DAILY MATCHUPS: Gausman scores well vs. Astros on Sunday

Quickstart Guide on the above table:

• “Rating” is the overall score for today’s starting pitchers matchup. K / ERA / WHIP / Wins are the individual components that go into the composite “Rating”. 
• Each of those five columns are sortable and set roughly to a 3.0 (positive) to -3.0 (negative) scale.
• Best Starts scores are 0.5 and above, and display in green type
• Judgement Call scores run from 0.4 to -0.4 and display in black type
• Weak Starts scores are -0.5 and below, and display in red type
• Player name links to go to an individual pitcher’s PlayerLink page for YTD stats, metrics and deeper analysis
• This DAILY MATCHUPS page will be live on the site each day around 9am ET. 
   

Other links/details: 

• A how-to-use article—which includes additional information on our 2022 format update—can be found here. 
• The full explanation behind the rating system (with all the nitty-gritty math) can be found in this 2017 Research article by Arik Florimonte. 
• You can always access scores for future games at our PITCHER MATCHUPS TOOL page (from Teams/Today’s SP on the top menu). There, you can filter the list by starting pitchers by today, tomorrow, or over the next eight days, as well as by AL-only and NL-only groups. In addition this is where all charts are available in a downloadable, spreadsheet-friendly format for further analysis.
• For additional DFS coverage collected in one place, see our Daily Dashboard page. Also reference our three-year ballpark factors, team indicator pages, and SP Buyers Guide columns to help you optimize your SP utilization.
   

Today's Overview/Schedule/Weather: A typical Sunday schedule as the calendar flips to May: 14 afternoon games, plus PHI@NYM as the Sunday Night affair. Weather doesn't look like a concern in terms of postponement, but there are some potentially impactful wind conditions across the Midwest and in the Bay area that may be worth monitoring.

Notable Starts:

Alex Cobb returns from a minimum-length IL stint that basically amounted to one missed start. Before that groin strain, he had looked dominant in his first two starts as a Giant: 2 BB/14 K in 9.1 IP, 25/40 first pitch strikes, 21 swinging strikes, and a 2MPH velocity bump from last year. Durability and length may be ongoing issues, but when healthy he looks poised for a nice year. He faces the Nats today, a below-average offense.

Corbin Burnes is pitching for the Brewers today, but so far in 2022 Kevin Gausman is the new Corbin Burnes: last year, Burnes set a record by striking out 52 batters before issuing his first walk of the season. Gausman's similar streak this year stands at 31 through 4 starts. Gausman looks to extend his intolerance of free passes as he faces the Astros in Toronto this afternoon.

Four starts into his season, things still look fairly positive for Luis Severino as he continues his return from Tommy John surgery. His key indicators are mostly in line with his 2018-19 peak. His strikeout rate remains off from those prior levels, but SwK% and velocity both point to strikeout gains ahead. Facing the light-hitting Royals today is an opportunity for him to snap off a dominant start and announce his return to prominence.

Sandy Alcantara was a somewhat-divisive early-round SP this draft season, and his April work has provided fodder for both supporters and detractors. On the plus side, his 1.78 ERA sparkles, and his 97.5 MPH velocity holds the gains from last year's second half spike. He even has two Wins in four starts, which is a nice gain from 9 W in 33 GS a year ago. For the nay-sayers, his 10% BB and 20% K rate are both well off from a year ago (although a 5 BB/4 K first start in SF is skewing those numbers), and his 12.4% SwK is well off from the 14.9% level in last year's second half. Today he draws the Mariners in Miami.

Chris Paddack got a full-throated endorsement from Stephen Nickrand in yesterday's SP Buyers Guide, and faces the Rays in Tampa today. His 0.6 rating is substantially dragged down by a -1.5 Win rating; his ratio ratings for the day are both over 1.0. Start with confidence, as there's no point in sweating Win probabilities in April... errr, May.

Daniel Lynch also got the thumbs-up in that Nickrand column yesterday, and it's not hard to see why: he got hit hard in his first start @STL, but has come back with two 0-ER outings since. Even in that first pounding, he hung 7 K vs. 1 BB in 5 IP. On the year, 16 K vs. 4 BB in 16 IP is very promising. A flyball tilt suggests there will be some more days like that first one against the Cards, and the Yankees are a scary opponent today for that particular bugaboo. Lynch's score places him in the judgment call today, but his recent form and HR-reducing home park are enough to give him a tentative thumbs-up.

Marcus Stroman hasn't really found his form in Chicago yet: his last start (6 IP, 2 ER, 0 BB/3 K) might have been his best of the year, given it was in Atlanta against the defending champs. But even while effective, his 5 GB/5 LD/11 FB spread in that game was very uncharacteristic. He faces the Brewers today, a rematch of his first start (a PQS-1, even though he allowed 1 ER in 5 IP). It seems prudent to fade Stroman, at least until he starts looking like his old self. More ground balls would be a welcome sign in that regard.

Quick Pitches

• Josh Fleming appears to be making an actual start, rather than working behind an opener. That may because he got hit hard in bulk relief appearances in his last two outings. He's thrown 60+ pitches in three straight appearances, so he's capable of reaching 5 IP today... if he finds the effectiveness that has largely eluded him so far this year.
• James Kaprielian makes his first start of the year, coming off an IL stint for shoulder soreness. Expect an abbreviated outing as the Athletics ease him back into their rotation.
• Jordan Hicks left his last start early after taking a comebacker off his wrist. He avoided any serious damage, but as a result of that early shower, he still hasn't thrown more than 46 pitches in an outing this year. Best case today would seem to be 60 pitches and 3-4 good innings.

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