SPECULATOR: The Robbie Ray question
Mar 16 2022
Who's this year's Robbie Ray?
It's a question that, frankly, has been played out on other podcasts or on Twitter during the lockout. But it's still an important one worth diving into… using our own speculative data-driven approach, of course.
On one hand, nobody could see Robbie Ray (LHP, SEA)'s 2021 breakout coming. Ray posted the league's worst walk rate in 2020 (18% BB%) with a brutal 6.62 ERA that was just as bad beneath the surface (6.14 xERA). Yours truly had Ray's box in the 2021 Baseball Forecaster just before his breakout season, concluding that "avoiding recency bias could yield modest profit." But I can't tell you I saw this coming with anything close to a straight face.
But were there signs of a breakout lingering further in...
Almost!
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