SPECULATOR: Recency bias rebounds, 2020 pitchers
Mar 4 2020
Last week in this space, we started a crusade against "recency bias" with hitters whose draft costs are overly influenced by last year's stats.
This week, the journey continues with a trip to the mound. There are several pitchers who were being drafted as aces or top relievers this time last year, but for whatever reason—injury, a drop in previously-stable skills, or just plain old bad luck—the market has soured and their prices have sunk. A couple of simple filters for our list:
- Pitchers with a Top 300 ADP as of March 1, 2020.
- Hitters with more than a $5 drop in "pick value" ($$$) from 2019 to 2020.
- For details, see Mapping ADPs to auction value on Page 54 in the 2020 Baseball Forecaster.
Pitchers with write-ups are in bold; feel...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
Applying lessons learned from George Springer's 2025 breakout to this year's player pool
Mar 4 2026 3:04am
Mar 4 2026 3:04am
This week's exercise is all about picking holes to help avoid early-round busts.
Feb 25 2026 3:10am
Feb 25 2026 3:10am
Sure, they struggled last year, but if we remove some recency bias, granting mulligans could be a lucrative exercise.
Feb 18 2026 3:06am
Feb 18 2026 3:06am
Our annual look at who changed their pitch mix the most in-season last year, and (most importantly) whether it worked.
Feb 11 2026 3:06am
Feb 11 2026 3:06am
Could Jakob Marsee lead the majors in plate appearances? We'll take our component playing time metrics for a spin to see who could bubble up.
Feb 4 2026 8:30am
Feb 4 2026 8:30am
