SPECULATOR: Fighting recency bias—batters
Mar 7 2018
Regression is our game's most powerful force.
Once you display a skill, you own it.
We can't repeat these BHQ-isms enough (though we try). Putting stock in a player's most recent performance to guide your decisions—often referred to as recency bias—is a natural tendency. Resist the urge. Fighting off recency bias can give you a leg up on draft day.
Our marketplace tends to be littered with recency bias. Last year's breakouts are often fully priced, last year's duds are often discounted, and previous track records are often forgotten.
Since 2015, 96 hitters have seen their Average Draft Position (ADP) drop by 100+ picks in back-to-back seasons (to reduce injury bias, we're only including hitters with 200+ AB in both seasons).
- 59 of...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
The world-renowned (kind of) #BloomBoards make their way to the Speculator. Three of them to sift through!
Jun 17 2026 3:07am
Jun 17 2026 3:07am
They don't all hit the ground running. We apply the longstanding "10-step path to prospect stardom" to this year's player pool.
Jun 10 2026 3:06am
Jun 10 2026 3:06am
A tour through some in-season QBaB leaderboards, including YTD best/worst scores and risers over the last month.
Jun 3 2026 3:08am
Jun 3 2026 3:08am
After last week's in-season "UP"side column, it's time to strike a more pessimistic tune.
May 27 2026 3:07am
May 27 2026 3:07am
With enough of the season in the rearview, we're ready to speculate with some revised "UP" side projections.
May 20 2026 3:07am
May 20 2026 3:07am
