(*) MINORS: 2015 Arizona Fall League preview

The Arizona Fall League begins October 13 and this year's rosters, with representatives from all 30 MLB teams, are packed with excellent prospects who have a chance to become outstanding big leaguers. Similar to past years, the pitching ranks are quite thin, but there are several position players worthy of acclaim. What follows is a snapshot of some of the top pitchers, players, and sleepers to follow during the 2015 AFL season.

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Salt River Rafters (ARI, COL, NYM, TOR, WAS)
Roster Summary: Salt River doesn’t have a ton of elite-level talent, but on most days their lineup should be formidable. On the dirt, the Rafters are deep and feature Trea Turner (SS, WAS), Dominic Smith (1B, NYM), Gavin Cecchini (SS, NYM), and Rowdy Tellez (1B, TOR)—all of whom are top 10 prospects in their respective organizations. In the OF, the Rockies David Dahl is the cream of the crop, but Diamondbacks Daniel Palka and the Rockies Jordan Patterson put up better numbers. Palka had 36 doubles and 29 home runs and Paterson had 45 doubles and 17 home runs in 2015. Gabby Guerrero (OF, ARI) is the nephew of former major leaguer Vladimir Guerrero, and has some nice tools. 

Best Position Player: Turner was the PTBNL in the Wil Myers deal and is one of the better pure hitters in the minors. Turner has a career slash line of .322/.384/.454 in 185 games, and his speed has the makings of a huge fantasy asset. Defensively he has decent range, good hands, and an average arm, but will need to prove he can handle SS and the AFL will be a good proving ground. 

Best Pitcher: Kyle Freeland (LHP, COL) is a tall, projectable lefty who was the 8th overall pick in 2014 draft. Freeland was limited in 2015 due to both a shoulder and elbow injury and logged just 46.2 innings. He was back in action in August and should be 100% this fall. The 22-year-old has plus command and has walked just 16 in 85.2 innings as a pro, but doesn’t miss as many bats as his stuff would suggest. His fastball sits in the 91-93 mph range and tops out at 97 mph. He also has a plus slider, but his change-up is a work in progress. A solid fall could be a springboard to a mid-season MLB debut.

Sleeper Prospect: The Diamondbacks took a huge risk when they inked Cuban defector Yoan López (RHP, ARI) to a six-year, $68.5 million deal in January, 2015. In Cuba Lopez showed plus velocity with his fastball sitting at 93-95 mph and topping out at 100 mph.  He also throws a curve, slider, and change-up. Lopez looked rusty in his stateside debut, going 2-6 with a 4.17 ERA, striking out just 38 in 54 innings. Lopez was shut down early this season with tightness in his pitching elbow. The AFL tends to be a tough pitching environment, but at the very least Lopez needs to prove he’s healthy and has the same kind of stuff he showed while in Cuba.

Issues to Watch: Turner has a chance to show he’s ready to take over for Ian Desmond in Washington, but needs to answer questions about his range and glove work. Similarly, a strong AFL could put the Rockies David Dahl in contention for a significant role in 2016. He won’t likely start the season in the majors, but a strong fall could put him in line for a mid-season promotion. 

 

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Peoria Javelinas (SD, ATL, SEA, CIN, BAL) 
Roster Summary: The Javelinas have one of the better rotations in the AFL and have nice mix of power and speed. On the mound Peoria is led by Mauricio Cabrera (RHP, ATL), James Paxton (LHP, SEA), Nick Travieso (RHP, CIN), and Lucas Sims (RHP, ATL). On offense, the Javelinas aren’t going to lead the AFL in home runs, but have some interesting players, led by Reds OF Phillip Ervin and SS Alex Blandino, Padres OF Travis Jankowski, and Mariners 3B D.J. Peterson. Jankowski hit .335 in the minors with 32 SB, but looked over-matched in 90 AB with the Padres. Still, his experience at the high minors and plus speed should play well in the AFL. Evrin also has plus speed and swiped 34 bases to go along with 14 home runs, but is a career .253 hitter. Mike Yastrzemski (OF, BAL) is the grandson of former major league great Carl Yastrzemki and was impressive this year, hitting .288/.346/.490 with 34 doubles, 16 triples, 14 home runs, and 18 SB. Because of his size (5’11”, 180) and age (25) he doesn’t get a lot of attention, but he’s a solid ball player.

Best Position Player: The Seattle Mariners D.J. Peterson (3B) had a monster season in 2014, hitting .297 with 31 doubles and 31 home runs, but took a significant step back this year, hitting just .223 with 7 home runs. A strained Achilles caused him to be shut down in August, but doesn’t fully explain his offensive woes. He will need to show that 2015 was a fluke.

