(*) ROTISSERIE: Adjusting Mayberry Scores can Improve Roster Decisions
Mar 2 2012
BaseballHQ.com offers readers a lot of tools and concepts for drafting and auctions. We also look for ways to combine these tools to offer still other ways of looking at the player pools, valuations, and roster management.
For example, Ron Shandler introduced the “Mayberry Method” in 2010. As he put it at the time, one impetus was to “embrace imprecision” in forecasting models and allow fantasy owners to slot batters in ranges of likely outcomes for Power (PX), Speed (Spd), Expected Batting Average (xBA) and Playing Time (PT—AB for hitters, IP for pitchers), each on a simple scale of 0-5.
Mayberry also has a score total, arrived at by totaling the four component scores and then multiplying by PT. PT is counted twice because it is used as a “force multiplier.”
Armed with this simplified scoring system, it should be an easy matter to sort the batter universe by MM Score, giving us an easy top-to-bottom list of the most valuable players for our drafts or auctions. (Such a list might seem more useful in drafts, but in fact having a sense of actual player value allows the owner at auction to ignore the projected dollar values in favor of matching player productive value to the “facts on the ground” at the auction table—who else is bidding, how much budget room bidders have, positional needs, and so on.)
In his earlier writing about his "Portfolio 3 Plan,” Shandler was also interested in the importance of reliability, especially in the early rounds of straight drafts or top-dollar auction prices. His idea, which has proved sound, is that owners simply can’t afford to have a top player blow up, because that essentially destroys a team’s competitiveness. We can tolerate a $7 David DeJesus having an off year, but if a $42 Carl Crawford stinks, we’re dead.
So the Mayberry Method scoring also included letter grades (A,B,C,D, and F) for the three key components of reliability: Health, Experience and Consistency.
This really helps make decisions. If you were deciding between, say, two $20-ish projected shortstops like Hanley Ramírez and Starlin Castro, you’d note their Mayberry scores:
Castro 2435 ACA 70 Ramirez 3235 CBC 65
While the two batters are identical for BA and PT, Castro has a good edge in Speed but Ramirez in Power. That might matter to you.
More importantly, perhaps, you’d note that BHQ, at least, considers Ramirez to be quite a bit riskier, with “C” grades for Health and Consistency (compared to Castro’s “A” grades), and only a one-grade countervailing benefit in Experience.
Looking at the Mayberry batter pool
Let’s sort the batter pool and look at the top 45 batters plus ties, which would take us through three-plus rounds of straight draft and the greater share of auction value:
|--Mayberry--|
Rk Batter Pos Code Score
== ====== === ======== =====
1 Braun,Ryan 7 4355 AAC 85
2 Reyes,Jose 6 3545 FCC 85
3 Cabrera,Miguel 3 5155 AAB 80
4 Cano,Robinson 4 4255 AAB 80
5 Tulowitzki,Troy 6 4255 BAA 80
6 Votto,Joey 3 5155 AAB 80
7 Granderson,Curtis 7 5425 BAB 80
8 Hamilton,Josh 7 4255 BBF 80
9 Victorino,Shane 7 3445 BAB 80
10 Hart,Corey 7 4345 BBB 80
11 Pence,Hunter 7 4345 AAB 80
12 Stanton,Mike 7 5335 ABC 80
13 Lawrie,Brett 5 4525 ADF 80
14 Beltran,Carlos 7 4255 FCD 80
15 Fowler,Dexter 7 4525 BBA 80
16 Pujols,Albert 3 4155 AAC 75
17 Kemp,Matt 7 4335 AAF 75
18 Gonzalez,Carlos 7 4245 BBC 75
19 Ellsbury,Jacoby 7 3345 FBF 75
20 Bautista,Jose 75 5235 AAF 75
21 Holliday,Matt 7 4155 AAA 75
22 Upton,Justin 7 4335 BAB 75
23 Sandoval,Pablo 5 4155 BAF 75
24 McCutchen,Andrew 7 4335 AAA 75
25 Kendrick,Howie 47 3345 BBB 75
26 Napoli,Mike 23 5145 BCF 75
27 Bourjos,Peter 7 3525 ABC 75
28 Fielder,Prince 3 4055 AAD 70
29 Gonzalez,Adrian 3 4145 AAB 70
30 Pedroia,Dustin 4 2345 CAA 70
31 Kinsler,Ian 4 4235 CAA 70
32 Longoria,Evan 5 4145 BAA 70
33 Bourn,Michael 7 1535 AAB 70
34 Young,Michael 53 2345 AAC 70
35 Beltre,Adrian 5 4145 CBD 70
36 Crawford,Carl 7 3335 BAC 70
37 Cuddyer,Michael 73 3245 BAB 70
38 Phillips,Brandon 4 3245 AAA 70
39 Castro,Starlin 6 2435 ACA 70
40 Youkilis,Kevin 5 4235 CBB 70
41 Jeter,Derek 6 1445 BAC 70
42 Ortiz,David 0 4145 BAB 70
43 Ramirez,Aramis 5 4145 BBD 70
44 Zobrist,Ben 47 4235 BAF 70
45 Utley,Chase 4 3335 DBB 70
46 Francoeur,Jeff 7 4235 AAC 70
47 Weeks,Rickie 4 4235 FBA 70
48 Molina,Yadier 2 3155 ABC 70
49 Craig,Allen 7 4145 CDC 70
50 Kipnis,Jason 4 4235 AFA 70
51 Morrison,Logan 7 4235 ACA 70
52 Rolen,Scott 5 3245 FCC 70
53 Duda,Lucas 37 4235 ACB 70
54 Aley,Dustin 4 2525 ACB 70
55 Jones,Chipper 5 4145 CBA 70
56 LaHair,Bryan 7 5225 ABB 70
Not a bad list, though probably a little controversial with Albert Pujols buried below Brett Lawrie and Carlos Beltrán because of their higher Spd scores, and other anomalies sure to catch the eye of the discerning reader.
