RESEARCH: Expected Dom & Swing Metrics
Feb 28 2019
Introduction
BaseballHQ.com and Baseball Forecaster readers are acquainted with expected Dom (xDom), which describes the relationship between swinging strikes (SwK) and Dom. In addition, the Pitcher Matchup Tool also makes use of recent SwK% to predict upcoming starts.
Today, we’ll examine whether additional swing and contact metrics can add to our understanding of expected Dom. We’ll also review several models for the expected Dom for the upcoming season.
Methodology
We use season totals for all pitchers from 2002-2018, downloaded from fangraphs.com. For multiple year comparisons, we’ll weight the results by the harmonic mean of innings pitched over the seasons in question. The parameters we will consider are as follows:
- Dom...
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