RESEARCH: April Offensive Hot Starts: How Much Should We Invest?

Each year some players have hot starts, and during the first few weeks of free agent bidding/waiver pickups we have to make decisions about how aggressively to chase these players.  At BaseballHQ.com, we consistently counsel owners to practice patience and not make decisions on small sample sizes.  This article focuses on potential free agents who had a "hot start" in one of the 5x5 offensive categories during the 2009-2011 seasons, and examines the results of investments in those free agents.

A hot start was defined as being in the MLB top 25 of the offensive category at the end of April.  Free agents were defined as players entering the season with an ADP (Average Draft Position) of 325 or higher.  This was calculated by assuming...

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