(*) MINORS: 2016 top catching prospects

Photo: Gary Sánchez (C, NYY)

This week we kick off our annual review of the top prospects in baseball by position. Between now and Opening Day, we'll examine one position a week by looking at both those rookies ready to contribute in the big leagues now, as well as the top 15 long-term prospects at each position.

We start with the catchers. Because of the physical demands of the position as well as the strong preferences for catchers to be sound defensively, very few backstops project to receive much playing time in 2016. There doesn't appear to be any prospects who are expected to win a starting job out of spring training. While injuries and trades often result in unforeseen opportunities, it seems unlikely these backstops will play pivotal roles in the majors this season. 

The long-term prospects at this position also seems to be weaker than in previous seasons. Only three catchers appeared on the HQ100, with the highest ranked one (Jorge Alfaro) came in at #72. There were split opinions among the five minor league contributors to the HQ100 as Alfaro, Willson Contreras, and Tyler Stephenson only appeared on three of the five individual top 100 lists. 

The dollar ranges listed below represent projected values for 2016. (See a more detailed scouting report on each player by following the link to his team's organization report or PlayerLink page.)

$1-$5
Gary Sánchez (NYY)
Max Stassi (HOU)
Austin Barnes (LA)
Dustin Garneau (COL)
Jett Bandy (LAA)
Tom Murphy (COL)
Willson Contreras (CHC)

Though none of these catchers are expected to win a starting job in spring training, Tom Murphy appears to at least have a chance at securing a significant amount of playing time if he effectively showcases his wares. He'll battle with Dustin Garneau for at least the backup job in Colorado.

Max Stassi has appeared in the majors in each of the past three seasons and is expected to win the backup job in Houston. He's a short and strong backstop who owns average tools across the board. He continues to be a solid receiver and blocker, though his fringy arm strength limits his ability to control basestealers. He doesn't hit for BA as his swing tends to get long, but his natural strength and quick wrists inject power to all fields. 

The Dodgers benefit by having Austin Barnes on the roster as he can play both catcher and 2B. He has both Yasmani Grandal and A.J. Ellis above him on the depth chart, but that doesn't mean he can't win a spot on the team. The 26-year-old hit .315 with 9 HR in Triple-A in 2015 and earned 29 AB in the majors. His contact-oriented approach limits his pop, but he can get on base consistently and hit for a respectable BA.

Jett Bandy is poised to begin the 2016 season in the minors, but the Angels will likely summon him at some point in 2016. He earned a September call-up in 2015 after having a breakout season in Triple-A (.291/.347/.466 with 11 HR) and he isn't a slouch defensively. His offense is all about power as he has a leveraged swing that masks his fringy bat speed. He also owns good catch and throw skills.

The Cubs added Willson Contreras to their 40-man roster in November and he will start the season in the minors. After a 2015 season in Double-A that saw him hit .333/.413/.478 with 8 HR, he was anointed the catcher of the future despite needing work behind the plate. He has good pop and the aptitude to get better with his glovework. The future looks bright for the 23-year-old.

Gary Sánchez's value is all tied to his bat and he could make waves in 2016 as a DH if necessary. His defensive work still lags behind his bat, but it is getting better. Even if the Yankees decide to move him off catcher - and there are no indications they are considering that - he could be a fantasy contributor with his above average power and solid-average BA ability. There is little doubt he'll make a contribution in 2016 and could make a strong push to win the backup job behind Brian McCann.

