SPECULATOR: Switching it up
Jan 27 2021
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Sage advice and a foundational piece to our fanalytic toolbox, but here in the Speculator we can bend the rules. As we search for new ways to dissect the data from last year's 60-game sprint, we'll use pitch-level data to identify starters who changed their approach by switching up their pitch mix. The idea is that with a new arsenal, they're a different pitcher than they were before and more likely to repeat 2020's success over a longer haul.
The poster boy for this type of analysis is Lucas Giolito (RHP, CHW). Giolito had some of the worst ratios in baseball before breaking out in 2019, when he ditched his mediocre curveball for more elite change-ups and picked up almost 2mph on his...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
With most pitchers 3-4 starts in, we dive into the sub-indicators to see who's rising and falling.
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Apr 15 2026 3:06am
Using our Quality of Batted Ball (QBaB) metric to make some speculative hitter snap judgments.
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
Apr 8 2026 3:06am
Baseball is back, and it's time to overreact... because what else are we supposed to do?
Apr 1 2026 3:08am
Apr 1 2026 3:08am
Our Opening Day Eve tradition speculating on the top category producers who went late in drafts.
Mar 25 2026 3:07am
Mar 25 2026 3:07am
If history is any guide, this year's end-of-season Top 15 will come from all stages of the draft.
Mar 18 2026 3:08am
Mar 18 2026 3:08am
