(*) DAILY MATCHUPS: Tylor Megill looks to dominate the Marlins

Today's Overview/Schedule/Weather: We have 14 games on tap, eight early games, and six evening games. There are a lot of interesting weather situations throughout the Midwest and east coast, but the only real threat of rain at this point is in Atlanta. Today we have a few solid pitchers but a lot of question marks and Coors Field in play, which should lead to a lot of offense today. 

 

Notable Starts:

Tylor Megill started the season with a gem against the Marlins, where he threw five innings, allowing two runs while striking out seven. He limited the contact to 65.8% and had a dominating 14% SwStr. Megill faces those Marlins again today and should dominate as long as he can limit the walks. According to the matchup ratings, Megill should rack up strikeouts while limiting his ratios nicely.

Brandon Woodruff looked great in his first start of the season, throwing six innings in Wrigley field while allowing one run on three hits while striking out eight. Woodruff had a ridiculous 31.8% K-BB% with a 37.5% O-Swing and 17.5% SwStr. Woodruff was utterly in control of the Cubs, and he’ll look to carry some of that success over today versus the Cardinals. The Cardinals are swinging decent bats to start the season, but Woodruff will look to establish his dominance on his way to at least one strikeout per inning. 

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Zack Wheeler struggled mightily in his first start of the season in Texas. Wheeler only lasted 4.1 innings while giving up four earned runs, but he did strike out seven. Wheeler did have an excellent 27.3% K-BB and 15.8% SwStr. Wheeler also had an xFIP of 1.80, so he may have been a bit unlucky. He faces the Reds today in a game that should lead to many strikeouts. If Wheeler can get luck back on his side, he could rack up a great start on a day the Phillies get their NL Champion rings. 

Clayton Kershaw was dominant in his first start of the season versus the Diamondbacks. He threw six innings while allowing one run with nine strikeouts. He faces the DBacks again today, and according to the HQ matchup ratings are in favor of a great start. He has a 2.4 overall rating, excellent ratio ratings, and a 2.3 win rating which could lead to a tremendous fantasy outing. 

Aaron Civale finished 2022 throwing great and carried that into 2023 with seven shutout innings with three strikeouts versus the Mariners. Unfortunately, the swing and miss were not there in his first start, but he will look to improve on that as he faces the Mariners again today. The HQ matchup ratings only have Civale with a 0.7 strikeout rating, so they are skeptical too, but I am holding out hope for another quality start and a few more strikeouts. 

 

Quick Pitches:

• In his season debut, Zack Eflin threw five strong innings with five strikeouts versus the Tigers. He has one of the best matchups in baseball versus the A’s today and should cruise to a second great start to the season. 

• Marcus Stroman threw six shutout innings in his debut versus the Brewers but really surprised all with eight strikeouts. He faces a Rangers team today with some offensive prowess and a lot of swing and miss, which could lead to another good start. 

• Hunter Greene struggled in his first start as he lasted only 3.1 innings, allowing eight base runners and three runs while striking out eight. He heads into Philadelphia tonight to face a team with a lot of power but a team that has struggled early this season. 

• Alex Cobb threw only 3.2 innings in his season debut as he returned from injury. However, he did manage to strike out six while allowing one run and has a great matchup versus the Royals today, as he should be stretched out to five or six innings. 

• Lucas Giolito was solid in his debut against the Astros, as he allowed two runs over five innings and struck out six. He gets a great matchup versus the Pirates and should be in line for his first win of the season. 

• Patrick Sandoval only allowed one run over five innings in his season debut versus the A’s. However, he only struck out two, so he looks to strike out more and throws a quality start versus a formidable Jays lineup today. 

• In his season debut, Logan Gilbert was outstanding versus the Guardians, as he allowed one run and struck out seven over six innings. He will look to dominate Cleveland once again today. 

Beginning-of-season note on our matchup tool: These scores do not use prior-year data. Rather, this algorithm relies on projected data for now and will incorporate in-season data immediately. There is one limitation with using projected data: the strikeout sub-component runs too low. That will wash out quickly as each SP makes their 2nd and 3rd start of the season. It may not even prove to be inaccurate, since SP tend to not pitch as deep into games early in the year, and typically don’t get to peak velocity in their first few starts. But if you notice that the Strikeout sub-score is running negative for most pitchers, this will correct soon.

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