2025 Prognosticating Successes, Part 1

The leaves are turning, the days are turning crisp and cool, and the Halloween decorations are up (early!). So...it's time for some post-season action! While we tune in to that, it's time to reflect back on how BaseballHQ did in our pre-season predictive player analysis.

Here, we review the "hits" — where the BaseballHQ process foretold a spike or dip in performance. Most of these commentaries appeared either on the site in the pre-season or in the 2025 Baseball Forecaster. Each provides a concrete example of how our projection model and the analysis that stems from it continues to put you in a position to win your league.

Hitters are covered this week (stats in most cases are HR-RBI-SB-BA); pitchers will be covered next week.

Wilyer Abreu: Will not be considered an end-gamer in many leagues, but he's available at a reasonable rate in many of them (305 ADP). The quality of his batted balls in 2024 was excellent: 91.6 mph EV, 19.1 LA, 10.8% Brl%. He put up a .530+ Slg in both July and August before tiring in September. There's some hidden 20+ HR appeal here. (Nickrand)
2024: 15-58-.254 in 397 AB
2025: 22-69-.247 in 373 AB

Jo Adell: Finally found regular MLB PA, and enjoyed a stellar August before oblique strain shelved him in early Sept. Swing-and-miss will always be part of his game, but so will the power and in-season plate skills. QBaB bumps were encouraging. SB% tempers our running game hopes, but age, pedigree still intrigue. With more gains... UP: 30 HR, .240 BA. (Thompson)
2024: 20-62-15-.207 in 405 AB
2025: 37-98-5-.236 in 526 AB

Orlando Arcia: Plate skills, PA barely prop up inconsistent profile, and QBaB isn't optimistic. More LD woes, lack of speed helped fuel h%, BA plunges. 2nd half HR bump helped, but xHR says it wasn't deserved, and average power is capped by chronic GB%. Only defense kept him in PT. Some regression likely, but this smells of... DN < 400 PA (Thompson)
2024: 17-46-.218 in 551 AB
2025: 3-13-.202 in 203 AB

Cody Bellinger: 2023 skills never fully supported output, but 2024 retreat wasn't bad by today's standards. More durability nourished stable plate skills, plus Spd, and kept floor under BA. Average power also aided by another 500+ PA. SB drop-off looks overdone. Past injuries have fueled inconsistency. With health, capable of another uptick. (Thompson)
2024: 18-78-9.266 in 516 AB
2025: 29-98-13-.272 in 588 AB

Michael Busch: Results looked almost identical to 2023 MLEs, but made important adjustments to foster growth. Ct% still rough, but in-season progress encouraging. Sat vs some tough LHPs, but made strides against them. Most importantly, hit the ball harder and higher, with xHR, xHR/F, QBaB hinting at still untapped power... UP: 30 HR (de Leonardis)
2024: 21-65-.248 in 496 AB
2025: 34-90-.262 in 524 AB

Junior Caminero: Preseason favorite for ROY contention missed nine weeks in minors with multiple left quad strains before Aug promotion. Showed off lightning-quick bat with exit velocity to match while maintaining average ct%. Barrel rate impressive given strong GB tilt. Still quite young, with a bright future. Invest. (de Leonardis)
2024: 6-18-.248 in 165 AB
2025: 45-110-.264 in 602 AB

Kerry Carpenter: Missed 2 1/2 months to spine inflammation, then mashed. Can he build off 2024? PRO: Again chose violence vR, taking castigation to new levels; maxxed out QBaB in 2nd half; sustained superlative xPX. CON: Two spine-related IL stints since 2022; share of PA vL has tumbled (26%-21%-12% '22-'24). Power is real, so are risks. (de Leonardis)
2024: 18-57-.284 in 264 AB
2025: 26-62-.252 in 433 AB

Corbin Carroll: Swing tinkering likely led to baffling first-half swoon. But post-June, the growth trend one would expect from a mid-20s budding superstar reappeared. Note the depressed h% lasted ALL YEAR, meaning that whopping second half could have been even better. With in-season upticks in Brl%, HctX, xPX, FB% the next step is... UP: 30+ HR (Hershey)
2024: 22-74-.231 in 589 AB
2025: 31-84-.259 in 564 AB

Willson Contreras: Fractures to forearm (May) and finger (Aug) took him offline for a spell, but the per-PA production was (again) on point. The ct% dip at his age is worth monitoring, but QBaB, Brl% and HR/F's remarkable consistency stem the tide of concern. One of the safest ~.260/20 HR bets in the catcher pool. (Hershey)
2024: 15-36-.263 in 301 AB
2025: 20-80-.257 in 490 AB

