(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Gordon, Dickey, Aoki, J. Zimmermann, Byrd

Gordon’s approach unaffected by injuries…For the first time since 2010, Alex Gordon (OF, KC) didn’t top 560 AB in 2015. Injuries played a role; he dealt with wrist issues in April, and missed a chunk of July/August with a groin injury that put him on the DL. It all combined to affect Gordon’s counting stats—can he recover those numbers?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%   G/L/F    HR  PX   xPX  hr/f  SB  Spd  SBO
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ========  ==  ===  ===  ====  ==  ===  ===
2011  611  .303  .276   10   77  40/22/38  23  144  117   13%  17   86  14% 
2012  642  .294  .272   10   78  42/25/33  14  116  102    8%  10   87   8%  
2013  633  .265  .247    8   78  40/20/39  20  104  125   10%  11  123   8%
2014  563  .266  .260   10   78  43/19/38  19  123  118   11%  12   72   9%
2015  354  .271  .251   12   74  38/25/38  13  112  126   13%   2   78   6%

The injuries didn’t seem to changes Gordon’s approach:

• He still takes plenty of walks, but he did whiff more than usual in 2015. Still, he’s a good bet to deliver a good BA.
• Gordon’s HR total took a hit—mostly due to the lost playing time. His power remains above average, he still hits a good number of fly balls, and hr/f shows no signs of erosion.
• He’s not a speedster; below-average Spd (other than 2013) points out that he’s not much of an SB threat.  He hasn’t run much the past few years, so he’s unlikely to return to the SB level of 2011.

With a return to his usual league-average contact skills, Gordon should produce a solid BA; with exemplary plate patience, he’s a big contributor in OBA leagues. He’s also a good bet to return to the 15-20 HR level. Assuming he remains healthy, look for Gordon to return to form.

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Dickey unlikely to repeat sub-4.00 ERA…Knuckleballers live forever—at least, that’s the way it seems. R.A. Dickey (RHP, TOR), now 41, posted sub-4.00 ERAs the past two years. In the last year of his contract with the Blue Jays, can Dickey continue to produce?

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  H%  S%  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  FpK  SwK    G/L/F    hr/f  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ==  ==  ===  ===  ===  ===  ====  ========  ====  ===
2011  209  3.28  3.89  29  76  2.3  5.8  2.5  63%   8%   51/16/33    8%   70
2012  234  2.73  3.22  28  79  2.1  8.9  4.3  62%  13%   46/20/34   11%  127
2013  225  4.21  4.11  27  71  2.8  7.1  2.5  61%  10%   40/19/40   13%   69
2014  216  3.71  4.01  27  74  3.1  7.2  2.3  63%  11%   42/20/38   11%   67
2015  214  3.91  4.54  26  71  2.6  5.3  2.1  59%   9%   42/21/37   10%   46
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 1H 108  5.02  4.89  28  67  3.5  5.3  1.5  59%   9%   43/23/35   13%   22
15 2H 107  2.78  4.21  25  75  1.6  5.2  3.3  59%  10%   41/19/40    7%   70

Don’t put much credence into Dickey’s recent performance:

• xERA shows that his stellar second half in 2015 can mostly be attributed to smoke and mirrors. Fortuitous H%, S%, and hr/f certainly helped out.
• Yes, Dickey’s Ctl improved greatly in the second half, but FpK says it’s not sustainable. In fact, the full-year drop in FpK indicates puts further Ctl decay into play.
• The big drop in Dom should correct a bit, since SwK remains above league-average. But the days of high strikeout numbers are long gone.

Dickey’s advanced age and steady decline in BPV tells you what you need to know. If he’s on the waiver wire in a shallow league, continue to avoid him and explore other options.

 

Aoki should rebound from poor 2015 2H…With the Giants in 2015, Norichika Aoki (OF, SEA) cranked it in the first half, hitting for average and stealing bases. But a leg injury shelved him in June, and his performance suffered. After signing a one-year deal with the Mariners, Aoki looks to recover that first half magic.  

