2024 rookie class check-ins

It’s time for the annual check-up.

Not the one with your doc (though please don't skip those!), but our annual check-in on each season's rookie class. As with other years, we’ll use this year's HQ100 for this exercise, limiting our observations to those who have had a decent-sized MLB audition so far. Given the influx of top-tier talent—we've seen 11 of the top 16 prospects make their MLB debuts in 2024—this list only covers prospects in the Top 25 who have seen enough MLB playing time to make somewhat of a judgment. We'll cover notables outside the Top 25 in similar fashion next week.

Our method is to give a quick synopsis of what we’ve seen so far, and then use the skills to speculate a bit on how this season portends to each player’s long-term fantasy ceiling.

We present these in HQ100 order:

Jackson Holliday | #1 on the 2024 HQ100
What we've seen: Holliday's first stint in the majors was brutal and shortlived—he struck out in half of his first 36 plate appearances and was sent back to Triple-A in just two weeks. After posting a .908 OPS at AAA-Norfolk, Holliday was called back up and hit a grand slam in his first game back on July 31.

Revised outlook: As a Top-200 preseason pick, Holliday has been a major disappointment in redraft leagues, but the initial struggles should have no bearing on his long-term outlook. He was a 20-year-old kid seeing MLB pitching for the first time, it was a two-week sample, and the Triple-A performance (remember, he's still young for that level) has been fine. Holliday should get regular playing time for Baltimore the rest of the way—it wouldn't surprise us if he takes off in his second go-round. 

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Jackson Chourio | #2
What we've seen: Chourio signed an eight-year, $82 million contract before the season and has been a regular all year. His rolling weight on-base average (wOBA; league-average: .311) from FanGraphs aptly shows the April-May lows followed by a nice in-season rebound:

Revised outlook: Chourio's skills since June give the in-season growth plenty of legs: he's making more contact (83% ct%; 70% through May) with plenty of quality (122 PX), and he's staying active on the basepaths. Oh, and like Holliday, he's just 20 years old. Chourio's tracking to clear a 15/15 HR/SB rookie year with above-average BA… we'll be on breakout watch for his sophomore season in 2025.

Wyatt Langford | #3
What we've seen: A scorching spring training, but an otherwise underwhelming debut, particularly for those who took Langford as a Top-125 pick in redraft leagues. Langford's 9 SB have somewhat buoyed his fantasy value, but he didn't hit his first outside-the-park HR until June 18, and an underlying .228 xBA says he's been fortunate to hold a .250 BA thus far. 

Revised outlook: We tabbed Langord as a Second-Half All-Star after seeing some growth signs in June, but Langford has followed that up with a mediocre July (.216/.235 BA/xBA, 24 BPV). This is probably the buy time to buy low, however, as Langford has shown league-average power (98 xPX) without the results to show for it (5% HR/F), and prospects with 9B ratings rarely grow on trees. The revised outlook takes a slight hit, but this is still a primo long-term piece.

Paul Skenes | #6
What we've seen: Sky-high expectations…and he's exceeded them. Skenes is a darkhorse NL Cy Young candidate—despite not even making his debut until May 11—thanks to a 1.99 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 107/19 K/BB over 86 innings. 

Revised outlook: Concerns over pitcher injuries aside, Skenes has to be the no-doubt top overall prospect in a revised ranking, right? No other rookie has come close to making the fantasy impact of Skenes this year, and given the elite underlying skills (28% K-BB%, 2.57 xERA, 50% GB%), he could be the first pitcher taken in 2025 drafts. Not too shabby just over a year removed from being on campus in Baton Rouge.

Evan Carter | #8
What we've seen: Yikes. Carter's strong 2023 postseason as a 20-year-old fanned some mega draft-season hype, making him one of the bigger rookie busts at his draft cost. Carter has a meager .188/.272/.361 slash line through 162 PA and is currently on the IL with a back injury that might cost him the rest of the season.

