Wood, Doyle, Abbott, Moreno, Garrett

Can Wood rebound from poor 2H? … James Wood (OF, WAS) enjoyed a breakout season in 2025, batting .256 with 31 HR and 15 SB in 689 PA. However, he struggled to the tune of a .226 BA, 9 HR, and 57% ct% in the second half. How are things under the hood?

Year	PA	HR/xHR	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	PX/xPX	Brl%	HR/F	SB	Spd/SBO/SB%
2024*	566	16/12	.281/.265	12/71	56/22/22	37	117/97	11%	20%	21	111/19%/70%
2025	689	31/33	.256/.258	13/63	49/23/26	35	165/106	16%	31%	15	98/13%/68%
2H-25	316	9/9	.226/.239	9/57	49/32/18	35	145/66	13%	30%	4	80/10%/57%

It’s a mixed bag:

• He possesses immense power, as evidenced by 98th percentile HH% and 94th% Brl%, but GB% caps the HR potential. There figures to be a touch of HR/F pullback, so he'll need to upgrade his FB% to try to offset that.
• The ct% issues are a concern, but his 95th percentile bat speed and 76th percentile Chase% are reason for optimism. It’s also worth noting that his 56% Zone Swing% is far below the MLB average of 67%. Perhaps being more aggressive on pitches in the strike zone could be part of the solution.
• His 89th percentile bb% gives his OBP a boost.
• He owns slightly above-average sprint speed (down from 85th percentile in 2024 to 62nd percentile in 2025) and a poor SB% could cause his SBO% to diminish further, so there is possible SB downside.

Despite a tough second half, Wood put together an impressive age-22 season. While the ct% problems can’t be ignored, his elite bat speed and patience offer hope for improvement. If he can also swap a few GB% for FB%, look out. There is risk at his current 31 ADP, but the upside is tantalizing.

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Can Doyle regain his 2024 level production? … Brenton Doyle (OF, COL) failed to match his 2024 breakthrough campaign, as he batted just .235 with 15 HR and 18 SB in 538 PA. What can we expect in 2026?

Year	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	Brl%	HR/F	Spd/SBO/SB%
2023	431	10/23	.208/.210	5/62	47/18/34	30%	96	99/121	9%	12%	153/37%/82%
2024	603	23/30	.260/.244	7/71	41/20/38	32%	109	119/138	11%	14%	130/25%/85%
2025	538	15/18	.235/.234	5/72	46/17/36	29%	95	95/113	11%	11%	129/18%/90%

The underlying metrics suggest at least a partial rebound:

• A rough 1H was primarily due to an unfortunate 24% h%. Positive regression took hold in 2H, balancing out his BA to an xBA that wasn’t far from his 2024 mark.
• Meanwhile, his Brl% was unchanged from 2024 and his HH% went up from 41.4% to 44.6%. The capacity for 20 HR is still there.
• His combination of elite speed and efficiency on the basepaths gives him a chance for 20+ SB.

Doyle coped with personal tragedy as he and his wife lost their unborn baby in April 2025, so that must be kept in mind when assessing his on-field performance. The 27-year-old still displayed skills that were very similar to 2024 and even a tick better in a few areas. Though there will certainly be severe ups and downs as he navigates the drastic home/away splits that face all Rockies players, he’s a good bet to return to 20 HR/ 20 SB and maybe even approach 30 SB.

 

Is Abbott for real? … A shoulder injury delayed Andrew Abbott’s (LHP, CIN) 2025 season debut until April 12, but he finished the season with a shiny 2.87 ERA (9th best among qualified MLB pitchers) and 1.15 WHIP in 166 IP. Was it a mirage?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2023*	166	3.44/3.80	10%/26%	8%	11.5%	29/20/52	29/78	11%	92.8	112
2024	138	3.72/4.94	8%/19%	8%	10.0%	33/16/48	30/79	12%	92.8	61
2025	166	2.87/4.37	6%/21%	6%	11.4%	31/20/47	30/80	8%	92.8	113
2H-25	86	3.87/4.50	5%/20%	6%	11.5%	32/21/44	32/72	8%	93.3	110
*Includes MLEs

Yes:

• The 26-year-old's SwK% bounced back from 2024, but his K% ranked in the 44th percentile (MLB average for starting pitchers: 22%) and SwK% doesn’t suggest further K% upside.
• The BB% gains, from 35th percentile to 79th percentile, was supported by a heightened focus on getting ahead in the count and pounding the strike zone.
• A fortuitous S% and HR/F contributed to the gargantuan gap between ERA and xERA. He led all qualified pitchers with a 15% IFFB%. That explains some of the disparity, but not all.
• After sporting a 1.79 ERA and 4.23 xERA in the 1H, negative regression arrived. The 2H line, including a 1.27 WHIP, bears a much stronger resemblance to what we would typically see from that skill set.

