2026 Prognosticating Successes, Part 1

It's that time of year. Pumpkin is now appearing in lattes and beer, folks are digging out their long-sleeved shirts, and football games collide with baseball playoff action. That also means it's time to see how BaseballHQ did in our pre-season predictive player analysis.

Here, we review the good calls—where the BaseballHQ process foretold a spike or dip in performance. Most of these commentaries appeared either on the site in the pre-season or in the 2026 Baseball Forecaster. Each provides a concrete example of how our projection model and the analysis that stems from it continues to put you in a position to win your league.

So, check out our wins! Hitters are covered this week (stats in most cases are HR-RBI-SB-BA); pitchers will be covered next week.

Jonathan Aranda: Settled into everyday 1B role before wrist fracture ended season in August. Disciplined approach supported xBA gain, although massive BA/xBA gap offers pause. GB%, ct% movement point to something more, though 2nd half sample didn't give power time to develop. Holding even some of those gains points to ... UP: 25 HR (Larson)
2025: 14-59-.316 in 370 AB
2026: 22-92-.274 in 580 AB

Randy Arozarena: Rebound season was product of free swingin' 2nd half and favorable HR/F surge. SB production bounced back due to career-best SB% alongside increased willingness to run after recovering from May hamstring injury. Maintaining theft rate well into 30s is a big ask, but solid power foundation evokes confidence for near-repeat performance. (Larson)
2025: 27-76-31-.238 in 613 AB
2026: 26-79-26-.281 in 572 AB

Drake Baldwin: Delivered double-digit returns in his rookie season last year. There's more upside here, too. His only weakness at the plate was his sub-optimal 6.5 launch angle. Even a marginal increase to his swing plane would make him a 20+ HR bat in 2026. (Nickrand)
2025: 19-80-.274 in 405 AB
2026: 25-79-.284 in 549 AB

Jake Bauers: Here's a guy with elite bb%, top-notch exit velocity, plus power, and ability to steal despite subpar Spd. But he is undercut by too many Ks and an inability to hit LHP. 2nd half ct% is encouraging, though it could easily be a small sample fluke. Not unreasonable to imagine 20/20 upside with enough PA; take an end-game flyer and dream. (Kruse)
2025: 7-28-8-.235 in 183 AB
2026: 26-86-11-.266 in 477 AB

Travis Bazzana: The rare top prospect playing predominantly 2B in the minors, Travis Bazzana could well have debuted in 2025. Injuries slowed him, probably delaying that arrival. In OBP leagues, gaudy walk percentages made him a positive ratio asset, but his expected batting average from a half season at Triple-A was .177. Bazzana will be one of the most sought after prospects in your dynasty league and should be at least a 20/20 type hitting in the middle of a young Guardians batting order. (Severe)
2026: 15-57-19-.245 with .335 OBP in 449 AB

Carson Benge: Benge appears poised to make a splash in 2026, as the Mets' brass has gone on the record saying the 19th overall pick of the 2024 draft will have a shot to make the Opening Day roster. The Oklahoma State product was a quick riser, ascending from High-A to Triple-A over the course of one season. Growing pains should be expected for the 22-year-old, as he did struggle vs Triple-A pitching, but he's on track to make a fantasy impact sooner rather than later. (Larson)
2026: 20-65-22-.282 in 595 AB

Alex Bregman: Half-season splits offer before-and-after snapshot of impact that quad strain (48 IL days) had on season. Prior to injury, posted career-high exit velocity, best HR/F since 2019, and was on 30+ HR pace; upon return, suffered worst production since injury-marred 2021. Mulligan seems appropriate, in which case... UP: 30 HR (Kruse)
2025: 18-62-.273 in 433 AB
2026: 28-93-.265 in 608 AB

Alec Burleson: A good LIMA batter to buy again in 2026 due to his combination of plate skills and high-upside hit tool. His batted ball components turned upper-tier in 2025, especially his exit velocity and swing plane: 91.0 mph EV, 15.2 LA, 7.3% Brl%. Among bats without a true breakout season among them, Burleson is one of the better speculations in 2026, as he's starting to develop a .300 BA, 30-HR ceiling. (Nickrand)
2025: 18-69-.290 in 497 AB
2026: 26-116-.279 in 605 AB

Jac Caglianone: Tore through minors like a wrecking ball only to hit MLB wall with unexpected thud. Part of the problem was too many grounders, part was simply bad luck on h% (17% in majors), but even amongst the wreckage, 2nd half Brl%, xPX stand out as positives. Looks ready to take sophomore step forward. (Kruse)
2025: 7-18-.157 in 210 AB
2026: 23-75-.289 in 512 AB

