Toronto hurler gets top billing vs Giants

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Today's Overview/Schedule/Weather: We've got an abundance of risk today, with less than a third of today's starts getting a “recommended” rating. The majority of games will also begin in the evening, with only three matinee starts scheduled (SF@TOR tip things off at 3:07 ET). There's a bit of weather threatening a handful of games today (LAA@PHI, SD@WSH, and BOS@CHC), so make sure to keep an eye on those matchups.

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Notable Starts:

Eric Lauer rebounded from a mini-slump in June with a couple of solid PQS scores in his last two outings (including a PQS-5 vs LAA). He'll get the Giants at home today; San Francisco has struggled vs LHP (77 wRC+, .275 wOBA), and their 26 K% supports his top overall strikeout projection. While a fantastic 19 K-BB% backs Lauer's excellent seasonal numbers, there is some risk as he hasn't consistently cleared five innings (just three times in eight starts). The innings he does provide should be quality, as the model ranks him in the top five in all categories.

Sonny Gray's 3.50 ERA is right in line with his historical mark, and his 1.08 WHIP has benefited from a 4% walk rate that would be a career low (he posted a 5 BB% last year, his first in STL). Gray's 3.01 xERA is bolstered by a lights-out 22 K-BB%, and his expected metrics are even better over the past month (2.39 xERA, 27 K-BB%). While Arizona has been tough against RHP this season (119 wRC+, .206 ISO), they were much closer to league average in the couple of weeks leading up to the break (105 wRC+). The DBacks are tough at Chase Field (.783 home OPS), but the model likes Gray's chances in this one; he ranks as the day's second-best overall option.

Clay Holmes has delivered a mixed bag of results this season, and the model projects a similar story for today's outing. He's predicted for two top-five category projections (ERA, W), while the other results (K, WHIP) are firmly mid-pack. While the 3.31 ERA looks good on the surface, the 3.86 xERA and 9 K-BB% leave much to be desired. When you factor in a big chunk of his rating today is from being the day's top win chance, take note that he hasn't cleared 5.1 IP since June 7. 

Logan Allen has likely only been on the radar of those in the deepest of leagues, but he has been trending up (ever so slightly) over the past month (PQS 1-1-2-3-3). His expected metrics support this uptick as well; his 3.81 xERA and 12 K-BB% in the last 31 days are better than his season marks. He'll take on Oakland today; they have scuffled a bit vs LHP (94 wRC+, .147 ISO) and could support a decent strikeout total (25 K%). The model recommends him today, giving him a top-ten score in every category - so if you're feeling lucky (or desperate), cross your fingers and run him out there.

Kumar Rocker has pitched better than his surface stats would indicate; his 6.39 ERA is partly inflated from a 36% hit rate and a 60% strand rate (4.14 xERA). While his 4.19 xERA over the past month aligns with his season numbers, he's also been inconsistent (PQS 4-2-4-1-0) alongside a declining strikeout rate (17 K% past 31 vs 19 K% season). The long ball has been an issue lately (5 HR in his last three outings), which Globe Life is unlikely to help (+26% LHB HR, +16% RHB HR) - and Detroit provides some pop (.170 ISO). However, if you're willing to take the plunge, the model recommends him today with top-ten scores in all categories.

Emmet Sheehan has produced fantastic surface stats (2.02 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) in his 13.1 IP so far. However, there are a few notes of concern: namely, a 4.21 xERA and a 16 K-BB% under the hood. The elite 14.5 SwK% and 24 K% should provide opportunities to rack up some Ks today, but don't expect a high total as the Brewers are in the bottom ten in K% vs RHP (21%). Sheehan's main issue is the usage, as it is with most Dodgers' pitchers. He's averaged just 67 pitches in three outings, making a win hard to come by when he's not in a bulk-follower role.

Adrian Houser isn't on our radar today because of his glimmering 1.56 ERA (4.01 xERA, 9 K-BB%)—it's all because of the matchup. Houser takes on a Pittsburgh squad featuring a paltry 81 wRC+, .109 ISO vs RHP this season. They've somehow bested (?) this production by posting an unfathomable 45 wRC+ over the two weeks heading into the break, so “toothless” may even be an overestimation. If you're considering starting Houser, you could do worse.

Dean Kremer has delivered some gems in the past month, posting a PQS line of 2-4-5-0-5 over that span. While his 4.34 xERA and 13 K-BB% are nothing to write home about, these numbers are right in line with his career marks. The Rays have been a little more susceptible lately, respective to their season 110 wRC+ vs RHP, as they've produced a subpar 83 wRC+ over the last 14 days going into the break - and Kremer also faced Tampa twice over his last five outings as well (including a PQS-5 on June 29). Consider this a “break glass in case of emergency” situation, instead of a recommendation.

 

Quick Pitches:

• Zack Littell rates as a top-five option on the slate, as he gets a Baltimore team that has struggled away from home (.659 road OPS). Littell projects for strong ratios and a good shot at a win today.
• Freddy Peralta takes on a Dodgers squad that was slumping going into the break (74 wRC+ last 14 days). Peralta rates as a top-five option today, projected for strong strikeout totals and ratios.
• Shota Imanaga takes a potent Red Sox lineup (116 wRC+ vs LHP) but has been more mid-pack away from Fenway (.716 road OPS). Imanaga's 2.65 ERA has benefited from a 23 H% and 82 S% (4.66 xERA).
• Yu Darvish has had a rough time in two outings since he made his season debut on July 7, giving up 6 ER in 8.1 innings. He takes on a Nationals squad that is hard to strike out; they rank in the bottom five in strikeout percentage.  
• Ryne Nelson could be an under-the-radar option, especially in leagues that don't count wins. He should produce modest strikeout totals and protect your ratios.
• Brayan Bello has impressive results over the past month (PQS 4-4-2-4-5), despite middling metrics below the surface (14 K-BB%, 9.1 SwK%). He takes on a thumping Cubs offense today (119 wRC+, .193 ISO).

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