Prior to 2025, Abbott sported a combined 3.78 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 13% K-BB% in 247 IP with an xERA in the high-4s. That looks an awful lot like that 2H-25 line. Don’t pay for more than that and know that there is some downside risk. 

 

Can Moreno take another step forward? … 2025 was another injury-marred season for Gabriel Moreno (C, ARI), as a fractured right index finger sidelined him for about 10 weeks. He finished the season with a .285 BA and 9 HR in 309 MLB PA. How are the skills holding up?

Year	PA	HR/SB	BA/xBA	bb%/ct%	GB/LD/FB	h%	HctX	PX/xPX	Brl%	HR/F	Spd/SBO/SB%
2022*	335	4/5	.287/.246	7/81	57/18/25	34	65	56/27	2%	7%	113/7%/83%
2023	380	7/6	.284/.270	7/78	54/23/21	34	99	78/63	5%	11%	102/8%/75%
2024	351	5/3	.266/.256	11/82	49/18/32	30	129	75/91	7%	6%	94/4%/75%
2025	309	9/2	.285/.261	10/80	38/23/37	32	96	86/101	7%	10%	145/4%/50%
*Includes MLEs

They are in fine shape:

• Above-average ct% and bb% along with a lifetime .282 BA/.262 xBA set a firm BA and OBP foundation.
• Moreno posted a career-high xPX while maintaining his 2024’s Brl% gains and again increasing his average launch angle, going from 4.2 degrees in 2023 to 8.8 in 2024 to 14.4 in 2025. His Pull AIR% also continued its upward trend, rising from 6.2% in 2023 to 7.8% in 2024 to 14.6% in 2025 (MLB average: 16.7%). All of this points to the possibility for some additional HR upside.
• He’s also capable of chipping in a few SB, which is a nice bonus from a catcher.

Moreno continues to develop with each season, but injuries have cost him substantial playing time in three consecutive seasons. There are signs beneath that surface that he could have a little more HR potential to go along with the strong BA and OBP. The 26-year-old is a fine choice at his 174 ADP and is capable of a breakout season, if his health cooperates. 

 

Garrett is on the comeback trail … Braxton Garrett (LHP, MIA) enjoyed a strong 2023 campaign, posting a 3.66 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 159 IP, but injuries (shoulder, flexor strain) limited him to 63 IP combined between MLB and Triple-A in 2024. He then missed the entire 2025 season recovering from December 2024 UCL surgery (internal brace). Is he someone to watch this spring?

Year	IP	ERA/xERA	BB%/K%	xBB%	SwK	GB/LD/FB	H%/S%	HR/F	Vel	BPX
2021*	120	4.81/4.50	10%/20%	8%	9.7%	36/32/26	33/69	11%	90.1	28
2022*	122	3.46/3.27	6%/22%	5%	12.4%	47/21/31	31/74	12%	91.3	144
2023	160	3.66/3.46	4%/23%	6%	11.5%	49/22/28	33/72	15%	90.5	144
2024*	63	4.57/3.59	4%/21%	6%	9.8%	51/19/30	32/65	14%	90.2	173
2025	Did not pitch (recovery from UCL surgery)
*Includes MLEs

Yes, he has displayed intriguing skills in the past:

• He showcased an elite BB% in 2023 (97th percentile). It didn’t quite have full xBB% backing, but even a 6% BB% would still be a couple points better than average (MLB average among SP: 8%).
• Garrett’s K% was just a tick above-average in 2023, but when coupled with that terrific BB%, gave him a stellar 19% K-BB% that ranked 17th among pitchers with a minimum 150 IP.
• His xERA and a 1.11 xWHIP in 2023 show there could be a touch of upside.
• He has typically done a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, which has helped him keep the ball in the yard (lifetime: 14% HR/F in 326 MLB IP) and work out of jams.

Garrett arrived at spring training 2026 ready to roll and has already touched 95 mph in live batting practice. Back in 2023, he threw a sinker 32% of the time and featured three offerings with a SwK% better than 13%, led by the slider with a 21% SwK%/51% GB% (26% usage) and a change-up that garnered a 16% SwK%/61% GB% (9% usage). The 28-year-old has an “F” health grade in the 2026 Baseball Forecaster and figures to deal with workload restrictions in 2026, but given his 499 ADP since January 1, he’s well worth the gamble. 

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