Dominic Canzone: Thrived in platoon role, mashing the ball with tolerable contact. xBA throws water on his .300 BA in MLB, and recent xBA history suggests the same. Even vL+ was deceiving—inflated by 35 h%, with only 43 PX. Still, power metrics are on the rise. Could be sneakily relevant if given opportunity. (Smith)
2025: 11-32-.300 in 243 AB
2026: 23-77-.264 in 477 AB

Nick Castellanos: Second half collapse lost him full-time PA in Sept as he battled through knee injury suffered in July. Knee may have helped exaggerate an otherwise slow, steady decline; xPX, HctX, exit velocity have all slipped since 2023. Might benefit from likely change of scenery, but poor defense, attitude create PA risk... DN: 300 PA (Smith)
2025: 17-72-.251 in 547 AB
2026:  4-20-.191 in 115 AB

Kody Clemens: Continued power growth in first extended opportunity, with xPX now in elite territory due to exit velocity spike. Strictly a platoon player, and 24 PX in 89 PA against LHP supports this usage. First-half xBA suggests that when average ct%, plus PX combine, BA has upward mobility. If he keeps earning more PA... UP: .250 BA, 25 HR (Smith)
2025: 19-50-.209 in 345 AB
2026: 27-81-.239 in 531 AB

Chase DeLauter: The knack with which the injury bug has hunted DeLauter borders on the comical. Yet there he was making his major league debut in last year’s playoffs, demonstrating the esteem in which he continues to be held within the organization. The sample sizes in the minors are small, but DeLauter has paired above-average power with a strong eye. Coming off hernia surgery, DeLauter did not even attempt a stolen base in those 34 Triple-A games, but if he has a healthy off-season, his running game could re-emerge in 2026. Even without it, he should be a good building block - if he can stay on the field. (Olson)
2026: 16-67-11-.287 in 495 AB

Ty France: Hot April eventually cooled as playing time waned, even after deadline trade. Skills hint he might not be done yet: xHR nearly doubled its surface counterpart; ct%, xBA say BA can still do some moderate lifting. Can't bank on 2021-22 renaissance, but a deep-league CI if he gets playing time? You could do worse. (Bloomfield)
2025: 7-52-.257 in 444 AB
2026: 21-72-.295 in 440 AB

Luis García Jr.: Garcia debuted young and has maintained a consistent approach – aggressive swinging and high contact leading to four straight years of decent batting averages. García is poor against lefties. Probably fortunately for fantasy managers, he is frequently benched against lefty starters. That hurts managers making weekly moves and valuing cumulative counting stats, but positive for ratios in daily moves leagues. García hits in the middle of a down Nats lineup and a year of 20 HR, 20 SB, and .280 AVG would be very possible in the next three years. The upside is capped, but García is a nice complementary piece on a winning fantasy roster. (Severe)
2025: 16-66-14-.252 in 488 AB
2026: 30-92-5-.277 in 516 AB

Hunter Goodman: Broke camp with starting catcher gig, played 39 more DH games to drive big-time PA total. Power skills (xPX, xHR/F) remained excellent, and while inflated h% in 1st half fell back to reality in 2nd half, xBA still supported much of the BA gains. Could push 30 HR again, so even with some BA pullback, he's a top-tier catching option. (Young)
2025: 31-91-.278 in 540 AB
2026: 41-88-.245 in 518 AB

Riley Greene: His production broke out in 2025. However, the risk for a pull-back is high here. His 7% bb% and 66% ct% last season were both the worst of his career. His average exit velocity has declined in each of the past two years: 91.6, 91.3, 89.9 mph EV. And he chased (31.2%) more than ever in 2025. The smart money is not to bet on a repeat. (Nickrand)
2025: 36-111-.258 in 600 AB
2026: 21-75-.280 in 511 AB

Konnor Griffin: Griffin's physical frame at 6’4”, 225 lb gives him a good foundation for growth, and his skills are outstanding. He has plus speed, plus power, plus defense, and the athleticism to thrive at his position. He is only 19, but he should be in AAA in 2026 and in the majors later that year. Whenever he debuts, he is likely to become a fixture for Pittsburgh and our dynasty and keeper teams. (Richards)
2026: 6-33-23-.272 in 312 AB

