Identifying Consistent SP Targets for 2025

Introduction

In 2020, we developed an Aggregate Consistency Score (ACS) that ranked starting pitchers on a scale of 20-100, with 100 being the best (i.e., most consistent) rating that a pitcher could receive. ACS factors in PQS-DOMinant starts, PQS-DISasters, Quality-Consistency Scores and health. Using the last 2 years of data, this article evaluates which starting pitchers have been most consistent. Taking this information, we can then draw up a game plan for how to create your own lists for draft day targets.

Calculating ACS

ACS assigns each pitcher 1-5 points for each of the following 4 factors: (1) PQS-DOMinant (DOM%) starts; (2) PQS-DISasters (DIS%); (3) Quality-Consistency Scores (QC Scores) and (4) health, which considers a pitcher's IL days for the past 3 years. The point assignments are based on a pitcher's ranking relative to his peers as set forth below:

DOM%	DIS%	QC Score	IL-Last 3 Years
Top 20% = 5 points	Lowest 20% = 5 points	Top 20% = 5 points	Top 20% = 5 points
2nd 20% = 4 points	2nd lowest = 4 points	2nd 20% = 4 points	2nd 20% = 4 points
3rd 20% = 3 points	3rd lowest = 3 points	3rd 20% = 3 points	3rd 20% = 3 points
4th 20% = 2 points	4th lowest = 2 points	4th 20% = 2 points	4th 20% = 2 points
5th 20% = 1 point	5th lowest = 1 point	5th 20% = 1 point	5th 20% = 1 point

For the IL days, the "Top 20%" refers to those pitchers with the fewest number of IL days across the past 3 years. 

Each pitcher's base score, ranging from 4-20 is then multiplied by a factor of 5 to get the resulting 20-100 ACS scale. For this article, we first averaged each pitcher's 2023 and 2024 DOM%s, DIS%s and QC Scores before assigning their percentiles. If a pitcher did not pitch in one of those two years, then only one year's worth of data was used.

The ACS factors are each used for a different reason. PQS-DOM percentages show us which pitchers are most dominant (i.e. successful in obtaining a Pure Quality Start score of 4 or 5) on a start-to-start basis. PQS-DIS percentages help us minimize volatility (i.e. avoiding PQS scores of 0 or 1) in the ERA and WHIP categories. QC Scores incorporate both PQS-DOM percentages and PQS-DIS percentages to provide a week-to-week measurement of a pitcher's consistency. Health reflects a pitcher's ability to consistently take the mound every fifth day. The single ACS number provides a snapshot measurement of all these consistency factors.

Top 50 Consistent SPs and their Current NFBC ADPs

A special thanks to Ryan Bloomfield, who choreographed the production of the Excel spreadsheet from which this list is derived. Below are the most consistent SPs over the past 2 years based on the factors mentioned above.

Name	ACS	ADP
Gilbert, Logan	100	29
Imanaga, Shota	100	74
Schwellenbach, Spencer	100	101
Skenes, Paul	100	11
Burnes, Corbin	95	35
Gausman, Kevin	95	153
Kirby, George	95	38
Lopez, Pablo	95	64
Pfaadt, Brandon	95	178
Ragans, Cole	95	46
Blanco, Ronel	90	228
Cole, Gerrit	90	61
Keller, Mitch	90	317
Lopez, Reynaldo	90	149
Wheeler, Zack	90	21
Woo, Bryan	90	133
Flaherty, Jack	85	123
Francis, Bowden	85	207
Fried, Max	85	101
Gray, Sonny	85	118
Nola, Aaron	85	83
Steele, Justin	85	129
Valdez, Framber	85	66
Berrios, Jose	80	224
Castillo, Luis	80	77
Cease, Dylan	80	46
Crochet, Garrett	80	40
Glasnow, Tyler	80	105
Miller, Bobby	80	423
Ortiz, Luis L.	80	580
Ryan, Joe	80	103
Skubal, Tarik	80	14
Webb, Logan	80	97
Bibee, Tanner	75	94
Gallen, Zac	75	116
King, Michael	75	67
Lugo, Seth	75	170
Pallante, Andre	75	621
Rodon, Carlos	75	127
Rodriguez, Eduardo	75	541
Sale, Chris	75	38
Senga, Kodai	75	143
Soriano, Jose	75	502
Wacha, Michael	75	261
Waldron, Matt	75	676
Arrighetti, Spencer	70	216
Bassitt, Chris	70	503
Cortes, Nestor	70	395
Crawford, Kutter	70	255
Kikuchi, Yusei	70	144

How to Use the List

In generating your own draft rankings, this list is not only useful in identifying values, but also in avoiding early round pitfalls that might doom your team. Three of the four ACS components are skills or performance based, while only one factor considers injury risk. Let's first take a look at the injury risk in the context of ADPs.

Avoiding or at Least Mitigating Injury Risk

There a number of pitchers whose skills and starting performances are so good, that they can bury the 20 points generated by their injury risk. For instance, while Garrett Crochet (LHP, BOS) checks in with an 80 ACS and a #40 overall draft pick cost, he's spent 329 days on the IL from 2022-2024; and that includes zero days on the IL in 2024. That IL Day number is the second highest among MLB starting pitchers across those three years. Your draft capital is better considered elsewhere at this point.

