BATTERS: Prepare to Fail

Sixty-four percent of the owners reading this article are going to botch their first round picks next year. It might sound harsh, but it's in black and white right there in your copy of the 2013 Baseball Forecaster. Since 2004, only thirty-six percent of players drafted in the first round (defined here as the first 15 picks) have managed to return first round value. There are lots of factors, but the main reason can be boiled down to this: Players drafted in the first round have very little room for profitability. Their draft position/price makes it critical that they reproduce or even outperform the terrific numbers they produced the previous season, which is a pretty high bar for success.

Much ink will be spilled this offseason...

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