We instinctively know that Pujols is a first-rounder, and that Lawrie and Beltran (and José Reyes, for that matter) are not. Why? Because we perceive Pujols as a much surer bet. In other words, we want to avoid risk in the early rounds, and Lawrie, a rookie, and Beltran, a longtime injury bug, are very risky batters. So is Reyes, with his checkered health. And note that all three of these batters have “F” reliability ratings, Lawrie for Consistency (and a “D” for Experience, which could have been an “F”), and Beltran and Reyes for Health.
Adjusting for Reliability
So what if we adjusted the overall Mayberry score to take those Reliability scores into account? We did just that. Using a spreadsheet, we broke the Mayberry scores out into separate digits, and then after some trial-and-error, assigned bonuses or penalties for the letter grades:
Grade Bonus ===== ===== A +10% B + 5% C 0% D -10% F -20%
The bonuses were multiplied together, not applied cumulatively. So an “AAA” reliability score would give the batter a +33% bonus (1.1 x 1.1 x 1.1), a “BBB” would be +16%; all the way down to an “FFF,” which would mean a -49% penalty. We then recalculated the batter pool:
Adj Un |-Mayberry-| |--Adjust-| Rk Rk Chg Batter Pos Code Score Bonus Score === === === ====== === ============ ===== ===== 1 1 0 Braun,Ryan 7 4355 AAC 85 +21% 103 2 3 +1 Cabrera,Miguel 3 5155 AAB 80 +27% 102 3 4 +1 Cano,Robinson 4 4255 AAB 80 +27% 102 4 5 +1 Tulowitzki,Troy 6 4255 BAA 80 +27% 102 5 6 +1 Votto,Joey 3 5155 AAB 80 +27% 102 6 11 +5 Pence,Hunter 7 4345 AAB 80 +27% 102 7 21 +14 Holliday,Matt 7 4155 AAA 75 +33% 100 8 24 +16 McCutchen,Andrew 7 4335 AAA 75 +33% 100 9 7 -2 Granderson,Curtis 7 5425 BAB 80 +21% 97 10 9 -1 Victorino,Shane 7 3445 BAB 80 +21% 97 11 15 +4 Fowler,Dexter 7 4525 BBA 80 +21% 97 12 10 -2 Hart,Corey 7 4345 BBB 80 +16% 93 13 38 +25 Phillips,Brandon 4 3245 AAA 70 +33% 93 14 12 -2 Stanton,Mike 7 5335 ABC 80 +16% 92 15 16 +1 Pujols,Albert 3 4155 AAC 75 +21% 91 16 22 +6 Upton,Justin 7 4335 BAB 75 +21% 91 17 29 +12 Gonzalez,Adrian 3 4145 AAB 70 +27% 89 18 32 +14 Longoria,Evan 5 4145 BAA 70 +27% 89 19 33 +14 Bourn,Michael 7 1535 AAB 70 +27% 89 20 25 +5 Kendrick,Howie 47 3345 BBB 75 +16% 87 21 27 +6 Bourjos,Peter 7 3525 ABC 75 +16% 87 22 70 +48 Ramirez,Alexei 6 2335 AAA 65 +33% 87 23 30 +7 Pedroia,Dustin 4 2345 CAA 70 +21% 85 24 31 +7 Kinsler,Ian 4 4235 CAA 70 +21% 85 25 34 +9 Young,Michael 53 2345 AAC 70 +21% 