SPECULATOR: Recency bias rebounds, 2023
Feb 22 2023
We say it every year, but the market focuses wayyy too much on last season. We can't repeat this BaseballHQ axiom enough (though we try):
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias, as last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are discounted, and previous track records are forgotten.
So this week, we're granting mulligans for certain 2022 performances. Perhaps the players we're about to list played through a hidden injury, tried a new approach that didn't work, or just simply had a bad year (it happens). To help...
Almost!
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