ROTISSERIE: Reliability Plus—Looking ahead at consistency

As most readers know, the Baseball Forecaster and BaseballHQ.com player stats have included a “Reliability” rating over the last several years. It is a composite measure that scores all players on three important elements of fantasy value: Health, Playing Time/Experience and Consistency. Every player is assigned a grade between “A” and “F” for each element based on historic data for the past three to five years.

Reliability has become a key part of many BHQ fantasy strategies including both the Portfolio3 plan and Mayberry Method. While a complete definition can be found in the BHQ education/glossary section, some recent research has begun to highlight the difficulty in predicting future top-tier Reliability by looking only at previous...

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