85 26 37 +11 Cuddyer,Michael 73 3245 BAB 70 +21% 85 27 39 +12 Castro,Starlin 6 2435 ACA 70 +21% 85 28 42 +14 Ortiz,David 0 4145 BAB 70 +21% 85 29 46 +17 Francoeur,Jeff 7 4235 AAC 70 +21% 85 30 51 +21 Morrison,Logan 7 4235 ACA 70 +21% 85 31 56 +25 LaHair,Bryan 7 5225 ABB 70 +21% 85 32 18 -14 Gonzalez,Carlos 7 4245 BBC 75 +10% 83 33 58 +25 Teixeira,Mark 3 4135 AAB 65 +27% 83 34 59 +25 Jones,Adam 7 3235 BAA 65 +27% 83 35 81 +46 Young,Chris 7 4315 AAB 65 +27% 83 36 91 +55 Escobar,Alcides 6 1525 ABA 65 +27% 83 37 36 -1 Crawford,Carl 7 3335 BAC 70 +16% 81 38 41 +3 Jeter,Derek 6 1445 BAC 70 +16% 81 39 48 +9 Molina,Yadier 2 3155 ABC 70 +16% 81 40 53 +13 Duda,Lucas 37 4235 ACB 70 +16% 81 41 54 +13 Ackley,Dustin 4 2525 ACB 70 +16% 81 42 55 +13 Jones,Chipper 5 4145 CBA 70 +16% 81 43 102 +59 Ethier,Andre 7 3135 AAA 60 +33% 80 44 104 +60 Upton,B J 7 3405 AAA 60 +33% 80 45 107 +62 Markakis,Nick 7 2235 AAA 60 +33% 80 46 114 +68 Swisher,Nick 7 4125 AAA 60 +33% 80 47 64 +17 Gardner,Brett 7 1525 ABB 65 +21% 79 48 76 +28 Howard,Ryan 3 5125 BAB 65 +21% 79 49 79 +30 Wieters,Matt 2 4135 ABB 65 +21% 79 50 87 +37 Stubbs,Drew 7 3505 AAC 65 +21% 79 51 88 +37 Bonifacio,Emil 675 1525 ABB 65 +21% 79 52 92 +40 Ibanez,Raul 7 4135 AAC 65 +21% 79 53 96 +43 Espinosa,Danny 4 4315 ACA 65 +21% 79 54 98 +44 Barney,Darwin 4 1435 ABB 65 +21% 79 55 40 -15 Youkilis,Kevin 5 4235 CBB 70 +10% 77 56 28 -28 Fielder,Prince 3 4055 AAD 70 + 9% 76 57 101 +44 Andrus,Elvis 6 1335 AAB 60 +27% 76 58 112 +54 Santana,Carlos 23 4125 ABA 60 +27% 76 59 121 +62 Jackson,Austin 7 2505 AAB 60 +27% 76 60 122 +62 McCann,Brian 2 4125 ABA 60 +27% 76
Adjusting for risk, Reyes falls off the list, and Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Canó, Troy Tulowitzki and Joey Votto step up a place each. Dexter Fowler, already a tremendous bargain if we believe current ADPs, looks even better, climbing to 11th overall. And several players make huge leaps—Matt Holliday and Andrew McCutchen climb from the 20s into the top 10, and Brandon Phillips jumps 25 full places on the basis of solid skills plus “AAA” reliability.
Of course, we wouldn’t necessarily take Holliday, McCutchen or Phillips that high, if we suspected from ADPs and/or knowledge of competitors that any of them would be available two rounds later or for $10 less. But we might well want to go the extra buck or nab a guy a round early, knowing that he stands a top chance of delivering the goods.
