheap source of power: 

• Back and foot injuries may have played a role in his three HR in 212 first-half AB, as his six second-half HR in 107 second-half AB were backed by an 158 xPX. With a 127 career xPX and 16% career hr/f, he has enough power for another 20+ HR.  
• While Bruce has struggled more vL with a .709 career-OPS vL, his .816 career OPS and 29% career-h% vR back improvement vR in 2019. 
• His increased bb% is a good sign, and his league-average ct% and .247 career BA support a BA closer to league average.  

When he returned from 66 days on the IL in 2018, his .811 OPS with six HR in 107 AB demonstrated that his power is still present. His 158 second-half xPX and 53% FB% say he has power enough left for 25 HR. Seattle is more favorable to LHB (10% LHB PF) than Citi Field (0% LHB PF). With league-average ct% and good plate discipline, his batting average should finish around league average. With health, Bruce can return to double-digit R$. 

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