(*) RELIEVERS: More pen usage issues

This column continues to look at roles, as it is too early to use skills to pass judgment. As a refresher, Leverage Index (LI) was developed by Tom Tango and measures the amount of swing in the possible change in win probability indexed against an average value of 1.00. Relievers who come into games in various situations create a composite score around 1.00, when aggregated. Because the average score for relievers is 1.00, relievers with higher LI scores (above 1.00) have managers who show greater confidence in them to win games than relievers with a lower LI score.

LI patterns inform us about what roles relievers have, and what changes we might expect when a reliever gets hurt or traded. It also allows us to see role changes over time, as one reliever has greater effect than another and their LIs move relative to one another. This takes on primary importance when looking at relievers who may not be getting save chances today, but who may get save chances if/when a closer loses the role (for whatever reason). There are not a lot of appearances for most relievers yet so these numbers remain volatile. But unlike the data with skill sets, we have enough data to run through a few pens and make some observations about usage.

This week, we start in Cleveland. Closer Cody Allen (RHP, CLE) has been under siege due to his poor performance in his first six innings. Here is how the Indians are using their relievers:

CLE             Sv Hld  IP  xERA Clean/App Inh  LI
============    == === ==== ==== ========= === ==== 
Rzepczynski (L)  0  3   4.0 0.00     6/8    6  2.07
Shaw             0  4   5.0 5.01     6/9    9  1.55
Allen            3  0   6.0 5.67     4/7    0  0.95
Hagedone (L)     0  2   7.0 3.11     6/8    4  0.68
Atchison         0  2   7.7 2.88     6/8    7  0.63

As with last week, Clean/Appearance is exactly how it sounds—a success rate. Appearances are the number of outings for a given reliever. Clean appearances are the number of outings where no runners (earned, unearned or inherited) scored. Obviously a reliever will have a harder time earning a "clean" appearance with inherited runners in scoring position and no outs, so the overall inherited runners are provided as context (Inh). Closers more often than not do not inherit runners, as managers like to give then a clean ninth inning and a lead to start their outing.

The disturbing piece of news for Allen owners (and Indians fans) is that Allen has managed only four clean appearances in seven outings despite inheriting no runners. This is largely due to a bloated walk rate—something that was never an issue in 2014. If that continues, he won't be the closer for long, even with his long leash earned by his brilliant skills last year. Allen has the benefit of set-up man Bryan Shaw (RHP, CLE) not faring a lot better from a skills standpoint, although Shaw has six clean appearances out of nine with nine inherited. If Shaw can get his skills in order quickly and Allen cannot, it would just be a matter of how patient Terry Francona can be. Given the stark difference in LI to date, Allen may be dealing with something mechanically and the Indians are trying to get him through it. Watch LI and also Allen's walk rate—over the next two weeks, those two categories will suggest how it is going to go.

This column reviewed the Dodgers last week. But since then, Plan B, Joel Peralta (RHP, LA) has joined closer Kenley Jansen (RHP, LA) on the shelf:

LA              Sv Hld  IP  xERA Clean/App Inh  LI
============    == === ==== ==== ========= === ==== 
Y.Garcia         1  1   9.7 2.33     8/9    2  1.22
P.Baez           0  4   7.7 3.16     5/8    2  1.19
C.Hatcher        1  3   6.3 1.52     5/9    5  1.12

We have excluded lefties J.P. Howell (LHP, LA) and Paco Rodríguez (LHP, LA) both of whom top the Dodgers LI list (see last week's column). Both are being used for matchups and holds, and are not being considered for saves except in the rare circumstance where a favorable L/L matchup is also the last out, and the relievers are out of sequence. Chris Hatcher (RHP, LA) got the team's first save, then had a poor second outing and has been down in the pecking order since. Yimi García (RHP, LA) emerged with a strong spring and his April has been every bit as good. Skills-wise, both Hatcher and Garcia have been strong, but Garcia is seemingly slightly more trusted; eight out of his nine appearances have been clean. Hatcher pitched after Garcia in a tight game recently, but more often than not, expect Garcia to get the saves nod and for Hatcher and Pedro Báez (RHP, LA) to set him up from the right side while the Dodgers ride out the Jansen and Peralta injuries. Garcia may have earned a large role by the time either Jansen or Peralta get back.

