SPECULATOR: Recency bias rebounds, 2020 pitchers
Mar 4 2020
Last week in this space, we started a crusade against "recency bias" with hitters whose draft costs are overly influenced by last year's stats.
This week, the journey continues with a trip to the mound. There are several pitchers who were being drafted as aces or top relievers this time last year, but for whatever reason—injury, a drop in previously-stable skills, or just plain old bad luck—the market has soured and their prices have sunk. A couple of simple filters for our list:
- Pitchers with a Top 300 ADP as of March 1, 2020.
- Hitters with more than a $5 drop in "pick value" ($$$) from 2019 to 2020.
- For details, see Mapping ADPs to auction value on Page 54 in the 2020 Baseball Forecaster.
Pitchers with write-ups are in bold; feel...
Almost!
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