Pete Crow-Armstrong: The SB total stands out; he's an impact speed source. But check out his 2nd-half adjustments at the plate: vL+, ct%, batted-ball quality, power metrics all took step up and raise his ceiling. Elite defense guarantees him PT, which could lead to... UP: .260/20 HR/40 SB (Hershey)
2024: 10-47-27-.237 in 372 AB
2025: 31-95-35-.247 in 591 AB

Tyler Freeman: On surface, struggled in first extended MLB run, but there are a few positive signs... 1) Exit velocity, launch angle took steps up; 2) Contact rate went from good to great in second half; 3) 22% MLB hit rate did him no favors. Positional versatility hints at a useful deep league utility profile. (Nickrand)
2024: 11 SB, .207 BA in 334 AB
2025: 18 SB, .281 BA in 377 AB

Adolis García: Regression was expected, but not to this extent. While xPX said it was just 2022 all over again, pitch data revealed that fastballs devoured him. A sore knee, treated postseason, may have been a factor. But for a late-peaking hitter on the wrong side of 30, a slowing bat is an ominous sign. If that continues... DN: 20 HR (Truesdell)
2024: 25-89-.224 in 576 AB
2025: 19-75-.227 in 507 AB

Maikel Garcia: Stats point to a step back, but skills mostly say otherwise. Exit velocity and improving contact are pieces to build on. Of course, his value now is clearly tied to SB. Expect a regression there, as history says a 95% success rate won't hold—and xSB agrees. But expect everything else to improve, at least a little. (Truesdell)
2024: 7-58-37-.231 in 575 AB
2025: 16-74-23-.286 in 595 AB

Hunter Goodman: One-trick pony hits a lot of 'em skyward. Unfortunately, the overly large majority find gloves. Some carry to the seats, though, meaning 25-HR upside with the PT, and he does have catcher eligibility. That's enough to keep him on your radar - if the BA doesn't kill you. (Truesdell)
2024: 13-36-.190 in 211 AB
2025: 31-91-.278 in 540 AB

Riley Greene: Terrific growth season for budding star; just-okay contact rate his only real governor. Elite barrel rate/exit velocity means there's more power to tap, as xHR suggests. Hits lefties well enough, too. Regression calls for power step back, but... UP: 30 HR (Truesdell)
2024: 24-74-4-.262 in 512 AB
2025: 36-111-2-.258 in 600 AB

Austin Hays: Down season riddled by poor health (calf, hammy, kidney infection) and big dip vR that might threaten PT. But if you use 2023 as a baseline, most of his core metrics remained unchanged: ct%, HctX, xPX Spd. A rebound to that 2023 stat line still makes him a usable piece. (Truesdell)
2023: 16-67-5-.275, $9 $R in 520 AB
2024: 5-20-2-.255, $-11 $R in 239 AB
2025: 15-64-7-.266, $14 $R in 380 AB

Iván Herrera: Had a strong first full season in the majors during 2024 (.301 BA, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 5 SB in 258 PA). There are several reasons for optimism here, including a doubling of his walk rate in the second half (7% to 14% bb%), a solidification of his contact rate (76% to 78% ct%), and a huge leap in his ability to make contact at ideal angles (23.1% to 38.2% LA Sweet Spot). He's a second catcher who could easily emerge as a primary backstop option in 2025. (Nickrand)
2024: 5-27-5-.301 in 229 AB
2025: 19-66-8-.283 in 388 AB

Carson Kelly: Injuries have former top prospect masquerading as journeyman catcher, as mid-season trade to TEX marked his third club in two seasons. 2nd half ct%, Eye, Brl% are intriguing; full season of health facilitated recovery in his expected power metrics as well. Now, if he could just match health with opportunity... UP: 15 HR (Larson)
2024: 9-37-.238 in 281 AB
2025: 17-50-.249 in 369 AB

Shea Langeliers: Last year, we described his ceiling as "bomb power", and in 1st half, bomb went off; in 2nd half, skills were diffused a bit as Brl%, xPX retreated, but QBaB holding strong was good sign. ct% gains helped lift xBA, hinting that BA may soon stop hurting value. Wouldn't take much for next step to be $20 season. (Kruse)
2024: 29-80-4-.224, $13 R$ in 482 AB
2025: 31-72-7-.277, $21 R$ in 481 AB

Ramón Laureano: Move to ATL helped restore ct%, power to degree not seen since 2021, and while 2nd half BA wasn't legit, the rest was him reclaiming skills he'd already owned. Even vR+ suggests he can still handle everyday role. If health, opportunity align... UP: 20 HR. (Kruse)
2024: 11-33-.259 in 286 AB
2025: 24-76-.281 in 441 AB

Brandon Lowe: Another year of wondering what might have been, as oblique strain put him on IL in April, seemed to hinder his 1st half. vL+ offers hope he can break free from platoon constraints, and 2nd half xHR, xPX, xHR/F all say he can get back to 30+ HR upside if injury-free. Health grade counters that you absolutely cannot pay full price for that. (Kruse)
2024: 21-58-.244 in 385 AB
2025: 31-83-.256 in 507 AB