Colorado has lost closer LaTroy Hawkins (RHP, COL) to injury, but of course that has been a blessing in disguise. The Rockies had Adam Ottavino closing but he has now hit the disabled list.  Plan C John Axford (RHP, COL) has also had two saves and even venerable Rafael Betancourt (RHP, COL) jumped in for a save:

COL             Sv Hld  IP  xERA Clean/App Inh  LI
============    == === ==== ==== ========= === ==== 
Axford           2  0   4.0 0.00     4/4    0  1.36
Ottavino (DL)    3  3  10.3 1.77    10/10   0  1.05
Betancourt       1  3   8.7 3.13     7/9    2  0.72

Axford has only pitched four innings so far after having to miss games when his son was bitten by a rattlesnake. He is a perfect four-for-four in those games and his LI is the highest. Ottavino looked pretty safe with a 1.77 xERA combined with ten-for-ten in clean appearances, but the injury is a big blow. Expect Axford to be the closer moving forward. Roster him if you must. But his shaky past, bouts with gopheritis and half his home games in Coors Field makes Betancourt a suddenly attractive Plan D and he would not be a terrible handcuff at this point.

Toronto has used Miguel Castro (RHP, TOR) as its rookie closer the first few weeks with lefties Brett Cecil (LHP, TOR) and Aaron Loup (LHP, TOR) in set-up along with rookie Roberto Osuna (RHP, TOR) from the right side. But Tuesday, John Gibbons stated that had he needed a closer on Monday, it would have been Cecil, and it is Cecil going forward:

TOR             Sv Hld  IP  xERA Clean/App Inh  LI
============    == === ==== ==== ========= === ==== 
Cecil (L)        0  3   5.0 3.32     5/8    6  1.63
Castro           4  1   9.7 4.67     6/10   8  1.37
Osuna            0  4  10.3 3.19     6/8    8  1.36
Loup (L)         0  0   8.0 2.90     5/8    2  0.69

Look at these high leverage indexes for Cecil, Castro and Osuna. Cecil and Osuna have been solid even with inherited runners, Castro on the other hand is six of ten clean appearances, but unlike most closers, he too has had eight inherited runners. Castro has not measured up to the others with his skills to date—‚certainly not to the level he displayed during spring training. So Castro is out of the closer role after four saves to his credit. Cecil is back in, but owners will need to remain vigilant for John Gibbons to rearrange the deck chairs again should Cecil stumble—especially with current starter Aaron Sanchez (RHP, TOR) being discussed as a potential option.

Much is currently being made of Pirates closer Mark Melancon's (RHP, PIT) sizeable drop in velocity, which is affecting his skill set. This may be doubly concerning given the Pirates array of excellent relievers behind Melancon:

PIT             Sv Hld  IP  xERA Clean/App Inh  LI
============    == === ==== ==== ========= === ==== 
T.Watson (L)     1  4  12.0 2.89     8/11   3  1.46
J.Hughes         0  7  10.0 2.59     7/11   6  1.22
Melancon         5  0   9.3 3.93     8/10   1  1.01
Caminero         0  4   9.7 2.84     7/10   5  1.00
Bastardo (L)     0  0   3.7 3.58     3/6    2  0.68

Here, the key is that Melancon has eight-of-ten clean appearances so far in 2015. Elite set-up Tony Watson (LHP, PIT) and Jared Hughes (RHP, PIT) are doing much of the heavy lifting with inherited runners and higher LI situations. Flamethrower Arquimedes Caminero (RHP, PIT) has inserted himself into the mix as well. None of those juicy pitchers have the clean conversion rate that Melancon has. For now, expect the roles to remain as-is for the Pirates. Antonio Bastardo (LHP, PIT) could use a bit more work, and down the road he may get it. But Watson, Hughes and Caminero can be expected to set-up Melancon unless Melancon gets hurt or blows several games in a row. Watson and especially Caminero owners might consider trading them to a team speculating for saves.

Next week we will have a month in the books, which is a good time to compare actual ERA with expected ERA (xERA) and projected ERA to see where we might be able to find a bargain or a trade.

Follow @DougDennis41

 

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