ROTISSERIE: Expectations and Mike Trout

Mike Trout (OF, LAA) is no longer the number one pick.

Yeah, I said it. Take a look at his trends:

Year  HR  RBI  SB  R$  hr/f  xPX
====  ==  ===  ==  ==  ====  ===
2012  30   83  49  45   22%  113
2013  27   97  33  41   16%  133
2014  36  111  16  38   18%  151
2015  41   90  11  33   25%  154

Yes, home runs have been going up; we’ll get to that in a second. However, stolen bases are showing a sharp decline (both Spd and RSpd have declined, though not as precipitously). RBIs are somewhat random. But his 5x5 value has declined for three straight years (about the HR: while his xPX is increasing, his 25% hr/f in 2015 doesn’t match; expect a decline).

So he’s no longer the number one pick. But that’s not the point of this article. In...

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