 

Top 15 Catching Prospects
1. Jorge Alfaro (PHI)
2. Willson Contreras (CHC)
3. Tyler Stephenson (CIN)
4. Gary Sánchez (NYY)
5. Chance Sisco (BAL)
6. Max Pentecost (TOR)
7. Jacob Nottingham (OAK)
8. Reese McGuire (PIT)
9. Taylor Ward (LAA)
10. Aramis Garcia (SF)
11. Andrew Knapp (PHI)
12. Justin O'Conner (TAM)
13. Francisco Mejía (CLE)
14. Dom Nuñez (COL)
15. Tom Murphy (COL)

Despite missing significant time in 2015 with an ankle injury, the 22-year-old Jorge Alfaro is the top ranked catcher in the HQ100. He only accumulated 190 AB in Double-A in the Rangers organization prior to his acquisition by the Phillies in late July. He has All-Star potential and could be a standout with the bat in particular. He has excellent, raw power and could hit for BA if he improves his pitch recognition and contact. Though he has a well above average arm, his receiving skills need attention. He will likely return to Double-A and take a full season of instruction before challenging for a full-time spot in 2017.

The Reds selected Tyler Stephenson with the 11th overall pick in the 2015 draft and expect him to develop into an elite catcher. There is a lot to like on both sides of the ball. He has excellent size and strength, but his plus raw power hasn't yet developed. He'll also need to address his inability to make consistent contact. On the other hand, he's also a solid defender now and he could evolve into a plus backstop due to his natural arm strength and receiving skills. 

Injuries impacted the 2015 seasons for both Chance Sisco (BAL) and Max Pentecost (TOR). The 20-year-old Sisco was outstanding in High-A (.308/.387/.422 with 4 HR in 263 AB), but struggled in Double-A upon his promotion. He is a professional hitter who can hit .300+ with at least average pop. Pentecost missed the entire season after shoulder surgery, but he was a first round selection in 2014 and he could move quickly once he returns to full health.

Two sleepers on the list include Jacob Nottingham (OAK) and Francisco Mejía (CLE). Nottingham, 20, was outstanding in his first full season in the minors, hitting over .300 with 17 HR between Low-A and High-A. The Astros traded him to Oakland in July 2015. His defense is a bit short right now, but the Athletics will give him time to improve. He could become an offense-first backstop who hits for a nice BA with above average pop. Mejia's numbers didn't stand out in Low-A (.243/.324/.345), but he finished the season strong and has All-Star potential. He drives the ball to all fields and has the tools to be excellent behind the plate.

 

ALEC DOPP'S WATCHLIST

During these position rankings and analysis columns over the next several weeks, Alec Dopp, BaseballHQ's resident WatchList expert, will provide his unique assessments on interesting prospects and their fantasy outlooks. 

Tom Murphy (COL)
Murphy figures to offer good value as a cheap, under-the-radar power source. The 24-year-old last year muscled 20 HR and a 49 x/h% across 101 games in the upper minors, and followed suit with 3 HR as a September call-up. Murphy is aggressive and struggles putting bat on ball at times, which will limit his BA ceiling. But he works the count well and draws walks at an above-average clip, which ought to enhance his future value in OBP leagues. Colorado’s catcher situation could give him a chance at quality PT, too, which means now could be the time to buy low on Murphy’s raw power.

Aramis Garcia (SF)
While Garcia’s defensive chops still require some polish, his bat showed palpable signs of maturity during a 15 HR, .774 OPS campaign last season in the low minors. There’s reason to believe Garcia could maintain that level of production in the big leagues, too, given his strong wrists, above-average fly ball profile and relatively refined approach – he posted a 0.45 Eye across 447 PA in 2015 – at the plate. The key will be sharpening his glove and footwork enough to remain behind the dish for the long haul, which will ultimately provide the most value for fantasy owners long-term.

Reese McGuire (PIT)
McGuire has a chance to contribute to a number of fantasy categories at maturation. His quality contact skills and ability to spray the ball to all fields give reason to believe his BA ceiling his quite high. Likewise, he shows a disciplined approach – 0.67 Eye last season in High-A – and could have double-digit SB potential thanks to his athleticism and good instincts on the bases. A high ground-ball profile suggests he won’t make much impact in power. But then again, he’s still 20 and has some projection left on his frame and could hit for at least average pop down the road. 

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