FANALYTICS: 7th Annual Longshot Caucus

Nobody expected A.J. Pierzynski to hit 27 HRs in 2012. That's because everyone came into last season with a set of preconceptions about what the former White Sox catcher was capable of doing. Last year at this time, you would have been hard-pressed to find a source that projected him for even 10 HRs, let alone 170% more.

That's where we run into trouble every year, grounding future expectations in past realities. And so, we are blindsided by the surprises. Last year becomes the starting point for this year, and everything that happens is grounded in 2012. But 2013 is not an extension of 2012. It's a new beginning.

If we look at each season as a blank slate, we immediately open up more possibilities. If we start the year completely...

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