Home-road splits, 2023 updated

Let's take an updated look at the starting pitchers with the widest home/road splits using differences in aggregate skill level (BPV):

Name	Lg	BPV Home	BPV Road	Δ
Julio Urías	NL	178	61	117
Nick Martinez	NL	136	40	96
Shintaro Fujinami	AL	78	(15)	93
Freddy Peralta	NL	166	74	92
Reid Detmers	AL	141	51	90
Matt Strahm	NL	200	112	88
Patrick Sandoval	AL	102	15	87
Drew Smyly	NL	128	41	87
Spencer Strider	NL	228	141	87
Clayton Kershaw	NL	182	99	83
Tyler Glasnow	AL	210	130	80
Kyle Freeland	NL	86	7	79
Justin Verlander	AL	109	34	76
Ken Waldichuk	AL	84	10	74
Zac Gallen	NL	175	102	73
Michael Kopech	AL	57	(16)	73
Chris Sale	AL	197	127	71
James Paxton	AL	167	97	70
Shane McClanahan	AL	144	78	66
Luis Castillo	AL	167	103	64
Jameson Taillon	NL	111	47	64
Charlie Morton	NL	109	47	62
Luke Weaver	NL	104	46	58
Domingo Germán	AL	136	79	57
Brandon Williamson	NL	84	29	55
Tyler Wells	AL	122	69	53
Joe Ryan	AL	180	131	49
Bryce Elder	NL	90	43	48
Jakob Junis	NL	173	126	47
Edward Cabrera	NL	90	43	47
Lance Lynn	NL	148	104	44
Noah Syndergaard	AL	90	47	43
Blake Snell	NL	112	70	42
George Kirby	AL	166	124	41
Marcus Stroman	NL	100	59	40
Zach Eflin	AL	173	134	39
Framber Valdez	AL	151	112	39
Tony Gonsolin	NL	75	36	39
José Berríos	AL	125	87	39
Roansy Contreras	NL	53	15	38
Patrick Corbin	NL	71	34	37
Martín Pérez	AL	52	15	37
Miles Mikolas	NL	101	64	37
Chris Bassitt	AL	111	74	37
Yu Darvish	NL	124	89	35
Alex Wood	NL	60	27	33
Luis Severino	AL	75	42	33
Lucas Giolito	AL	118	86	32
Mike Clevinger	AL	71	39	32
Sonny Gray	AL	125	95	31
Taj Bradley	AL	160	130	30
Cristian Javier	AL	88	57	30
Tanner Houck	AL	84	114	(30)
Adrian Houser	NL	65	97	(32)
Zack Greinke	AL	79	113	(34)
David Peterson	NL	72	107	(35)
Kyle Bradish	AL	89	125	(36)
Corbin Burnes	NL	76	113	(37)
Ross Stripling	NL	94	132	(38)
Connor Seabold	NL	35	73	(38)
Logan Allen	AL	66	105	(39)
Anthony DeSclafani	NL	82	122	(39)
Dean Kremer	AL	65	109	(44)
Hunter Brown	AL	105	153	(48)
Bryce Miller	AL	92	144	(52)
Kutter Crawford	AL	84	138	(54)
Nick Pivetta	AL	92	148	(56)
Josiah Gray	NL	6	68	(62)
Hayden Wesneski	NL	49	115	(66)
Bailey Ober	AL	97	165	(67)
Ryne Nelson	NL	7	83	(77)
Dylan Cease	AL	58	140	(82)
Grayson Rodriguez	AL	44	152	(108)
Alek Manoah	AL	(66)	52	(118)
Matthew Boyd	AL	23	166	(143)

Let's take a closer look at some noteworthy home/road BPV splits that you can use to maximize the value from your starting rotation down the stretch, as well as use to identify emerging arms heading into 2024.
 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Dylan Cease (RHP, CHW) owns a mediocre 4.98 ERA in 59 IP on the road in 2023, a mark that has been inflated by a 37% H% and 64% S%. In spite of those surface struggles, his base skills away from home have been excellent: 30% K%, 9% BB%, 21% K-BB%, 45% GB%, 140 BPV. Even though he has a decent 3.79 ERA at home, Cease's skills (58 BPV) suggest there's a correction coming there.

Reid Detmers (LHP, LAA) has been one of the game's better starters when he pitches at home: 32% K%, 9% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 33% GB%, 141 BPV. He's another pitcher who has been victimized by some hit rate misfortune (36% H% at home). On the road, his hit rate normalizes (29% H%) but his skills tank (51 BPV). He's worth using during his home starts down the stretch.

Grayson Rodriguez (RHP, BAL) is flashing his upside away from Camden Yards. His road skills have been some of the best in the game among starters with 30+ IP in that scenario: 30% K%, 7% BB%, 23% K-BB%, 49% GB%, 152 BPV. His surface stats implode during his home starts (6.69 ERA, 1.79 WHIP) due in large part to shaky skills (44 BPV).

Chris Sale (LHP, BOS) has looked like his former ace-like self when he pitches in Fenway Park. He has a 3.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP there, stats that have been fueled by this elite collection of skills: 34% K%, 5% BB%, 30% K-BB%, 40% GB%, 197 BPV. His surface struggles have come on the road (5.34 ERA in 32 IP), where his skills go from great to good (127 BPV).

Patrick Sandoval (LHP, LAA) has been a volatile starter so far in 2023, due in large part to inconsistent control. He has an ugly 15% BB% in 58 IP on the road, a weakness that is fueling his ugly 15 BPV away from home. If you're rostering him, the place to use him is at home, where he throws the ball over the plate (6% BB% in 54 IP).
 

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Nick Martinez (RHP, SD) owns some of the widest home/road splits in the game. He's a must-start at home (2.52 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 50 IP) behind an upper-tier 136 BPV. His problems are relegated to his road appearances (5.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP in 36 IP), where he loses 14 points of K-BB% and doesn't own roster-worthy skills (40 BPV).

Freddy Peralta (RHP, MIL) has looked like a rotation anchor at Miller Park, where he has put up a 3.79 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 166 BPV in 71 IP. His results erode away from home (4.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 56 IP), where inconsistent command has deteriorated his skills (74 BPV).

Matt Strahm (LHP, PHI) has been filthy during his home starts. He has a 32% K-BB% in 34 IP at home, an elite level of command that has given him a 200 BPV at home. His skills become more solid than speculator on the road (112 BPV), as do his surface stats (3.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP in 38 IP).

Jameson Taillon (RHP, CHC) could provide some positive regression if you use him during his home starts down the stretch. His horrible 6.17 ERA and 1.61 WHIP at Wrigley Field has been the direct result of a 39% H%. His good 111 BPV at home suggests his numbers should be much better there. Just be careful using him at all on the road (47 BPV in 50 IP).

Julio Urías (LHP, LA) has been one of the game's best starters during his home starts. He has a 2.43 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in 55 IP at home, marks that have been driven by an elite foundation of skills: 29% K%, 3% BB%, 27% K-BB%, 46% GB%, 178 BPV. He really struggles on the road (6.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP in 43 IP), where his command wanes (11% K-BB%). He's a road tweak away from becoming a legit rotation anchor.

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