BATTING: First-half h% Outliers

Good? Or lucky?

Bad? Or unlucky?

It’s well established that batter skills (ct%, walk rate, Eye, HctX) are more consistent than outcomes, and should therefore be the focus of successful fantasy roster management.

It’s also well known that luck plays an important role in determining those outcomes, especially in short runs.

One of the primary modes of luck in batter performance is hit rate (h%), also called Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). These are the same metric, but expressed differently – h% as a percentage, BABIP as a three-decimal-place number like batting average. At BaseballHQ.com, we use h% as our expression.

In the past, BHQ demonstrated that batter h%, unlike pitcher h%, does not regress to a gamewide...

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