Trent Grisham: Where did THIS come from!? HR barrage wasn't a total product of short porch, per park-neutral xHR, and posted career-high Brl% and xPX. Oh, and ct% nudged up to drive passable BA. "Regress to what" is the question; track record of shaky xBA and mediocre QBaB can't be ignored. Take the under on a 30-HR encore. (Bloomfield)
2025: 34-74-.235 in 494 AB
2026: 18-59-.210 in 418 AB

Michael Harris II: Another year, more long stretches of nothing before strong finish tried to reel us back in. BA drop mostly a product of h% dip, as ct% held firm. 2nd half PX/xPX, Brl% back the late power surge. Little change in speed skills. Low bb%, issues vL cap his ceiling, but still a decent 20/20 bet with plus BA. (Bloomfield)
2025: 20-86-20-.249 in 611 AB
2026: 26-87-12-.294 in 591 AB

Heriberto Hernandez: Hernandez had, by all accounts, a pretty successful MLB debut, returning $7 in both R$ and 5x5. While nothing in his profile stands out, he does a lot of things well. He generated above-average power along with exceptional 133 Spd; problem is he has never utilized that speed at any level, and his 26 K% means that solid .266 BA he put up is prone to regression (.234 xBA). Considering the Marlins' thrifty ways, his age (25) and contract situation (pre-arbitration) could give him a PT edge for the next couple of seasons, and the skills are worth betting on to deliver profit as a depth option. (Larson)
2025: 10-45-1-.266 in 256 AB
2026: 25-67-13-.228 in 448 AB

Carter Jensen: Offensively-skilled backstop showcased double-plus bat speed and power potential with BA-friendly, up-the-middle approach. Can get passive with present whiff issues, but advanced batters eye bails him out. Brl% and BB% carry present profile, and not a base-clogger. Could be here to stay. (Blessing)
2025: 3-13-.300 in 60 AB
2026: 27-81-.239 in 527 AB

Kyle Karros: The case for Karros is simply “career .305 hitter in minors” plus “Rockies have every reason to play him” plus “Coors is still a good place to hit.” Karros didn’t do much in his debut late last year, but the 23% line drive rate is enough for a flyer on its own. (Murphy)
2025: 1-9-.226 in 137 AB
2026: 13-49-.253 in 411 AB

Luke Keaschall: Keaschall dealt with Tommy John surgery in 2024, broke a forearm in April, and then sprained his thumb on a slide in September, ending his season. Twins fans will be triggered by oft-injured star hitters, but fantasy managers should resist that urge. Keaschall will be a speed-first 2B. Power may not match up to the speed and contact (all the hard hit metrics were poor), but he is good a bet as any to keep hitting. (Severe)
2025: 4-28-14-.302 in 182 AB
2026: 10-52-20-.282 in 528 AB

Brooks Lee: He hasn’t shown us much in the majors yet, but at least has a couple of boxes checked: he makes contact at a good rate, he’s versatile in the field, and he plays for a team that is apparently operating with significant budget constraints. Oh, and he backs up perpetually-injured Royce Lewis. Playing time opportunity is there, bat to ball skill is there. One more piece to the puzzle and you’ve got something. (Murphy)
2025: 16-64-.238 in 484 AB
2026: 24-83-.253 in 586 AB

Daylen Lile: Quietly developed into a multi-category bat in the second half of his MLB debut in 2025. His underlying batted ball and power metrics didn't support it (88.9 mph EV, 5.2% Brl%, 92 xPX), but his ability to make consistent contact gives him a high floor. Even modest gains against lefty arms would allow Lile to take another step forward in 2026. (Nickrand)
2025: 9-41-8-.299 with in 321 AB
2026: 22-89-15-.246 in 602 AB

Manny Machado: Among the most reliable assets around, pairing unmatched durability with a bunch of skills that just oscillate within fairy narrow ranges. That makes him easy to project, with one caveat: the 2nd half combo of ct% slip and FB% spike hints at some selling out for power. Might just be noise, or might be leading edge of his decline phase. (Murphy)
2025: 27-95-14-.275 in 615 AB
2026: 30-91-5-.217 in 589 AB

Angel Martínez: Delivered doses of power and speed in 2025, but shaky plate skills and a likely reserve role have depressed his draft value (704 ADP). Nonetheless, Martinez's plate discipline was much better in 2024 and has been significantly better so far this spring (82% ct%). He'll also qualify at both 2B and OF in most leagues. (Nickrand)
2025: 11-45-.224 in 446 AB
2026: 18-62-.255 in 389 AB

