STARTERS: Swinging Strike Rates
Jan 7 2013
Our model of forecasting player performance is reliant upon looking beneath surface stats. We do this by ignoring things like wins and ERA. Instead, we focus on the skills that drive those results, since they are more under a player's control than surface stats.
When it comes to starting pitchers, we put a heavy emphasis on skills like dominance (K/9) rate, command (K/BB) ratio, and groundball (GB%) rate. SP have direct influence on those skills, whereas team offense, defense, and bullpen support--factors that are outside of a SP's control--have a big say in determining a SP's win-loss record and ERA. In addition, strong skills have been shown to be correlated with good surface stats like ERA and wins.
An emerging indicator that should...
Almost!
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