SPECULATOR: Recent surgers and faders, 2019
Jun 19 2019
The weight of early season numbers—It's one of the many insightful sections packed inside the Encyclopedia of Fanalytics in the Baseball Forecaster every year. From page 18 of the 2019 version:
Early season strugglers who surge later in the year often get little respect because they have to live with the weight of their early numbers all season long. Conversely, quick starters who fade late get far more accolades than they deserve.
We always supplement this concept with an example from the previous season. In 2018 it was Odubel Herrera, who hit over .285 in just one month (April), yet held a .285+ cumulative BA for half the season:
Month BA Cum BA ======= ==== ====== Mar-Apr .343 .343 May .283 .313 June .236 ...
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