Gambles, 2026
Mar 7 2026
Most starting pitchers can be considered gambles in one form or another. Some are gambles worth taking. Others should be avoided.
Here, we will discuss gambles to avoid and define them as SP who are likely to be significantly overvalued on draft day.
This doesn't mean you should avoid targeting all of the guys listed here, but it does mean that you should think twice before bidding full value on them. Last year, we advised you to be cautious of Bowden Francis (RHP, TOR), José Berríos (RHP, TOR), Seth Lugo (RHP, KC), Luis L. Ortiz (RHP, CLE), and Erick Fedde (RHP, CHW), all of whom took steps backwards in 2025.
These starting pitchers had an expected ERA that was significantly worse than their actual ERA in 2025 (min 40 IP):
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Almost! You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here! Already a subscriber? Sign in here More From Starting PitchersBen Brown gets dialed in with runners on base. Finding a similar approach with the bases empty will help him take a sustained step forward.
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The ups-and-downs of Jesús Luzardo can be traced to some really ugly results when he pitches at home, largely due to some bad luck during those starts.
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Chase Dollander's filthy skills against same-sided bats reinforce his upper-rotation ceiling.
Jun 6 2026 3:10am
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Cristopher Sanchez's scoreless streak continues, and it has been backed by top-tier skills and similarly elite skill drivers.
May 30 2026 3:05am
May 30 2026 3:05am
Jacob Misiorowski's skills have become firmly elite so far in 2026.
May 23 2026 3:05am
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