FANALYTICS: Drafting for a May league

Last year, I wrote about how our fantasy forecasting efforts focus on two somewhat-unrelated elements—skill and playing time. Skill is best projected in the longest time horizon available. Playing time is best projected in the shortest time horizon available.

In traditional full-season leagues, that means we can get a good read on skill but our playing time projections tend to be pretty far off-the-mark for a good percentage of the player pool.

Conversely, the currently popular daily games offer us the chance to be dead-on with our playing time projections, but skills are a near crapshoot.

Finding the optimal balance requires determining the optimal time period in which to conduct a league. Basically, playing the game in more...

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