SPECULATOR: Switching it up

Regression is our game's most powerful force.

Sage advice and a foundational piece to our fanalytic toolbox, but here in the Speculator we can bend the rules. As we search for new ways to dissect the data from last year's 60-game sprint, we'll use pitch-level data to identify starters who changed their approach by switching up their pitch mix. The idea is that with a new arsenal, they're a different pitcher than they were before and more likely to repeat 2020's success over a longer haul. 

The poster boy for this type of analysis is Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW). Giolito had some of the worst ratios in baseball before breaking out in 2019, when he ditched his mediocre curveball for more elite change-ups and picked up almost 2mph on his...

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