THE BIG HURT: Beyond health scores, 2019 edition

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BaseballHQ.com health scores are a very good approximation of player injury risk. However, they are backward-looking and based primarily on days spent on the DL in previous seasons. While this is actually a very good measure of future risk, they sometimes don't fully incorporate the subtleties of unique injuries and elevated risks that haven't been reflected in DL stays. They also sometimes overstate risk based on fluke injuries that aren't likely to repeat.

We will not discuss obvious risks—we assume you understand that players over 35 are inherently risky, for example. As per our normal practice, we won't spend time on players recovering from Tommy John surgery unless there's something unusual about their...

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