Gambles, 2026
Mar 7 2026
Most starting pitchers can be considered gambles in one form or another. Some are gambles worth taking. Others should be avoided.
Here, we will discuss gambles to avoid and define them as SP who are likely to be significantly overvalued on draft day.
This doesn't mean you should avoid targeting all of the guys listed here, but it does mean that you should think twice before bidding full value on them. Last year, we advised you to be cautious of Bowden Francis (RHP, TOR), José Berríos (RHP, TOR), Seth Lugo (RHP, KC), Luis L. Ortiz (RHP, CLE), and Erick Fedde (RHP, CHW), all of whom took steps backwards in 2025.
These starting pitchers had an expected ERA that was significantly worse than their actual ERA in 2025 (min 40 IP):
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