Best Pitcher: The Atlanta Braves Lucas Sims (RHP) was the 21st player taken in the 2012 draft. He’s been somewhat slow to develop, but still has good mid-rotation stuff. The 21-year-old Sims has a nice 90-94 mph fastball that has late arm-side run and mixes in a slurvy and inconsistent breaking ball. The biggest thing holding Sims back has been his lack of control. This year Sims walked 52 batters in 87.2 IP, but still managed to post a 3.21 ERA in nine Double-A starts. Sims will be tested in the AFL, but a career .227 oppBAA in an 8.6 Dom rate hint at the long-term potential.

Sleeper Prospect: Rule 5 pick Daniel Winkler (RHP, ATL) is working his way back from Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the season. Winkler doesn’t have premium stuff, but led the minors in strikeouts in 2013, locates the ball well, and gets some deception from a low ¾ arm slot that keeps hitters off balance. He mixes in a good slider and change as well and should fare well. A good stint in the AFL, could lead to a roster spot (most likely in relief) in 2016.

Issues to Watch: Starting pitching Paxton will be one of oldest and most experienced pitchers in the league; he just needs his health to cooperate. Cabrera is a complete wild card. If he can show even moderate improvement in his control he has the velocity to dominate at the next level. His oppBAA at Double-A was .188, but his WHIP was 1.73. The Rafters should be fun to watch with Jankowski, Yastrzemski, and Ervin as exciting young players.

 

Mesa Solar Sox (CHC, TAM, MIA, LAA, OAK) 
Roster Summary: The Solar Sox should be one of the more balanced clubs in the AFL. On the mound they have a trio of high-upside starters in Jarred Cosart (RHP, MIA) Pierce Johnson (RHP, CHC), and Sean Manaea (LHP, OAK). Cosart, a former 38th round pick, continues to have premium velocity, but below-average control and health issues have held him back. Johnson has also struggled with control (3.7 Ctl)  since being drafted in the 1st round in 2012, but induces weak contact and has a career .226 oppBAA. On offense, the Solar Sox will be led by Rays top position prospect SS Daniel Robertson and A’s SS Chad Pinder. The 23-year-old Pinder is coming off his best season as a pro and for the year hit .317/.361/.486 with 32 doubles and 15 home runs at Double-A. He’s a free swinger and will likely be moved to 2B down the road, but he has legit pop in his bat. 1B Casey Gillaspie (TAM) was the 20th pick in the 2014 draft, but has yet to put it all together. He was limited by a left wrist injury, but he did slug 17 HR in 281 AB and could contend for the AFL HR title. The Solar Sox OF is among the weakest in the AFL and doesn’t have a top prospect in the group, so their pitching and stelar infield will need to be sharp for the club to compete this fall.

Best Position Player: Daniel Robertson (SS, TAM) was the 34th pick in 2012 and was traded to the Rays as part of the 2014 Ben Zobrist and Yunel Escobar deal. Robertson uses a short, compact stroke and plus bat speed to shoot line drives to all fields. A broken hamate bone limited him to 307 AB and he will need to prove he can stick at SS. A strong fall could put Robertson in contention for the Rays starting role next spring.

Best Pitcher: The A’s minor league system doesn’t have much in the way of top-end pitching prospects, but they do have Sean Manaea (LHP, OAK). The long, lean lefty was the 34th pick in 2013 and came over from the Royals as part of the 2015 Zobrist deal. Manaea missed a chunk of action with an oblique injury, but was dominant when he was on the bump, going 7-1 with a 2.66 ERA and striking out 90 in 74.1 innings. His heater sits at 90-94, topping out at 96 mph to go along with a decent slider and inconsistent split-change. Control can be an issue, but he also gets plenty of swings-and-misses and has a career Dom rate of 10.8. Oakland has a solid track record of developing their young pitching talent, so a strong AFL could land Manaea in the majors early in 2016.

Sleeper Prospect: Willson Contreras (C, CHI) had a breakout campaign in 2015, hitting .333/.413/.478 in 126 Double-A contests. He isn’t going to replace Miguel Montero anytime soon, but the 23-year-old out of Venezuela can rake and shows solid plate discipline (57 BB/62 K). Contreras remains a bit raw behind the plate and the AFL will be a good test to see if he can stick at the position, but he has nice athleticism for a backstop and should be fun to watch.

Issues to Watch: It will be interesting to see if Manaea can thrive in the hitter-friendly AFL. He certainly has the stuff and competitiveness to do so and the AFL could mark the beginning of a breakout for this undervalued lefty. In addition, we should get a good sense of whether Robertson and Pinder have what it takes to stick at SS. In the past, teams have used the AFL as a chance to try players at new positions so the two could move between SS and 2B. Finally, can Jarred Cosart put it all together? He certainly has the raw stuff and has had good runs in the past, but needs to prove he can be more consistent in order to secure a spot in the Marlins starting rotation.