Revised outlook: Carter actually flashed some decent power (113/109 PX/xPX) and was 2-for-2 on the basepaths, but a 22% h% helped drive his BA to the ground. We noted some platoon concerns with Carter in the Baseball Forecaster, and sure enough, he saw just 29 PA against lefties. Carter's revised outlook depends on your league format—he's much more valuable in points or OBP leagues—but the platoon issues and risk of recurring back injuries have to lower his stock in what's mostly been a lost season.

James Wood | #10
What we've seen: Wood got the call on July 1 after a half-season of eye-popping production at Triple-A. He's looked strong through a one-month sample, going 29-for-112 (.259 BA) with 2 HR and 3 SB. He's making a ton of hard contact—Wood's 93.4 mph average exit velocity ranks 11th among all hitters with 100+ PA—but it's almost entirely been on the ground (60% GB%).

Revised outlook: Wood spent some time on the IL (hamstring) in the minors, but this has to be seen as major step forward. We can nitpick the early contact rate (63% ct%), but the power absolutely looks legit for a 21-year-old seeing MLB pitching for the first time. Sky's the limit for this 6'7" behemoth with tools for days.

Colt Keith | #13
What we've seen: Things didn't start so hot with a .158 BA and 0 HR through April, but Keith has adjusted nicely with a .287 BA, 11 HR, and 3 SB since May 1. He's been a fixture near the top of the Detroit Tigers lineup while also graduating from an early-season platoon role. 

Revised outlook: Keith's season-to-date line doesn't jump off the page, but the in-season improvement as a 22-year-old has been impressive to watch. Keith's contact rate has held steady (78% ct% or higher in each month), and he's flashed two months with above-average power. He's probably not a star in the making, but we have to chalk up Keith's debut as a success in a year when many others in this class have flopped.

Pete Crow-Armstrong | #15
What we've seen: A good chunk of playing time thanks to his glove in center field, but it's come with very little outside of his 21 SB so far. Crow-Armstrong teased us with a 2-HR game the day before the All-Star break, but he's hit just one more over his other 225 plate appearances, as his batting average hovers around the Mendoza Line. 

Revised outlook: It's a downgrade, as concerns over Crow-Armstrong's plate approach and power as a prospect haven't gone away in the big leagues. Crow-Armstrong has shown a brutal batting Eye (0.19 Eye; 4% bb%, 74% ct%) with subpar raw power (79/77 PX/xPX) and an xBA (.221) that doesn't give much hope for BA growth. The speed is elite—"PCA" is a perfect 21-for-21 on the basepaths—and the glove can play, but he's at risk of becoming a one-trick pony for fantasy purposes. 

Jackson Merrill | #16
What we've seen: Merrill didn't come with the price tag that others above him commanded on draft day (379 ADP), but he made his debut in the Korea Series and hasn't looked back. Merrill has been the top rookie hitter this season with a .283 BA, 13 HR, and 11 SB through 408 plate appearances.

Revised outlook: The skills support much of what Merrill is doing: the plate skills (79% ct%, .266 xBA) mostly support that surface-level BA, he's shown above-average raw power (117 xPX), and he's 11-for-13 on the basepaths… all as a 21-year-old rookie who's manned center field for 109 of his team's first 113 games. Impressive stuff.

Kyle Harrison | #25
What we've seen: Harrison has been a fixture in San Francisco's rotation, but it's been a mediocre season on the surface with a 4.09 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6 wins, and 94 strikeouts in 101.1 IP.

Revised outlook: This 2024 version of Harrison has been different than what we saw in the minors, mostly due to a tumbling strikeout rate. Harrison's 22% K% pales in comparison to the 36% mark we saw over 65 Triple-A innings last season, and a lack of whiffs (9.9% SwK overall; no pitches with a >12% SwK) doesn't give much hope for immediate gains at this point. Harrison's control has improved, but unless he starts missing more bats, this is looking more like a mid/back-end rotation streamer in a favorable home park.

We'll return with more revised outlooks outside the Top 25 next week!

 

 

The Speculator is not designed to make definitive assertions about the future; rather, it is designed solely to open readers' eyes to possibilities they may not have previously entertained, and in doing so, provide a different perspective on the future. Many of the possibilities will be of the "out on a limb" variety. All are founded on SOME element of fact. But none should be considered any more than 20% percentage plays.

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