Kyle Manzardo: Scuffled badly during initial call-up (.570 OPS, .208 xBA), then returned in Sept to hit .270 w/ 5 HR, .268 xBA in 69 PA. Extreme FB% with only average ct% creates risk of BA slumps, and jury's still out on prowess vs. LHP (20 PA sample). Work in progress, but power looks ready to flourish. (Kruse)
2024: 5-15-.234 in 145 AB
2025: 27-70-.234 in 470 AB

Noelvi Marte: 80-game PED suspension in March sidelined him until early June. That made for mostly disastrous season, as plate discipline collapsed and power skills took a hit. Could need a fresh start; 2023 MLEs suggest he could bounce back with double-digit HR, SB at discounted price. (Kruse)
2024: 4-18-9-.210 in 229 AB
2025: 14-51-10-.263 in 339 AB

Josh Naylor: HR outburst was pleasant surprise, but couldn't sustain 1st half Brl% and HR/F, reaffirming xPX's longstanding skepticism of plus power. However, there was nothing fluky about his plate skills, and his BA should rebound with a h% bounce. Bet on another $20 season, just with more balance between BA, bombs. (Olson)
2024: 31-108-.243, $18 R$ in 563 AB
2025: 20-92-.294, $33 R$ in 547 AB

Andy Pages: Hot start at AAA led to quick promotion and was good enough to stick around for most of season. Big jump in ct% was an encouraging sign in first taste of majors, and he did it while maintaining plus power. If contact gains hold, age, FB%, PX history all point to... UP: 20+ HR (Rudd)
2024: 13-46-.248 in 403 AB
2025: 27-86-.272 in 581 AB

Vinnie Pasquantino: Missed final month of the season (thumb fracture), but up to that point looked like a solid growth year. Continues to pair excellent ct% with consistent hard contact (HctX, xPX) that hints at potential further HR growth. If h%, HR/F, and health cooperate, a career year could look something like... UP: .280 BA, 30 HR (Rudd)
2024: 19-97-.262 in 496 AB
2025: 32-113-.264 in 621 AB

Jeremy Peña: Increase in SBA%, SB% rebound fueled SB spike. Improving ct% will provide solid BA to also suppport SB opps. But high GB%, poor xPX say power is stuck in neutral. A return to 20+ HR seems unlikely, even with all that volume, but rock-solid floor and speed still make him a sound investment. (Rudd)
2024: 15-70-20-.266 in 602 AB
2025: 17-62-20-.304 in 493 AB

Geraldo Perdomo: He's being drafted much more as a deep league MI than a starting SS (552 ADP). His market price remains low due in part to the knee surgery that wiped out two months from his 2024 season. Nonetheless, Perdomo showed elite rates of chase and whiff in 2024, and his exit velocity and launch angle trends hint at more upside at the plate. The loft in his swing won't help his BA, but when combined with more hard contact, it adds intrigue to his profile. Profit plays don't get much better than this one. (Nickrand)
2024: 3-37-9-.273 in 337 AB
2025: 20100-27-.290 in 597 AB

Cal Raleigh: Second straight year with 2nd half power barrage; this time it even came with ct% spike. Improvement vL (13 HR, 144 PX) was masked by 15% h%, and even got active on the basepaths (though that won't likely stick). Should once again be a premier power source at a scarce position. Just surround him with a little BA cushion. (Rudd)
2024: 34-100-.220 in 546 AB
2025: 60-125-.247 in 596 AB

Ben Rice: Reached majors in June, but bat went cold by mid-July and was sent back down in Sept. Contact issues got worse in 2nd half, so BA risk is real, but spicy power tools (xPX, xHR/F, Brl%) and FB% stroke is a potent combo. Loses catcher eligibility, but could be a cheap source of power if given the chance. (Young)
2024: 7-23-.171 in 152 AB
2025: 26-65-.255 in 467 AB

Julio Rodríguez: Fell short of first-round expectations, but three reasons why we aren't concerned: 1) xHR, 2nd half Brl% and xPX say power should bounce back; 2) July ankle injury likely drove late SBA% dip, but was still adept on basepaths; 3) Track record at this age is unmatched. Ramp those expectations back up—a rebound is likely. (Bloomfield)
2024: 20-68-24-.273 in 567 AB
2025: 32-95-30-.267 in 652 AB

Kyle Schwarber: We figured he'd rack up a ton of R, HR, and RBI again; the passable BA was a pleasant surprise. Modest ct% rebound with fewer FBs gave it some legs, but h% spike ultimately limits repeat odds. Power skills remain elite—xHR says he could re-join 40-HR club — he racks up PA, and he's OBP gold. (Bloomfield)
2024: 38-104-.248 in 573 AB
2025: 56-132-.240 in 604 AB