 

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Glendale Desert Dogs (CHW, HOU, LA, PHI, PIT)
Roster Summary: The Desert Dogs should have plenty of firepower, but have one of the thinnest pitching staffs in the AFL. On offense they have several Top 100 prospects, led by Phillies SS J.P. Crawford. Behind the plate the Desert Dogs have Andrew Knapp (C, PHI), Kyle Farmer (C, LA), and Reese McGuire (C, PIT). McGuire has yet to have the offensive breakout many anticipated, but he just turned 20 in March and has already had a full-season of action at High-A. Knapp, a former 2nd round pick, had a breakout season, hitting .308/.385/.491 between High-A and Double-A. In the OF, the Desert Dogs have Derek Fisher (OF, HOU), Courtney Hawkins (OF, CHW), and Austin Meadows (OF, PIT). Fisher belted 22 home runs in 2015 and his prospect status is on the rise. If Glendale fares well it won’t be because of pitching depth or talent on the mound and the Desert Dogs have a mish-mash of experienced organizational types and former prospects. Peter Tago (RHP, COL) and Tom Windle (LHP, PHI) were drafted in the 1st and 2nd rounds respectively, but have been disappointing as professionals and none of the Glendale hurlers made the Top 10 in their organizations coming into 2015.

Best Position Player: Not only is J.P. Crawford (SS, PHI) the best position player on the squad, but he has established himself as one of the Top 10 prospects in baseball. The 16th overall pick in 2013 can do it all. He is already one of the best defenders in the minors and has the potential to be a Gold Glover in the majors. When drafted, there were concerns about his offensive potential, but Crawford hit .392 in a brief stint in the pitcher-friendly FSL and then held his own as a 20-year-old at Double-A. He should be in the majors by mid-2016 if not sooner and has tremendous long-term potential.

Best Pitcher: Calling Phillies lefty Tom Windle the best pitching prospect on the team should not be interpreted as a ringing endorsement. He barely cracked out Phillies Top 15 prospects last year and he wasn’t any better in 2015, going 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA. The 23-year-old Windle came over to the Phillies as part of the Jimmy Rollins deal and has a decent low-90s heater that in the past he commanded reasonably well. This year, however, Windle saw his command and dominance head in the wrong direction (4.7 Ctl and 5.9 Dom). The Phillies are hoping that a move to relief will simplify things and he did look better in that role—2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 26 innings.

Sleeper Prospect: The Pirates Steven Brault (LHP) came over from the Orioles as the PTBNL in the Travis Snider trade and continued to put up impressive numbers despite less than overwhelming stuff. Brault was a good two-way player in college and has relatively low mileage on his arm. He rarely cracks 90 mph with his fastball, but locates it well with good sinking action and mixes in a plus change-up and a decent slider. He profiles as a prototypical command and control, back-end lefty and he should hold his own in the AFL.

Issues to Watch: It will be interesting to see how the Desert Dogs deal with their lack of impact pitching. AFL games are notoriously long and high scoring so the lack of starting pitching might not matter and it gives a player like Steven Brault a chance to shine. Scouts and observers will get an extended look at one of the best prospects in baseball and two or three years down the road we might be saying “Remember the year J.P. Crawford, Trea Turner, and Daniel Robertson were all in the AFL at the same time?” The White Sox Courtney Hawkins needs to do something in the AFL to re-establish himself as an elite prospect, but he really isn’t in the same class as the Pirates Austin Meadows or the Astros Derek Fisher.

 

Scottsdale Scorpions (BOS, SF, MIN, DET, CLE)
Roster Summary: On paper at least, the Scorpions will have one of the weakest clubs in the AFL and they enter the fall with just one Top 100 prospect—Indians OF Clint Frazier.  Twins OF Adam Brett Walker has huge raw power, but his all or nothing approach results in below-average contact. Still Walker his 25 home runs in 2015 and the hitter-friendly AFL should be to his liking. On the dirt, Tigers prospect JaCoby Jones has a similar profile. The Tigers acquired Jones when they trade Joakim Soria to the Pirates and Jones has well above-average power. In 2015 he hit 25 doubles and 16 home runs, but also struck out 165 times in 525 AB. Red Sox 2nd round pick Sam Travis will hold down 1B and unlike Jones and Walker, has a good under of the strike zone (59 BB/77 K) and solid gap power.

Best Position Player: Frazier was the 5th pick in 2013 out of high school in Georgia and has across the board tools. As a 20-year-old hit .285/.377/.465 with 36 doubles, 16 home runs, and 15 SB and has 20/20 potential.

