STARTERS: Expected Ctl, Dom surgers and faders
Aug 7 2016
When forecasting future changes in SP performance, one effective forward-looking method is to compare strikeout and walk levels with command sub-indicators like swinging strike rate and ball percentage.
Our 2013 research on swinging strike rates (SwK%) showed that SwK% has a strong link with dominance rate (K/9).
We can extrapolate a SP's expected Dom by looking at the correlation between SwK% level and Dom:
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xDom Ranges by SwK% Level ------xDom by Percentile---- SwK% Range 10th 25th 50th 75th 90th ========== ==== ==== ==== ==== ==== 12.0% 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.2 10.6 11.5-11.9% 8.2 8.5 9.4 9.9 10.2 11.0-11.4% 6.5 7.3 8.2 9.2 9.5 10.5-10.9% 7.2 7.7 8.0 8.6 9.0 10.0-10.4% 6.8 ...
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