Chris Sale (LHP, ATL) is another pitcher who is being drafted at the end of round 3/start of round 4 solely based on his 2024 performance.  This is a pitcher who is on the older side with chronic elbow and shoulder issues. The risks of getting a year like 2018-2023 versus 2024 are too great to ignore.

Even in the 9th round, Tyler Glasnow (RHP, LA) is a pass. He has accumulated over 301 IL days over the course of the past 3 years. As the Baseball Forecaster notes, Glasnow has not thrown 140 innings in any year across his 9-year career. He was shut down with elbow tendinitis at the end of last year. He is another pitcher who despite his baseball skills, lacks the health skills to feel confident pulling the trigger on him.

Avoiding PQS-DIS% Starts

Let's take an isolated look at pitchers who have the highest ACS with PQS-DIS%s of 20% or higher (note: I'm including PQS-DIS% of 19% due to a few prominent names). Pitchers who have DIS%s of 20% or higher are likely to have a very bad outing (PQS 0 or PQS 1) at least once every 3 weeks. In H2H category leagues, this may result in a loss in pitching ratio categories these weeks. Therefore, it is critical to minimize rostering too many of these pitchers. Many of the pitchers below may appear to be mid-round values or targets but be sure to do a deep dive and look at all 4 of their ACS components to see if there is something fluky going on.

Name	ACS	ADP	DIS%
Burnes, Corbin	95	35	23%
Gausman, Kevin	95	153	19%
Flaherty, Jack	85	123	25%
Francis, Bowden	85	207	22%
Berrios, Jose	80	224	33%
Castillo, Luis	80	77	25%
Cease, Dylan	80	46	23%
Crochet, Garrett	80	40	22%
Glasnow, Tyler	80	105	19%
Bibee, Tanner	75	94	27%
Gallen, Zac	75	116	25%
King, Michael	75	67	23%
Lugo, Seth	75	170	23%
Pallante, Andre	75	621	21%
Rodon, Carlos	75	127	20%
Rodriguez, Eduardo	75	541	20%
Sale, Chris	75	38	19%
Arrighetti, Spencer	70	216	33%
Bassitt, Chris	70	503	32%
Cortes, Nestor	70	395	29%
Crawford, Kutter	70	255	27%
Kikuchi, Yusei	70	144	27%

This list highlights pitchers that are volatile on a start-to-start basis. Obviously, Corbin Burnes (RHP, ARI) jumps off the page given his ADP and freshly minted $210 million contract. If you look at his PQS numbers from August through September 2024, you get a sense of his volatility:

Start Date	PQS Score
8/4/24	1
8/10/24	5
8/16/24	1
8/22/24	1
8/28/24	1
9/2/24	2
9/8/24	1
9/14/24	5
9/20/24	4
9/26/24	3

Half of Burnes' starts during critical fantasy months resulted in PQS-1s in 2024. With a 3rd round ADP, his volatility suggests avoiding him at the price. This year's Forecaster even questions if Burnes is still an ace ("Is he still one?").

There are some other prominent pitchers who were also surprisingly volatile, such as Luis Castillo (RHP, SEA) and Zac Gallen (RHP, ARI), both of whom had PQS-DISs% of 25%. Jack Flaherty (RHP, FA)—albeit while having an incredible comeback season in 2024—nonetheless was a landmine in one out of every 4 starts. Similarly, Dylan Cease (RHP, SD), who is being drafted in the early 4th round this year, was a PQS-Disaster in nearly a quarter of his starts (23%). These pitchers are not “avoids” if their draft stock falls, but if their value remains at their current locations, then you are likely better off using your draft capital elsewhere.

The Pleasant Top 50 Surprises or Validations

While we have spent much of this article explaining how to use ACS to avoid pitchers that might harm our teams, there are also some targets that come from our Top 50 ACS leaderboard. Spencer Schwellenbach (RHP, ATL), with a perfect ACS of 100 and a 101 ADP leads the pack on the best values on this list. Brandon Pfaadt (RHP, ARI) in the 15th round with a 95 ACS is an absolute steal.  Both Schwellenbach and Pfaadt are worth grabbing a round earlier than their ADPs. Command-master Bryan Woo (RHP, SEA) rounds out the triumvirate of young SP with ACS scores over 90. Woo's season dealt with several injury bumps, but he's currently going in round 12 and was afforded an “UP: 180 Ks” in the Forecaster.

Last, we will flag 2 pitchers who are being considered at very different areas in the draft. Ronel Blanco (RHP, HOU) threw a no-hitter last year, had an ACS of 90 and is going in the 19th round. He may not repeat his ERA, but he showed many “Mark Buehrle-esque” starts, going 6+ IP after it looked like he might be cooked in the second.

Now, if you're picking towards the end of round 1, Paul Skenes' (RHP, PIT) perfect ACS of 100 certainly helps give some confidence to taking a pitcher that early. There's no value to be had - but the ACS should at least give you confidence in selecting a pitcher this high.

Conclusion

The most important takeaway from this article is that the list of pitchers with the highest ACS should not be taken at face value. Instead, it is designed to help guide you in creating your own list of targets by doing deeper dives into the consistency metrics used as well as incorporating any other metrics (i.e., K%-BB% is a favorite of this writer) or anecdotal information (i.e., pitch mix change, etc.) that you choose.

Best of luck in developing your own 2025 H2H starting pitcher targets this year!

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