Naylor, Wong, Houck, Stroman, Varsho

Naylor finds his HR stroke  … Josh Naylor (1B, CLE) is headed to Arlington to start at first base for the AL after mashing 22 1H HRs – already a career-best. How legitimate is the power surge?

Year	PA	HR	SB	BA	BB%	ct%	h%	HctX	xBA	G/L/F	xPX	HR/F	Brl%
2021	249	7	1	.253	6%	80%	28%	92	0.254	49/18/31	85	11%	7%
2022	508	20	6	.259	8%	82%	27%	120	0.275	48/17/34	116	15%	9%
2023	499	17	10	.307	8%	84%	33%	117	0.282	43/20/37	100	11%	8%
2024	369	22	4	.245	11%	80%	24%	113	0.286	46/17/37	145	22%	11%

Naylor is flexing his impressive plate skills, but the 1H HR barrage is more a product of good fortune:

• Naylor is hitting fly balls at roughly the same pace as he did in ‘23 but twice as many are leaving the park, and we know that the three previous seasons' HR/F is strongly predictive.
• The good news: He's barreling more...

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