Nervous fantasy owners actually considered trading Albert Pujols in early May. After a sluggish start, Pujols appears to be on track; however, the experience provides a valuable case study in quantifying probability and knowing when to trade players. Using these tools shows head-to-head owners not only how to adapt to change, but also make precise decisions regarding specific players.
Playing the odds
Through 72 games, Albert Pujols is currently pacing 25 home runs. Since Pujols has never hit less than 32 home runs at the major league level, and his career high for home runs in a single season is 49, is there a simple way to calculate the probability that he will hit 30 home runs or more in 2012?
Step 1: Determine the realistic...
Almost!
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