STARTERS: Expected Ctl, WHIP surgers and faders
Jan 7 2016
Our 2015 research on the ball and strike rates of starting pitchers found that there is a strong correlation between a SP's ball% and the number of walks he allows. As walks go up or down, so does WHIP—so ball% also has a strong link to that category.
In fact, ball% provides the closest link to a pitcher's Ctl out of all indicators studied in that research.
We also were able to draw the following conclusions:
- SP have an average ball% of 36%
- SP with wide variances between Ctl and xCtl will overwhelmingly experience a correction in the direction of xCtl—as calculated by using ball%—during the following season
- Ball% more often regresses to a SP’s career norm than it regresses to an MLB norm
Expected control rate (xCtl) can be calculated...
Almost!
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