Year   AB   BA   xBA   bb%  ct%  h%   G/L/F    HR  PX  SB  Spd  SBO  SB%
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ==  ========  ==  ==  ==  ===  ===  ===
2012  520  .288  .294    8   89  31  55/17/28  10  91  30  131  27%  79%
2013  597  .286  .282    8   93  30  60/18/22   8  50  20  144  16%  63%
2014  491  .285  .292    8   90  32  62/21/17   1  53  17  136  16%  68%
2015  355  .287  .294    8   93  30  61/19/20   5  52  14  133  17%  74%
------------------------------------------------------------------------
15 1H 262  .317  .296    8   94  33  62/21/17   2  40  12  129  18%  71%
15 2H  93  .204  .190    7   91  20  57/14/29   3  52   2  108  11% 100%

Aoki should be able to return to form:

• His plate skills remained the same post-injury; the poor BA in his limited second half can be attributed to low H%.
• Aoki makes fantastic contact, so he’s a good bet to hit for a high BA.
• He’s also got excellent speed, and runs enough to generate value in SBs. But since he doesn’t succeed at a high rate, there’s a cap on the stolen bases.
• Aoki mostly puts the ball on the ground with low PX, so don’t count on more than a smattering of HRs.

At 34, Aoki’s got a well-established profile. While there’s no guarantee he can double the hot start he put up in 2015, he can be counted on for a high BA and 15-20 SBs.

 

Zimmermann fills a rotation need…After spending the first seven years of his career in Washington, Jordan Zimmermann (RHP, DET) came over to the AL with a five-year contract with the Tigers. With 200+ IP in each of the past three years, Zimmermann looks to take his place as a reliable innings eater in Detroit.

Year   IP   ERA  xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  H%  S%  FpK  SwK   G/L/F    hr/f  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ==  ==  ===  ===  ========  ====  ===
2011  161  3.18  3.75  1.7  6.9  4.0  30  74  63%   8%  39/19/42    6%   95
2012  196  2.94  3.78  2.0  7.0  3.6  30  78  69%   9%  43/23/33    9%   94
2013  213  3.25  3.50  1.7  6.8  4.0  28  73  67%   9%  48/21/31   10%  103
2014  200  2.66  3.22  1.3  8.2  6.3  31  77  71%  11%  40/24/36    6%  130
2015  202  3.66  3.82  1.7  7.3  4.2  31  74  67%   9%  42/22/36   11%  105

The change of venues shouldn’t significantly affect Zimmermann’s value:

• While still a favorable home venue, Comerica Park (-5% RH HR) is not as extreme a pitcher’s park as Nationals Park (-20% RH HR).
• Zimmermann has great FpK, but he couldn’t maintain 2014’s boost. Still, at this level, he’s a good bet to limit free passes.
• He also couldn’t maintain the 2014 SwK; a return to the 8+ Dom level probably isn’t in the cards.

2014 looks like the outlier for Zimmermann; don’t count on a return to sub-3.00 ERA or a boost in Dominance. Still, with AAA reliability and great control, Zimmermann looks like he’ll be a rotation stalwart for years to come.

 

Byrd in decline…Sometimes, in life, you get to reinvent yourself. For 39-year old Marlon Byrd (OF, CLE), that change came a few years ago. For most of his long career, he made plenty of contact and hit for a high BA; the last three years have been all about the power.

Year   AB   BA   xBA  bb%  ct%   h%   G/L/F    HctX  HR   PX  xPX  hr/f
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ==  ========  ====  ==  ===  ===  ====
2011  446  .276  .266    5   83  32  50/22/28    78   9   82   68    9%
2012  143  .245  .210    3   78  26  50/26/25    86   1   24   57    4%
2013  532  .291  .272    6   73  36  39/24/37   124  24  159  153   16%
2014  591  .264  .243    6   69  34  37/23/40   108  25  143  145   15%
2015  506  .247  .255    5   71  30  43/21/36    96  23  140  116   17%

The change of approach occurred at the start of the 2013 season:

• Byrd became more of a free swinger, as the drop in ct% attests. His BA suffered as a result.
• He’s now doing more when he does make contact, hitting the ball harder. More balls in the air, more power, and a higher hr/f translates to more HR.
• But Byrd took a step back in 2015. While he had high PX, he didn’t hit the ball as hard as in 2013/14. xPX shows there’s some downside in his power.

As Byrd approaches 40, expect to see a continued slowdown. With his new free-swinging ways and signs of an imminent power decline, Byrd doesn’t generate as much interest as he did a couple of years ago.

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