Even the very best set of statistical projections are going to be wrong quite a bit of the time. Some players develop and outpace previous results while others break down and fall short of expectations. Often an assessment of the quality of a given set of projections is reduced to its accuracy in predicting conventional statistics, yet that is only the most obvious piece of the puzzle. Looking deeper into the data elements that yielded those predictions and comparing them to actual results can be useful in shedding light on why certain outcomes are occurring.
This is especially true of critical hitting metrics such as bb% and ct%. Fluctuations in these individual components, as well as with the combination of the two in the form of...
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