(*) BATTERS: 2014 Batting eye improvers and decliners

No set of projections will ever be perfect, as there will always be some players who surpass expectations or fail to live up to them. In order to get a better handle on why a player’s conventional statistics are the way they are, it’s important to dig deeper into key hitting metrics such as bb% and ct% to see if there has been a notable change in a hitter’s approach. This will often shed some light on YTD results and give us a better idea about what to expect over the rest of the season.

This week we will take a look at hitters who have shown significant differences between their YTD batting eye (BB/K) and their 2014 preseason BaseballHQ.com projection. To do this, we took these steps:

• Batters with less than 100 Abs through the games of July 5 were excluded.
• Projected Eye (pEye) was subtracted from actual Eye to give us Eye Differential (EyeDiff)
• Positive EyeDiff indicates a batter who has greatly outperformed his projection whereas a negative EyeDiff indicates a batter whose plate discipline has been below expectations.
• Projected bb% (p-bb%) and projected ct% (p-ct%) are also displayed in the charts below for reference purposes.

First, let’s take a look at players with the most positive Eye Differential:

Name               p-bb%   bb%   p-ct%   ct%   pEye    Eye   EyeDiff
=================  =====   ===   =====   ===   ====   ====   =======
Martinez,Victor       8%   10%     90%   92%   0.89   1.43     +0.54
Solarte,Yangervis     5%   11%     85%   86%   0.33   0.85     +0.52
Norris,Derek         11%   15%     72%   81%   0.44   0.94     +0.50
Suzuki,Kurt           6%    8%     87%   91%   0.47   0.95     +0.48
Altuve,Jose           5%    6%     87%   93%   0.42   0.85     +0.43
La Stella,Tommy      10%   12%     86%   89%   0.78   1.21     +0.43
Lucroy,Jonathan       8%   10%     85%   88%   0.54   0.95     +0.41
Smith,Seth            9%   13%     75%   80%   0.41   0.79     +0.38
McGehee,Casey         7%   10%     79%   84%   0.38   0.74     +0.36
Dozier,Brian          7%   14%     80%   78%   0.38   0.72     +0.34
Abreu,Bobby          12%   12%     75%   84%   0.54   0.88     +0.34
Butera,Drew           3%   10%     73%   75%   0.11   0.43     +0.32
Davis,Ike            14%   15%     72%   79%   0.56   0.87     +0.31
Ramirez,Hanley        8%   12%     82%   82%   0.48   0.78     +0.30
Brantley,Michael      8%    8%     88%   91%   0.67   0.97     +0.30
Ruiz,Carlos           7%   12%     87%   85%   0.60   0.89     +0.29
Crisp,Coco           10%   14%     87%   85%   0.79   1.08     +0.29
Rizzo,Anthony        10%   14%     78%   79%   0.49   0.77     +0.28
LaRoche,Adam         12%   15%     75%   78%   0.54   0.81     +0.27
Hicks,Aaron          10%   18%     71%   67%   0.37   0.64     +0.27
Granderson,Curtis    10%   15%     69%   72%   0.34   0.61     +0.27
Gose,Anthony          7%   13%     69%   71%   0.24   0.50     +0.26
Mayberry,John         7%   12%     75%   75%   0.29   0.54     +0.25
Tulowitzki,Troy      10%   14%     84%   83%   0.71   0.96     +0.25
Lowrie,Jed            9%   11%     83%   84%   0.55   0.78     +0.23
DeJesus,David        10%   12%     81%   82%   0.55   0.78     +0.23
Lind,Adam             9%   10%     78%   82%   0.43   0.65     +0.22
LeMahieu,DJ           4%    8%     85%   83%   0.29   0.51     +0.22
Kendrick,Howie        5%    8%     80%   82%   0.26   0.47     +0.21
D Arnaud,Travis       8%   10%     76%   79%   0.34   0.54     +0.20

Jose Altuve (2B, HOU) has seen his ct% move into the elite category so far this season. His batting average and on-base percentage have far exceeded his personal bests. Not only has the 24-year-old been reaching base at a fantastic clip, but he has also been putting his speed to even better use than in past years with a 35% SBO. Add all those factors together and you’ve got a very dynamic leadoff man and terror on the basepaths. A 36% h% has certainly boosted Altuve’s batting average, but he still owns a .291 xBA, so while he figures to cool a bit in the second half, he should continue to be a solid contributor.

