Naylor, Wong, Houck, Stroman, Varsho

Naylor finds his HR stroke  … Josh Naylor (1B, CLE) is headed to Arlington to start at first base for the AL after mashing 22 1H HRs – already a career-best. How legitimate is the power surge?

YearPAHRSBBABB%ct%h%HctXxBAG/L/FxPXHR/FBrl%
202124971.2536%80%28%920.25449/18/318511%7%
2022508206.2598%82%27%1200.27548/17/3411615%9%
20234991710.3078%84%33%1170.28243/20/3710011%8%
2024369224.24511%80%24%1130.28646/17/3714522%11%

Naylor is flexing his impressive plate skills, but the 1H HR barrage is more a product of good fortune:

  • Naylor is hitting fly balls at roughly the same pace as he did in ‘23 but twice as many are leaving the park, and we know that the three previous seasons' HR/F is strongly predictive.
  • The good news: He's barreling more...

Almost!

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