ROTISSERIE: Recency bias and the belief in the law of small numbers

A main theme this year at BaseballHQ.com is to raise awareness of a recency bias often prevalent when we attempt to forecast future performance. In essence, "recency bias" means we use the most recent past to guide our choices. Thoughts and information that come to mind first are quite salient and often seen as most important.

In everyday life, judgments based on recency can be an adaptive and efficient way to make choices. However, such judgments can sometimes lead us astray. This article will examine how recency-based thinking can potentially lead to imprudent early season managerial decisions.

Perceptions of chance and the law of small numbers

In general, people tend to expect a sample drawn from a particular population to be...

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