Adam LaRoche (1B, WAS) was a disappointment in 2013, but he has bounced back in a big way. He has shown much more patience as his 0.81 Eye would easily be the best of his career. The 34-year-old has also posted a 123 HctX and 154 xPX which are very similar to the numbers he tallied in those categories during his terrific 2012 season, though his FB% is down 4% from that campaign. His batting average figures to regress toward his .269 xBA, but there’s nothing wrong with that.

Brian Dozier (2B, MIN) has drawn walks at a clip that is twice the rate of his projection and 6% better than last year. His 0.72 Eye would be a career high. A 95 xPX and 15% hr/f rate, which his well above his career 10% hr/f rate, tells us that the power is likely to regress somewhat over the rest of the summer. However, an unlucky 25% h% and a .252 xBA hint at some possible impending gains in batting average. Dozier’s 102 Spd is just slightly above average and when coupled with his 20% SBO% should continue to produce stolen bases at a nice clip.

Seth Smith (OF, SD) has rather quietly put up some pretty good numbers on the league’s worst offense. His bb% and ct% have both been better than projected. Not only has the 31-year-old been making more contact, his current 36% HH% is the best of his career. Smith has always struggled against left-handed pitching and typically is on the bench when the team faces a southpaw starter. Fantasy owners should follow that same plan where possible.

Ike Davis (1B, PIT) seems to be trading power for contact. His bb% and ct% are both better than expected and his present batting average, though just .243, would be his best since 2011. However, his xPX has declined significantly since his first three major league seasons and now sits at 100. The 27-year-old’s 99 HctX is much better than a year ago and his line drive rate is a career best 23%. Davis has been hurt by an unlucky 8% hr/f well below his 15% career rate. Lefties continue to give him fits and he is rarely in the lineup against them. If Davis could maintain his current skills gains while also regaining some more of the power he has shown in the past, he would have something.

The following hitters had a sizeable negative difference in Eye Differential:

Name              p-bb%   bb%   p-ct%   ct%   pEye    Eye   EyeDiff
================  =====   ===   =====   ===   ====   ====   =======
Semien,Marcus       15%    9%     80%   65%   0.86   0.28     -0.58
Hanigan,Ryan        12%   12%     88%   80%   1.21   0.66     -0.55
Shuck,J.B.           7%    2%     89%   89%   0.73   0.22     -0.51
Sanchez,Gaby        12%    6%     81%   73%   0.72   0.24     -0.48
Konerko,Paul        10%    4%     84%   81%   0.69   0.22     -0.47
Prado,Martin         7%    5%     90%   85%   0.81   0.36     -0.45
Aoki,Norichika       8%    7%     92%   89%   1.14   0.70     -0.44
Abreu,Jose          12%    6%     80%   74%   0.66   0.25     -0.41
Kinsler,Ian          9%    5%     88%   89%   0.85   0.47     -0.38
Jaso,John           13%   10%     82%   77%   0.82   0.48     -0.34
Mauer,Joe           12%   10%     84%   79%   0.87   0.53     -0.34
Hill,Aaron           8%    4%     86%   81%   0.59   0.25     -0.34
Cabrera,Miguel      13%    9%     84%   83%   0.93   0.61     -0.32
Bloomquist,Willie    5%    3%     87%   77%   0.44   0.12     -0.32
Ramirez,Aramis       9%    5%     84%   85%   0.63   0.31     -0.32
Schumaker,Skip       8%    4%     83%   81%   0.53   0.24     -0.29
Almonte,Abraham     10%    5%     76%   62%   0.44   0.15     -0.29
Wright,David        12%    7%     81%   79%   0.67   0.38     -0.29
Parmelee,Chris      10%    4%     76%   74%   0.45   0.16     -0.29
Reyes,Jose           9%    7%     89%   87%   0.89   0.61     -0.28
Encarnacion,Edwin   13%   12%     86%   82%   1.03   0.78     -0.25
Alonso,Yonder       10%    5%     84%   86%   0.65   0.41     -0.24
Ethier,Andre        11%    6%     79%   79%   0.56   0.33     -0.23
Belt,Brandon        11%    6%     74%   71%   0.46   0.23     -0.23
Cabrera,Everth       9%    5%     79%   74%   0.44   0.21     -0.23
Uggla,Dan           14%    7%     66%   70%   0.46   0.23     -0.23
Chirinos,Robinson    9%    3%     75%   75%   0.37   0.14     -0.23
Gentry,Craig         8%    5%     81%   77%   0.48   0.25     -0.23
Miller,Bradley      10%    8%     80%   72%   0.54   0.32     -0.22
Punto,Nick          13%   12%     78%   69%   0.67   0.45     -0.22
Utley,Chase         10%    7%     85%   85%   0.74   0.52     -0.22
Harper,Bryce        11%    9%     78%   72%   0.57   0.36     -0.21

