The Portfolio3 Plan, part 1

Optimal draft strategy involves integrating the elements of expected player performance, risk and market conditions. For well over a decade now, I have been writing about different elements of this process, trying to get a handle on the best way to win our leagues.

The first true breakthrough was the LIMA Plan. This has been the foundation for our approach to player performance since 1998. LIMA teaches us to focus on skills, not stats, often to the exclusion of roles. By now, nobody who has been a regular reader of my work should feel skittish about drafting a pitcher with a 5.00 ERA if his peripherals are solid. Neither should you be targeting .300 hitters if their contact rates are under 75%.

But it's not all about skill. If it...

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