Oh yeah—held on to win NL-LABR on the (extra) last day doubleheader between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. That victory was as sweet as the back-to-back Tout Wars (AL) in 2022 and 2023. Skill? Maybe 10%—15% at most; everyone in these leagues can play. It is more a battle of attrition after a very early auction (March 1!) and then health luck, falling into players on hot streaks or unexpected playing time, FAAB buys that worked, all balled into what can be a very long and unforgiving season.
So excuse me for celebrating (a little) when it comes together.
For 2025, I know the target is on me and not Derek Carty for a change. What did I do right and what will I need to do now?
What I did in 2024: I used a spread-the-risk offense and that worked great because I maximized PAs vis-a-vis everyone else and it carried me to a top offense.
How can I do that again in 2025: Spread the risk again—and importantly, avoid injuries again. That injury-avoidance is key, and in leagues like this, there isn't enough depth of the offensive player pool to recover from injuries. Two things (besides spreading the risk) can help: 1) spending a little bit more on offense than the other teams; and 2) cover every offensive position with at least two players using the CI slot, MI slot, UT slot and players with multiple-position eligibility. All basic things, all things everyone tries to do. Use your budget to make sure you do it. I will try to do it with $5 less this year.
Pitching: I take risks in the pitching every year. I underpay, I grab guys who do get hurt but don't hurt my ERA/WHIP. I try to straddle the minimum innings requirements. I go for skills (K%, K%-BB%, HR/9 and lower xERA and WHIP) without regard for wins and strikeouts. I get a solid closer and try to speculate to add a second guy to grab saves. And, I am ruthless in churn during the season on pitchers to try to add performers. It worked in 2024—but sometimes it fails spectacularly and I am scrambling for innings (often bad bad innings).
2025 plan: Up my spend on pitching from $60 to 65 to capture one quality pitcher that I should be able to rely on for more innings, wins, strikeouts, without harming ERA/WHIP. We shall see if I can succeed in this.
Here is what the budget looks like going in:
C (2): $29
COR (3): $46
MIF (3): $45
OF 1-3: $50
OF 4-5, DH: $25
SP 1-3: $27
SP 4-7: $19
RP (2): $19
So that was the plan; let's see how it went.
c | William Contreras (MIL) | $25 |
c | Carson Kelly (CHC) | $1 |
1b | Luis Arraez (1b/2b) (SD) | $21 |
3b | Eugenio Suárez (ARI) | $17 |
ci | Alec Bohm (PHI) | $18 |
2b | Xander Bogaerts (2b/ss) (SD) | $19 |
ss | Dansby Swanson (CHC) | $19 |
mi | Hyeseong Kim (LA) | $7 |
of | Nolan Jones (COL) | $14 |
of | Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | $13 |
of | Nick Castellanos (PHI) | $18 |
of | Lourdes Gurriel (ARI) | $16 |
of | Michael Conforto (LA) | $9 |
ut | Max Muncy (LA) | $11 |
That is the good news. Was able to maximize PAs, get position flexibility, plenty of counting stats, strong batting average. I could use a few steals, but expect I will get those in-season. But this is a lopsided team. Not a big problem with ability to make trades and FAABs, but there is work to do on the pitching side as I drifted back towards my typically offense spend of $200 ($208).
Here is the bad news:
p | Nick Pivetta (SD) | $13 |
p | Yu Darvish (SD) | $9 |
p | Dustin May (LA) | $3 |
p | Edward Cabrera (MIA) | $2 |
p | Tony Gonsolin (LA) | $2 |
p | DJ Herz (WAS) | $3 |
p | Tony Santillan (CIN) | $1 |
p | Camilo Doval (SF) | $1 |
p | Ryan Walker (SF) | $18 |
Ryan Walker (RHP, SF) will be fine as a closer. Everyone else is just chasing cheap upside. Nick Pivetta (RHP, SD) has always had better metrics than results. Yu Darvish (RHP, SD) has been innings-challenged of late, but skills are pretty much intact. Dustin May (RHP, LA) and Tony Gonsolin (RHP, LA) are back from injury, but at the whims of the Los Angeles Dodgers talent crunch for innings and starts. Edward Cabrera (RHP, MIA) has not shown much when healthy, which isn't often enough. DJ Herz (RHP, WAS) had a nice second half. Camilo Doval (RHP, SF) is a backstop to Walker. Tony Santillan (RHP, CIN) is a dark horse for saves for the Cincinnati Reds if Alexis Díaz (RHP, CIN) finally has his results match his weaker skills. Plenty of work to do here.
Lest I forget, we also do a straight draft reserve round of six players. Here are mine:
P | Ben Brown (CHC) | Res |
P | Trevor Williams (WAS) | Res |
1B | Bryce Eldridge (SF) | Res |
P | Adrian Morejon (SD) | Res |
2B/OF | Adam Frazier (PIT) | Res |
P | Nick Mears (MIL) | Res |
Ben Brown (RHP, CHC) has some upside potential but has to find his way onto the Chicago Cubs roster first. Trevor Williams (RHP, WAS) is a backstop for innings when active pitchers are inactive. Bryce Eldridge (1B, SF) is a speculation. If the San Francisco Giants use him, it adds a lot of flexibility to the offense and opens up trade options. Adrian Morejon (LHP, SD) is a high-quality reliever who could vulture some wins and saves. Adam Frazier (2B, PIT) is in a crowded Pittsburgh Pirates infield, but he has had hot streaks before and he has outfield eligibility as well. Nick Mears (RHP, MIL) is Plan C for the Milwaukee Brewers pen with good skills. No one is killing it with reserve picks, but sometimes, you get lucky.
I am going to need luck this year to hang around with the leaders, I expect. I certainly used luck to fuel last year's win—why should this year be any different?
Find me on Blue Sky @dougdennis.bsky.social and let me know how I did.