Martín Prado (2B/3B/OF, ARI) has been a very consistent player over the past few years, but this season is shaping up to potentially be his worst. He has seen his ct% drop 6% from last year and his Eye has dropped from a career best 0.89 in 2013 to 0.36 so far in 2014. The 30-year-old has a paltry 64 xPX and is hitting balls on the ground more this year than in the past (2014: 54% GB%; career: 48% GB%) so his somewhat unlucky 4% hr/f (career 7% hr/f) doesn’t necessarily hint at any type looming boon. He has good speed, but aside from 2012, has never really converted it into stolen bases. Prado’s versatility is very useful, but fantasy owners expected better offensive production.

David Wright (3B, NYM) is in the midst of a rough season. His 28 BPV is the lowest of his career. His bb% is down 4% from a year ago and his 0.38 Eye is a far cry from the 0.70 Eye he owned in 2013. On the bright side, his ct% has improved with each passing month, as has his Eye. During the month of June, Wright posted an 85% ct% and 0.85 Eye in 86 AB. The 31-year-old’s 117 xPX would be his worst since 2009, but it’s still above average while his 6% hr/f is well below his career 13% hr/f.

Brad Miller (SS, SEA) got off to a rotten start, but has shown some positive signs over the past several weeks. After posting a 68% ct% and 2% bb% in April, he has improved to 74% ct% and 14% bb% in May and 75% ct% and 9% bb% in June. Overall, he owns a 107 xPX and 120 Spd in 250 AB so he is certainly an interesting player to watch in the second half.

Chase Utley (2B, PHI) remains a very solid contributor when healthy. Though his bb% and Eye are down a bit, he continues to make plenty of hard contact as evidenced by a 120 HctX and 131 xPX. His home run production is lagging a bit due to an unfortunate 6% hr/f which is exactly half his career rate. Utley is not the player he once was, but he can still produce quality numbers if his health cooperates.

Aaron Hill (2B, ARI) is making quite a bit of hard contact, but the results have not been there. His 108 HctX and 114 xPX are both very similar to his numbers from last year, but an unlucky 6% hr/f has stifled his power. The biggest change from past seasons has been a decline in ct% and bb% which has produced a 0.25 Eye, well below his career 0.50 Eye and the 0.60 Eye he has amassed over the past two seasons. Health has always been an issue with Hill, but his numbers should show at least modest improvement over the balance of the season.

As you can see, simply being on one of these lists does not guarantee the results we might expect. There are some who have improved their batting Eye and yet struggled to varying degrees just as there are some on the list of decliners who have managed to flourish. However, assessing a player’s batting eye can help us detect changes in approach, assist in explaining changes in production and be a useful component in trying to predict future performance. 

 

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