Chase Meidroth: Playing in the obscurity of the 2025 White Sox, Meidroth has so far made the biggest impact of the prospects who came from the Red Sox in the Garrett Crochet trade. While Meidroth accumulated a few stolen bases, he lacks any indicators of future power. His strength will be in contact and plate discipline. As Meidroth matures and, presumably, the White Sox improve around him, the counting stats should improve. He should claim the role for multiple seasons, making him a strong candidate to put up a double-digit value season. (Severe)
2025: 5-23-14-.256 in 450 AB
2026: 16-63-4-.276 in 566 AB

Jackson Merrill: Trio of IL stints (hamstring, concussion, ankle) disrupted his season, particularly on the bases. Despite the significant dip in R$, skills didn't collapse. In fact, second-half QBaB, Brl%, xPX all were representative of 2024 breakout. A full-season recovery to that level is very much in play, and it shouldn't cost you full price to find out. (Murphy)
2024: 24-90-16-.292 in 593 AB
2025: 16-67-1-.264 in 440 AB
2026: 26-87-27-.255 in 613 AB

Colson Montgomery: He had a modest start to his major league career, earning just $3. While he struck out 33% of the time, he did draw walks 9% of the time, his xBA was almost 20 points higher than his BA, and the power is real. He has excellent range at SS and should stick there. He has elevated bat speed and barrel % and could hit 30 HR in a season. The strikeouts put his BA at risk, but the power alone could produce a $10 season. (Richards)
2025: 21-55-.239 in 255 AB
2026: 31-87-.197 in 568 AB

Gabriel Moreno: Moreno continues to develop with each season, but injuries have cost him substantial playing time in three consecutive seasons. There are signs beneath the surface (above-average ct% and bb%; improving contact quality) that he could have a little more HR potential to go along with the strong BA and OBP. The 26-year-old is a fine choice at his 174 ADP and is capable of a breakout season, if his health cooperates. (Pyron)
2025:  9-40-.285 in 277 AB
2026: 16-83-.311 in 473 AB

Nasim Nuñez: On his way to a completely forgettable season when he was recalled in Sept and caught fire (4 HR, .916 OPS in 43 PA). Don't mistake a fistful of sparklers for a fireworks display. He's fast, has a history of high walk totals in MiLB, and hit the ball harder in 2nd half. Think end game speed play, not Sept x 6. (de Leonardis)
2025: 4-13-9-.232 in 82 AB
2026: 1-37-49-.209 in 431 AB

Andy Pages: Fine followup to rookie season fueled by health, uptick vR and outstanding glove that kept him in the lineup every day. Held most of 1st half BA gains despite exit velocity downturn; launch angle kept HR coming, though xHR, xPX say it's a ceiling. Running game was a pleasant surprise. Something close to a repeat looks likely. (Thompson)
2025: 27-86-14-.272 in 581 AB
2026: 23-85-13-.274 in 511 AB

Joc Pederson: Endured a horrible 2025 season by any measure. Turns out the primary culprit was extreme bad luck with batted balls. His 20% h% was 10 points lower than his combined hit rate from 2022-2024. He'll be very cheap in 2026 drafts, giving him some significant profit potential if you need a late DH add. (Nickrand)
2025: 9-26-.181 in 265 AB
2026: 26-53-.235 in 374 AB

Ben Rice: Power promise had long been legitimate, but it was unexpected ct%, HctX, exit velocity gains that fueled breakout season. Soaring 2nd half contact skills brought BA along for the ride, as sudden gains vL kept him in most-of-the time PA. Retrenchment is possible, but a worthy catcher option with... UP: .275 BA, 35 HR. (Thompson)
2025: 26-65-.255 in 467 AB
2026: 41-97-.264 in 573 AB

Casey Schmitt: Missed six weeks with oblique, wrist issues; was lineup staple for most of 2nd half. QBaB, Brl% remained above-average, while xBA improvement with more line drives hints at untapped BA upside. Ingredients are here for more prominent role; ability to play every IF spot boosts paths to regular PT, which could lead to... UP: 20 HR (Williams)
2025: 12-40-.237 in 312 AB
2026: 21-55-.271 in 387 AB (season-ending injury July 28)

Kyle Schwarber: Continued improvement vL, recovery of FB% drove career-best R$ and previously unimagined xBA. Power metrics remained elite, though some regression likely given PX/xPX gap; high-water FB% in second half did a number on his h%. Full repeat is unlikely, but a safe power foundation that's aging like fine wine. (Williams)
2025: 56-132-.240 in 604 AB
2026: 45-97-.232 in 581 AB