We might also want to look at other batters who made the Adjusted Mayberry list who weren’t on the unadjusted list:
Adj Un |-Mayberry-| |--Adjust-| Rk Rk Chg Batter Pos Code Score Bonus Score === === === ====== === ============ ===== ===== 22 70 +48 Ramirez,Alexei 6 2335 AAA 65 +33% 87 36 91 +55 Escobar,Alcides 6 1525 ABA 65 +27% 83 35 81 +46 Young,Chris 7 4315 AAB 65 +27% 83 33 58 +25 Teixeira,Mark 3 4135 AAB 65 +27% 83 34 59 +25 Jones,Adam 7 3235 BAA 65 +27% 83 46 114 +68 Swisher,Nick 7 4125 AAA 60 +33% 80 45 107 +62 Markakis,Nick 7 2235 AAA 60 +33% 80 44 104 +60 Upton,B J 7 3405 AAA 60 +33% 80 43 102 +59 Ethier,Andre 7 3135 AAA 60 +33% 80 54 98 +44 Barney,Darwin 4 1435 ABB 65 +21% 79 53 96 +43 Espinosa,Danny 4 4315 ACA 65 +21% 79 52 92 +40 Ibanez,Raul 7 4135 AAC 65 +21% 79 50 87 +37 Stubbs,Drew 7 3505 AAC 65 +21% 79 51 88 +37 Bonifacio,Emil 567 1525 ABB 65 +21% 79 49 79 +30 Wieters,Matt 2 4135 ABB 65 +21% 79 48 76 +28 Howard,Ryan 3 5125 BAB 65 +21% 79 47 64 +17 Gardner,Brett 7 1525 ABB 65 +21% 79
While many of these batters are not top-tier, they are nonetheless much less risky than batters with similar skills, and therefore inherently more valuable. Among catchers, for instance, BAL backstop Matt Wieters is the 79th-ranked batter overall on the unadjusted list. But giving him points for his ABB reliability boosts him nearly 30 places, and takes him past such seeming prize catchers as Miguel Montero and Mike Napoli.
Other big gainers and decliners
Other batters had huge reliability-based jumps in score but did not make the list of top batters: Kurt Suzuki (C, OAK +80 places), James Loney (1B, LA, +73), Danny Valencia (3B, MIN, +69), Billy Butler (DH, KC, +62) and Garret Jones, (1B/OF, PIT, +60) all jumped 60 spots or more.
And we would be remiss if we didn’t show the big decliners based on reliability adjustments:
Adj Un |-Mayberry-| |--Adjust-| Rk Rk Chg Batter Pos Code Score Bonus Score === === === ====== === ============ ===== ===== 184 19 -165 Ellsbury,Jacoby 7 3345 FBF 75 -33% 50 149 14 -135 Beltran,Carlos 7 4255 FCD 80 -28% 58 202 86 -116 Murphy,Daniel 354 2245 FDD 65 -35% 42 190 75 -115 Davis,Ike 3 4225 FDC 65 -28% 47 192 80 -112 Cespedes,Yoenis 7 2245 AFF 65 -30% 46 123 13 -110 Lawrie,Brett 5 4525 ADF 80 -21% 63 158 52 -106 Rolen,Scott 5 3245 FCC 70 -20% 56 124 26 -98 Napoli,Mike 23 5145 BCF 75 -16% 63 204 109 -95 Goldschmidt,Paul 3 4125 AFF 60 -30% 42 261 167 -94 Lowrie,Jed 65 2405 FFF 55 -49% 28 95 2 -93 Reyes,Jose 6 3545 FCC 85 -20% 68 143 65 -78 Morse,Michael 37 4135 DCC 65 -10% 59 205 127 -78 Altuve,Jose 4 1335 AFF 60 -30% 42 144 68 -76 Cruz,Nelson 7 4135 DCC 65 -10% 59 83 8 -75 Hamilton,Josh 7 4255 BBF 80 -12% 71 120 49 -71 Craig,Allen 7 4145 CDC 70 -10% 63 104 35 -69 Beltre,Adrian 5 4145 CBD 70 - 5% 66 112 44 -68 Zobrist,Ben 47 4235 BAF 70 - 8% 65 125 57 -68 Hosmer,Eric 3 2245 AFA 65 - 3% 63 90 23 -67 Sandoval,Pablo 5 4155 BAF 75 - 8% 69
Some big names here, and some relatively well-known batters who will be sought after at draft. It might be worth letting someone else find them.
Conclusion
The simplicity of the coding and the overall score make adjusting Mayberry easy—another advantage of the Method. For instance, we could also award bonuses and penalties based on positions, to adjust for scarcity. We could add 10% to catchers, subtract 5% from OFs, do something between for scarce IFs. Of course, no formulas (tweaked or otherwise), projections, or applied expertise can or should substitute for your own thinking. Depending on your own risk tolerance, for instance, you might be much more forgiving of low “Consistency” grades and harsher about “Health” grades. You might be feeling more positive about an untried import like Yoenis Céspedes, whose legitimate “AFF” reliability score sinks his Mayberry by 30%.
In his recent essay on 2012 Mayberry target players, Shandler wrote:
“The reliability grades of both (Brett) Lawrie (lack of experience) and (Carlos) Beltran (health history) would make me reluctant to draft them too high. (Corey) Hart and (Hunter) Pence (both surprisingly high Mayberry players) are much more interesting...”
What Shandler was doing was informally adjusting his list by looking at batters’ reliability scores. It’s no great leap to formally adjust those scores, to quantify batter reliability. In fact, it seems like a natural next step.
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