SPECULATOR: Batter & pitcher breakout profiles, 2018
Feb 12 2018
Way back in June 2007, I wrote a pair of research articles looking at "breakout seasons" for batters and pitchers, which we defined as a season in which a player posts a Rotisserie value of $20 or higher having previously never posted a Rotisserie value higher than $10 at the major league level. The batter study consisted of 38 players from 2000-06 who achieved that feat, and the pitcher study covered 31 players from that same time period, with each study looking at age as well as skill minimums and skill changes that the players had in common. That generated a list of breakout criteria, which we then used to identify players from 2007 that might be in the midst of a breakout season.
Those articles had more in common with the kind of...
Almost!
You’re just a few clicks away from accessing this feature and hundreds more throughout the year that have a singular goal in mind: Winning your league. Subscribe to BaseballHQ.com here!
Already a subscriber? Sign in here
More From Speculator
What lessons can we apply from Drew Rasmussen's 2025 breakout to this year's player pool?
Mar 11 2026 8:36am
Mar 11 2026 8:36am
Applying lessons learned from George Springer's 2025 breakout to this year's player pool
Mar 4 2026 3:04am
Mar 4 2026 3:04am
This week's exercise is all about picking holes to help avoid early-round busts.
Feb 25 2026 3:10am
Feb 25 2026 3:10am
Sure, they struggled last year, but if we remove some recency bias, granting mulligans could be a lucrative exercise.
Feb 18 2026 3:06am
Feb 18 2026 3:06am
Our annual look at who changed their pitch mix the most in-season last year, and (most importantly) whether it worked.
Feb 11 2026 3:06am
Feb 11 2026 3:06am
