ROTISSERIE: Quantifying Risk - Building Your Risk Budget

[Baseball HQ founder Ron Shandler returns for this 3-part series. Since his contract here with USA Today ended in 2015, he’s free-lanced for ESPN.com and The Athletic, and continues the fanalytic conversation at BABSbaseball.com.]

Part 1: The challenge we face
Part 2: The risk costs for every player.

In auction drafts, we are used to counting down our dollars from $260 to $0, careful to have enough funds to buy the players we want. The value we place on those players is correlated with the production we expect them to provide to our team.

However, what we also need to be doing is deciding how much risk we are willing to shoulder in constructing this roster. While some vague essence of risk is baked into the player’s auction value or...

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