Best Pitcher: Tigers righty Austin Kubitza (RHP) ranks as the top starter on a team devoid of impact arms. The 4th round pick has as fastball that sits in the 88-92 mph range, topping out at 93 mph with good, late sinking action. He uses the plus sinker to great effect and induces tons of ground ball outs. Kubtiza also has a decent slider and underdeveloped change-up. He had an impressive breakout in 2014, going 10-2 with a 2.34 ERA, but took a significant step back in 2015. He found Double-A tough sledding and for the year was 9-13 with a 5.79 ERA and saw him Ctl and Dom head in the wrong direction. Still on a team that will need pitching help in the near future, Kubitza is worth keeping an eye on.

Sleeper Prospect: Ray Black (RHP, SF) was a 7th round pick out of the University of Pittsburgh and has some of the best velocity in the organization, routinely hitting 100 mph and mixing in a plus 12-6 power curveball. Black has worked exclusively in relief since being drafted and looked fully recovered from a torn labrum muscle. Black dominated in the hitter-friendly CAL, going 2-1 with a 2.88 ERA. In his brief minor league career, Black now has as Dom rate of 18.2 and is definitely a reliever worth watching.

Issues to Watch: In order to be competitive the Scorpions will need solid production from some unheralded players. Jones, Walker, and Mac Williamson (OF, SF) are experienced prospects who can crush mistakes and good fastballs. Cuban import Yandy Díaz (3B, CLE) is a plus defender who fared well in his full-season U.S. debut, hitting .315/.412/.408 at Double-A who should develop at least average power and is worth keeping an eye on given the Indians lack of production at the hot corner.

 

Surprise Saguaros (MIL, KC, NYY, STL, TEX)
Roster Summary: The Saguaros have an interesting mix of elite, high-end prospects and a couple of players with significant MLB experience. Offensively the club is led by the deepest OF in the AFL that includes Brett Phillips (MIL), Tyler Austin (NYY), Charlie Tilson (STL), Michael Reed (MIL) Bubba Starling (KC), and Lewis Brinson (TEX). The enigmatic Gary Sánchez will split time behind the plate with the Royals Zane Evans and the Cardinals Mike Ohlman. Sanchez had a solid season at the plate, hitting .274/.330/.485 with 23 doubles and 18 home runs, but continues to underwhelm observers due to a perceived lack of maturity and hustle. On the mound the Saguaros will be led by Cardinals super prospect Alex Reyes (RHP), Ian Clarkin (LHP, NYY), Adrian Houser (RHP, MIL), and Josh Hader (LHP, MIL). Rounding out the squad will be the Rangers Jurickson Profar (2B) and Ryan Rua (OF), neither of whom have rookie eligibility, but will instead use the AFL as a chance to get playing time as they recover from injury.

Best Position Player: The Brewers scored an impressive coup when they dealt Carlos Gómez and Mike Fiers to the Astros for Domingo Santana (OF, MIL) and Brett Phillips (OF, MIL). The left-handed hitting Phillips ripped the cover off the ball in the CAL before being moved up to Double-A and then traded and for the year hit .309/.374/.527 with 34 doubles, 14 triples, 16 home runs, and 17 SB. Phillips needs to make more consistent contact, but has the tools to be a 20/20 and showed enough range to stick in CF. A strong performance in the AFL and a strong spring could land Phillips in the Brewers opening day lineup.

Best Pitcher: There are few better pitching prospects in the minors right now than the Cardinals Alex Reyes (RHP). The precocious Reyes didn’t turn 21 until the end of August and simply overpowered hitters at High-A and Double-A. On the year, Reyes was 5-7 with a 2.49 ERA, walking 49 while striking out 151 in 101.1 innings. His plus, plus heater sits at 93-96 mph with good, late life and tops out at 100 mph. Reyes isn’t just a flamethrower and mixes in a plus power curve and an inconsistent change-up. If the change-up and command continue to improve, he has the stuff to be a #1 starter. He missed action with a sore shoulder, but should be 100% for the AFL and could be in the majors by mid-2016 if not sooner.

Sleeper Prospect: The Cardinals Charlie Tilson (OF) doesn’t do anything that really grabs your attention, but he has good athleticism and is a high-energy CF with a nice, compact LH-stroke. Tilson can be overly aggressive at the plate, but continues to make progress and for the year hit .295/.351/.388 with 20 doubles, 4 home runs, and 46 SB. In most other organizations, Tilson would profile as a speedy 4th OF type, but the Cardinals have done such a good job getting the most out of their young players, that Tilson bears watching.

Issues to Watch: Despite the presence of some really good prospects, most observers will be focused on the health of Jurickson Profar. The talented Profar has played in just 12 games since 2013 and the luster has certainly come off his star, but keep in mind that he is still just 22 years old and still has immense potential. Another interesting plot line will be the play of the Yankees Gary Sánchez. He has all the tools to be a star, but needs to prove he isn’t the 2nd coming of Jesus Montero. Finally, will Alex Reyes dominate in the AFL like he at every other level he’s played at? And assuming he does dominate, how long will it be before he joins the Cardinals starting rotation?

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