Marcus Semien: Modern day ironman with another 700+ PA season, but with some chinks in the armor? SBA% low led to single-digit SB, BA dip wasn't all h%-induced given 2nd half xBA slide, lowest PX/xPX combo in years. Perhaps just an off year, but can we expect more mega-volume AND and a rebound at this age? DN: <20 HR (Bloomfield)
2024: 23-74-.238 in 646 AB
2025: 15-62-.230 in 470 AB

Tyler Soderstrom: Will lose catcher eligibility in most leagues in 2025, and his marginal .224/.304/.410 batting line seemingly won't make him an attractive 1B target either. That said, Soderstrom's batted ball quality grew substantially in 2024: 89.3 to 91.8 mph EV, 5.7 to 9.1 LA, 6.0% to 13.9% Brl%. That's a recipe for a potential breakout in 2025. (Nickrand)
2024: 9-26-0-.233 in 189 AB
2025: 25-93-8-.276 in 561 AB

Kyle Stowers: Did not take advantage of the extended run he got with the Marlins in 2024 (.208 BA, 3 HR, 24 RBI in 209 PA). There was a lot to like in his batted ball quality, though (91.0 mph EV, 12.3 LA, 10.9% Brl%). Poor bat-to-ball skills held him back (61% ct%). He has struggled mightily this spring, but the potential for power and production are palpable if he can make better contact. (Nickrand)
2024: 3-24-0-.208 in 192 AB
2025: 25-73-5-.288 in 399 AB

Spencer Torkelson: His second half in 2024 gives us hope that he's turned the corner; but then again, so did his second half in 2023. At 413 ADP, he's a reserve pick in a standard 15-team league, so if the gamble doesn't pay off, you're not losing much. Given his flashes in both 2023 and 2024, it's not a bad gamble as a late reserve option. Probably better than chasing someone who flashed in Double-A in 2024. (Cederholm)
2024: 10-37-.219 in 342 AB
2025: 31-78-.240 in 563 AB

Ezequiel Tovar: Adjusted swing plane seeking more power and xHR says it worked. However, average EV and mediocre Brl% suggest this is his HR ceiling. xBA warns of BA downside (h% doesn't normally rise with an FB% spike), and how many 22-year-olds get worse at swiping bags in this context? Don't bet on a repeat. (Pyron)
2024: 26-78-6-.269 in 655 AB
2025: 9-33-5-.253 in 360 AB

Justin Turner: Late-career resurgence of 2023 proved unsustainable. Still-sturdy plate skills and LD stroke set a solid BA/OBP floor, but trends in HctX, Brl%, xHR/F all look like Father Time winning out (as he always does). That's not to say there's no more value to be wrung here, but if the snowball starts picking up steam... DN: <400 PA. (Pyron)
2024: 11-55-.259 in 460 AB
2025: 3-18-.219 in 169 AB

Mark Vientos: Broke out in a big way in 2024. The Baseball Forecaster has his xHR/F at 23%, which suggests a touch of HR downside when compared to his actual HR/F (26%). There's also his 63% ct% in the second half last year. There's too much regression risk to pay the price, and not a lot of upside from that ADP. If you pony up, understand just how much risk you're taking on. (Cederholm)
2024: 27-71-.266 in 413 AB
2025: 17-61-.234 in 424 AB

Taylor Ward: Triumphant return from scary beaning that ended his 2023: Traded some ct% for pop, with great success per Brl%, QBaB. xHR and xPX both jumped back toward 2022 peaks, and even hint at further power upside. PA history, health grade say another 600 PA-season is not a given, but if it comes... UP: 30 HR (Murphy)
2024: 25-75-.246 in 585 AB
2025: 36103-.228 in 579 AB

Masyn Winn: His 2024 ADP represents either a gross misunderstanding of his 2024 season, or an expectation of significant growth in 2025. While he put up reasonable numbers, there are reasons to be concerned. The first is his 69% SB% in 2024, which, if it continues, would reduce his opportunities to run. The second concern is his lack of power — while he did hit 15 HR, his 9 xHR shows his downside, as does his 77 xPX. He needs some skills growth to even match his 2024, making a breakout year much less likely. We would avoid him at his current ADP. (Cederholm)
2024: 15-27-11-.268 in 587 AB
2025: 9-51-9-.253 in 491

Christian Yelich: Back problems cost him a month in April/May, then disc surgery shelved him for good in July. In between, some of the best skills of his career: new high in ct%, a few more FBs to goose HR total, best SBA% since 2019. Back issues create real downside, but still-intact skill set makes him a tempting target at a discount. (Murphy)
2024: 11-42-21-.315 in 270 AB
2025: 29-103-16-.264 in 573 AB

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