Though we all know the age-old joke about how dangerous it is to “assume,” it didn’t stop the us from running this blurb on Colby Rasmus (OF, HOU) in the 2016 Baseball Forecaster:
"Safe to assume ct% of 2011-12 isn't coming back. That's a shame. If he could add better ct% to legit power and sustain growth vs. LHP, more AB could produce monster HR totals. Instead, he comes as advertised in xBA column; a sub-.250 BA is what you'll get with your 20+ HR in <500 AB.”
Fast forward about seven months from the time that was written, and through May 6 Rasmus already had compiled seven home runs and 24 RBI in less 100 AB, which puts him on pace for a much bigger power year than we expected. It must be some early-season hr/f fortune, right?
Year AB ...500>
Almost!
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