RESEARCH: Welcome, Expected Wins
Jun 6 2016
If you take a gander at a starting pitcher's player page, you'll see a new statistic tucked in next to xERA: Expected Wins (xW). This measures, for starting pitchers, the number of wins we would expect them to have given: 1) how well they have pitched, as reflected by ERA, and 2) how strong their team's offense is, as reflected in runs per game. As with many other "expected" statistics, any significant variations between wins and expected wins could presage an upcoming change for that pitcher in terms of future win totals.
Looking at any season's results, there are always starting pitchers whose win totals don't match up to their performance. In 2014, Jeff Samardzija won only 7 games, despite posting a 2.99 ERA in 33 starts. And in...
Almost!
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