(*) FACTS/FLUKES: Cano, T. Walker, Beltran, S. Wright, R. Martin

Cano cruising again... What a difference a year makes; particularly if you're Robinson Canó (2B, SEA). On June 30, 2015, Cano was stuck with a .248 BA and five HR over 314 AB through the season's first half. Since that point? Try .312 with 32 home runs in roughly a full season of AB (534). Cano played through a stomach ailment during that first half of 2015, but he's looked like himself again so far in 2016. Should we consider him among the 2B elite?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB   PX  xPX  hr/f  HR  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ==  ========  ===  ===  ====  ==  ===
2012  627  .313  .324    9   85   141  33  49/26/26  145  115   24%  33   99
2013  605  .314  .312   10   86   137  33  44/26/30  128  115   17%  27   90
2014  595  .314  .301    9   89   109  34  53/23/25   95   82   11%  14   75
2015  624  .287  .285    6   83   118  32  50/24/25  100  107   16%  21   48
2016  224  .290  .313    7   86   124  28  44/17/39  154  111   21%  16  106

Absolutely—Cano's skills have been vintage this season:

• Cano's contact rate has rebounded to a more familiar level, while HctX suggests he's squaring up the ball with ease. xBA predicts Cano will flirt with .300 all year.
• Cano has seen a major boost in fly balls, and while that's likely dragged his h% to a career-low level, it's a tradeoff we can handle given his hr/f spike.
• That hr/f would be the second-highest of Cano's career, however, and with xPX just slightly above league average, we can't expect the HR pace to continue at such a rapid clip.

We've seen a slightly different version of Cano this season, as a new FB% swing—not yet seen in his career—has driven his considerable HR spike. His elite plate skills all but lock in another excellent BA, so while Cano's HR pace should slow a bit, everything else here looks legit. Cano has the goods to once again be considered among the elite 2B—and he's probably the best one taller than 5'6".

---

Take charge of your league in 2016 with a BaseballHQ.com subscription that unlocks articles like these all season long. Winning. Fantasy baseball. Insight.

---

Gauging Walker's rollercoaster season... Things looked rosy for Taijuan Walker (RHP, SEA) owners at the end of April, when he had a 1.44 ERA and 166 BPV through four starts. He's been a different pitcher since then, as Walker left his May 6 start (neck spasms) and has posted a 5.77 ERA over his last seven outings. While the injury would be a convenient explanation for Walker's recent struggles, are there other reasons for the early-season inconsistency?

Year  IP   ERA   xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  hr/f  FpK  SwK  Ball%   Vel  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  ===  =====  ====  ===
2015  169  4.56  3.78  2.1  8.3  3.9  39/22/39  30/66   13%  63%  11%  34.4%  94.3  110
2016   59  3.94  3.83  2.3  7.9  3.5  46/20/34  29/77   19%  59%   9%  35.4%  94.0  105

Walker's not quite there yet:

• Despite having a mid-90s heater, Walker hasn't been able to regularly miss bats. The culprit? His secondary pitches—neither his splitter, curve, nor cutter have produced an 11%+ swinging-strike rate (SwK) this season.
• Walker's ability to consistently throw strikes suggests his solid Ctl is here to stay, though bouts with gopheritis throughout his young career suggest he's grabbing too much of the plate.
• Despite the wild month-to-month production from Walker, xERA indicates he's more or less pitching to his skill level.

Walker, just 23, has already flashed signs that led to a 9A prospect rating with #1 starter upside in our July 2014 call-up report. A breakout doesn't appear imminent, however, until Walker can pair his electric fastball with a secondary pitch that produces whiffs. Walker remains a premium long-term stock and already has a sub-4.00 ERA floor, but owners in redraft leagues should expect some more highs and lows in 2016.