George Springer: Be prepared to pony up after his most homers and RBI since 2019 and career-best BA. If he were 10 years younger, batted-ball gains and growing pitch recognition would make him a safe $30 investment. At age 36, best to side with regression, particularly with likely hit-rate decline and mediocre QBaB history. (Nickrand)
2025: 32-84-.309 in 498 AB
2026: 15-54-.249 in 462 AB

Sal Stewart: Entered 2025 as a solid prospect with premium plate discipline and questionable pop. The former continued to hold true (84% ct%), while his power began to emerge (20 HR, .907 OPS in 494 PA). Stewart's batted ball quality at Triple-A validated those results: 93.1 mph EV, 14.0 LA, 21.0% Brl%. Stewart will carry some real breakout appeal in 2026. (Nickrand)
2025: 5-8-0-.255 in 55 AB
2026: 32-111-15-.263 in 623 AB

Trevor Story: There's a good chance he was on a team in your league that finished in the money, since his 253 ADP turned into a $30 return. Underlying skills were largely supportive, save for uncharacteristic SB%. Problem is, last back-to-back 500+ PA seasons were in 2018-2019, so don't bid without a rabbit's foot in hand. (Nickrand)
2025: 25-96-31-.263 in 612 AB
2026: 5-29-5-.235 in 251 AB

Fernando Tatis Jr.: It’s quite surprising to see Tatis enter May without a HR. The skills aren’t that different - he’s still making lots of hard contact. However, his launch angle has crashed to a career low 3.2 degrees (9.4 in 2025); an unfortunate HR/F has also been a factor. The wheels are still in fine shape and he has shown increased activity on the basepaths in the early going, putting him on track for another 30 SB campaign. As long as there isn’t a hidden health issue, he's a good bet to restore something close to his typical HR pace over the remainder of the season. (Pyron)
2025: 25-71-32-.268 in 594 AB
2026: 25-83-38-.289 in 626 AB

Miguel Vargas: Quietly took a big step forward in 2025. It was fueled by a career-best 89% ct% + bb%, along with an 89.7 mph EV that was +3 mph from his prior two seasons. Vargas is a pre-peak bat who doesn't chase much (21.6% Chase Rate). Those ingredients give him real breakout potential in 2026 and make him an excellent LIMA target given his moderate market price (293 ADP). (Nickrand)
2025: 16-60-.234 in 504 AB
2026: 33-93-22-.250 in 588 AB

Jordan Walker: Spent some time at Driveline in the offseason to retool his swing. His ability to hit the ball hard isn't in question, but he hasn't shown the ability to loft it consistently. Most fantasy managers have moved on from this former top prospect (420 ADP). At age 23, he's a premium post-hype play. (Nickrand) 
2025: 6-41-10-.215 in 363 AB
2026: 29-102-22-.269 in 609 AB

JJ Wetherholt: Will anything slow him down? The Cardinals’ 1st-round pick in 2024 blew through AA and AAA last year while slashing a combined .306/.421/.510. Wetherholt looks to be a source of BA and OBP, while also having enough power in his game to reach 20 HR and 20 SB. He has the defensive skills to man SS, 2B, or 3B if the team’s needs lean more that way while keeping Masyn Winn at SS. (Richards)
2026: 17-51-14-.242 in 537 AB

Jacob Wilson: Had a great rookie season, hitting for a high average and more power than his pedigree suggested. His elite level of contact (92% ct%) was fully backed by his sterling 4.1% SwK%, both of which give him a high BA floor. But his total lack of exit velocity (84.6 mph EV) and barrels (2.2% Brl%) points to a production pull-back, particularly with his high 32.1% Chase Rate. (Nickrand)
2025: 13-63-.311 in 486 AB
2026: 7-37-.266 in 320 AB

Christian Yelich: Health cooperated, and it resulted in his best season since 2019. But heed the warning signs: (1) worst Eye of his career; (2) first-ever sub-100 HctX; (3) underlying power skills no better than recent seasons; (4) at age where Spd slippage may continue. Should remain productive, but don't bid on a repeat. (Truesdell)
2025: 29-103-16-.264 in 573 AB
2026: 12-59-11-.235 in 442 AB

Cole Young: Top-100 prospect struggled in MLB debut, but some seeds are here. Consistent contact and fine walk rate carried up to majors, boding well for on-base abilities going forward. Will need to bulk up, but there's time for that. Eventually profiles as a solid, if unspectacular, middle infielder. (Truesdell)
2025: 4-24-.211 in 223 AB
2026: 17-66-.246 in 577 AB

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