 

Beltran an oldie but goodie ... After a subpar 2014 and slow start to 2015, the easy thing to do with Carlos Beltrán (OF, NYY) was to call him washed up. But Beltran, 39, surged in the second half of 2015 (94 BPV), and he's carried that momentum into 2016 with a .269 BA and 13 HR. Can Beltran pull together another solid season before he hits 40?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB   PX  xPX  hr/f  HR  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ==  ========  ===  ===  ====  ==  ===
2012  547  .269  .274   11   77   115  29  42/20/38  142  124   20%  32   68
2013  554  .296  .282    6   84   129  32  35/24/41  122  127   13%  24   76
2014  403  .233  .258    8   80   105  26  44/16/39  120  101   12%  15   58
2015  478  .276  .275    9   82   120  30  36/22/43  125  132   11%  19   72
2016  197  .269  .283    4   79   118  28  39/18/42  155  128   19%  13   72

The skills offer a resounding "yes":

• We're seeing some early erosion in Beltran's plate skills, but xBA still suggests that Beltran can rack up hits at a decent clip.
• His hr/f has nearly doubled compared to recent seasons. At this point in Beltran's career, we can't expect that to hold, but PX and xPX still maintain there's plenty of pop in his bat.
• Beltran's BPV history is as consistent as they come, and though he's recently dealt with oblique and elbow injuries, he's managed to put up semi-consistent AB totals.

Some slippage in Beltran's plate skills and a noticeable xPX/PX gap suggest his current clip is probably a best-case scenario going forward. That's not necessarily a bad thing, as Beltran's xBA and power metrics are in great shape, so there's a low floor as long as he's in the lineup. Expect Beltran to maintain his current BA, and there's an increasingly likely shot he'll crack 30 HR. Not bad for a soon-to-be 40-year-old.

 

Wright's knuckler working wonders ... There's a knuckleballer back in Boston! In the shadows of Tim Wakefield, Steven Wright (RHP, BOS) has emerged from nowhere to put up a 2.29 ERA through his first 11 starts. Are we in line for another R.A Dickey-type breakout, or is this an early-season fluke?

Year  IP   ERA   xERA  Ctl  Dom  Cmd  GB/LD/FB  H%/S%  hr/f  FpK  SwK  Ball%  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ===  ========  =====  ====  ===  ===  =====  ===
2015   72  4.09  4.75  3.3  6.4  1.9  43/14/43  26/74   12%  55%   9%  36.3%   47
2016   75  2.29  4.02  3.7  7.7  2.1  43/21/36  25/80    4%  59%  12%  36.4%   59

We're leaning much more towards the latter:

• Wright has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune early on, as H%, S%, and hr/f are all in extremely favorable territory. Don't expect that to last all year.
• Ctl suggests Wright's having some issues controlling the knuckler, which has sent Cmd well below our threshold for breakout SP targets.
• xERA and BPV both indicate that Wright's early-season dominance will be short-lived.

Knuckleballers like Wright are a rare breed, and while many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills simply don't support this type of success going forward. Wright has benefited more from good fortune than actual skill growth, as a nearly two-run gap between ERA and xERA indicates a swift correction is coming. Owners dreaming of another R.A. Dickey circa 2012 will be disappointed the rest of the way.

 

What's behind Martin's collapse? ... Coming off a career-high 23-HR season, Russell Martin (C, TOR) was being drafted among the top catchers entering 2016. Those who chose Martin have received next to nothing in return, as he's posted a sub-Mendoza BA with just three HR in 150+ AB. Is there any hope Martin can salvage his season?

Year   AB   BA    xBA  bb%  ct%  HctX  h%  GB/LD/FB   PX  xPX  hr/f  HR  BPV
====  ===  ====  ====  ===  ===  ====  ==  ========  ===  ===  ====  ==  ===
2013  438  .226  .244   12   75   108  27  51/17/33  108  104   14%  15   32
2014  379  .290  .255   13   79   109  34  49/19/32  102   92   11%  11   50
2015  441  .240  .272   11   76    97  27  51/16/33  140  113   21%  23   66
2016  154  .195  .191    7   66    96  27  44/23/33   49  119    9%   3  -62

You'd have to look real hard to find hope:

• Martin's plate approach has gone awry, as bb% and ct% have both plummeted. A major increase in swinging strikes (13% SwK in 2016; 8% career) tells us Martin is producing plenty of whiffs.
• As a result, Martin's xBA has fallen to scary depths. His h% is on par with previous seasons, so it's clear that Martin has deserved the awful BA.
• The only silver lining we can find is that major gap between PX and xPX. Martin is still hitting the ball hard, so expect the power to be first to rebound.

There's no getting around the fact that Martin's season has been a disaster—both above and below the surface. His xBA and BPV are among the worst you'll see in the game at this juncture, while the swing-and-miss in Martin's game offers little hope for a full recovery. Our hard-hit metrics indicate that Martin's power is still there, so a HR boost should be forthcoming, but the damage has been done.

More From Facts & Flukes